Liverpool vs Crystal Palace – 25 Apr 2026

Premier League Gameweek 34 Sat, Apr 25 · 15:00 Anfield, Liverpool

Liverpool 5th · 55 pts · 33 played LDLWW

3–1Full time

Crystal Palace 13th · 43 pts · 32 played LWDWD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Liverpool were clear favourites.

Liverpool were the stronger side on L90 Strength (85 vs 66). Liverpool had 6 days of rest, Crystal Palace 4.8 and had to travel 286 km.

Away travel286 kmRest days6 · 4.8Matches / 14d2 · 2

Liverpool62%

Draw21%

Crystal Palace17%

Expected goals 2.18 – 1.09

Liverpool59%

Draw23%

Crystal Palace18%

Expected goals 1.90 – 0.94

Liverpool62%

Draw21%

Crystal Palace17%

Expected goals 2.15 – 1.07

Liverpool54%

Draw23%

Crystal Palace23%

Expected goals 1.94 – 1.22

Liverpool60%

Draw22%

Crystal Palace18%

Expected goals 2.00 – 1.00

Over 2.5 63% Both score 59% Likeliest score 2–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Liverpool)

No weather data yet

RefereeAndy Madley

Cards per match 3.4
Penalties per match 0.17
Matches 138

Team strength

Liverpool

Crystal Palace

85 L90 StrengthIn forecast 66

83 Current StrengthIn forecast 62

85 AttackIn forecast 64

84 DefenceIn forecast 54

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Liverpool

Attack—

Defense risk—

Crystal Palace

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Liverpool

Crystal Palace

1.64 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.09

1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.13

1.62 xGVia Att/Def 1.53

1.18 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.29

+0.02 Goals minus xGContext -0.44

88% Scored inContext 69%

30% Clean sheetsContext 38%

15.70 ShotsContext 11.56

4.72 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.74

29% On target shareContext 31%

10.24 Shots in the boxContext 8.52

65% Box shareContext 72%

10% ConversionContext 10%

2.44 OffsidesContext 2.22

11.27 Shots allowedContext 11.28

4.06 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.32

3.45 BlocksContext 3.07

2.80 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.24

68% Save rateContext 71%

60% PossessionIn forecast 46%

536 PassesContext 397

460 Accurate passesContext 310

86% Pass accuracyContext 78%

6.95 Team ratingContext 6.90

9.76 FoulsContext 10.97

10.36 Fouls sufferedContext 9.66

1.48 Yellow cardsContext 2.03

0.03 Red cardsContext 0.03

This league season, per match · 33 and 32 games

1.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40

1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.70

1.77 xGVia Att/Def 1.70

1.26 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.87

-0.17 Goals minus xGContext -0.30

70% Scored inContext 70%

20% Clean sheetsContext 50%

16.70 ShotsContext 12.60

6.67 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00

36% On target shareContext 29%

11.00 Shots in the boxContext 8.90

63% Box shareContext 70%

10% ConversionContext 11%

2.25 OffsidesContext 1.89

12.00 Shots allowedContext 9.10

4.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.50

3.33 BlocksContext 3.11

3.20 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.50

71% Save rateContext 78%

53% PossessionIn forecast 55%

461 PassesContext 472

380 Accurate passesContext 394

82% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.92 Team ratingContext 6.99

11.90 FoulsContext 13.90

9.10 Fouls sufferedContext 11.10

1.60 Yellow cardsContext 1.90

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Liverpool

Rest6 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Crystal Palace

Rest4.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel286 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Liverpool	Crystal Palace
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6Premier League 2025-2026, 19 Apr	4.8Premier League 2025-2026, 20 Apr
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	286 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 2	1 / 2 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	8	8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Liverpool Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

28F. Woodman(G)

26A. Robertson 4V. van Dijk 5I. Konaté 17C. Jones

10A. Mac Allister 8D. Szoboszlai

18C. Gakpo 7F. Wirtz 11Mohamed Salah

9A. Isak

+8 more reported missing outside this XI

Crystal Palace Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

1D. Henderson(G)

23J. Canvot 5M. Lacroix 26Chris Richards

3T. Mitchell 20A. Wharton 18Daichi Kamada 2D. Muñoz

11B. Johnson 7I. Sarr

14J. Mateta

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Liverpool Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Crystal Palace Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Liverpool+0.2 pp
Draw-0.2 pp
Crystal Palace+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Liverpool · Home 1.94points per game · 16 home games

W-D-L: 9-4-3
Scored: 1.81
Conceded: 1.06

Crystal Palace · Away 1.53points per game · 15 away games

W-D-L: 7-2-6
Scored: 1.27
Conceded: 1.13

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Liverpool	Crystal Palace
Everton	W 2–1 AW 2–1 H	L 1–2 A
Fulham	W 2–0 HD 2–2 A	D 1–1 HW 2–1 A
Brighton	L 1–2 AW 2–0 H	W 1–0 AD 0–0 H
Tottenham	D 1–1 HW 2–1 A	W 3–1 AL 0–1 H
Wolves	L 1–2 AW 2–1 H	W 1–0 HW 2–0 A
West Ham	W 5–2 HW 2–0 A	D 0–0 HW 2–1 A
Nottingham Forest	W 1–0 AL 0–3 H	D 1–1 AD 1–1 H
Sunderland	W 1–0 AD 1–1 H	L 1–2 AD 0–0 H
Manchester City	L 1–2 HL 0–3 A	L 0–3 H
Newcastle	W 4–1 HW 3–2 A	W 2–1 HL 0–2 A
Bournemouth	L 2–3 AW 4–2 H	D 3–3 H
Burnley	D 1–1 HW 1–0 A	L 2–3 HW 1–0 A
Arsenal	D 0–0 AW 1–0 H	L 0–1 A
Leeds	D 0–0 HD 3–3 A	D 0–0 HL 1–4 A
Aston Villa	W 2–0 H	D 0–0 HW 3–0 A
Brentford	L 2–3 A	W 2–0 H
Manchester United	L 1–2 H	L 1–2 AL 1–2 H
Chelsea	L 1–2 A	L 1–3 HD 0–0 A
Points	55 of 96 · 1.72 per game	40 of 93 · 1.29 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings

5 Liverpool wins3 draws2 Crystal Palace wins

Goals per game1.40 – 0.70 Over 2.540% Both scored50% Clean sheets40% · 20%

27 Sep 2025Crystal Palace2–1Liverpool
25 May 2025Liverpool1–1Crystal Palace
5 Oct 2024Crystal Palace0–1Liverpool
14 Apr 2024Liverpool0–1Crystal Palace
9 Dec 2023Crystal Palace1–2Liverpool
25 Feb 2023Crystal Palace0–0Liverpool

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Liverpool	Crystal Palace	Forecast
Scored per game	1.64	1.09
Conceded per game	1.30	1.13
Match goals	2.94	2.22	3.27
Over 1.5	82%	66%
Over 2.5	61%	47%	63%
Over 3.5	24%	16%
Both teams scored	64%	50%	59%
Clean sheets	30%	38%
Failed to score	12%	31%
Games	33	32

	Liverpool	Crystal Palace	Forecast
Scored per game	1.90	1.20
Conceded per game	1.10	1.10
Match goals	3.00	2.30	3.27
Over 1.5	80%	60%
Over 2.5	60%	50%	63%
Over 3.5	20%	30%
Both teams scored	70%	60%	59%
Clean sheets	30%	40%
Failed to score	0%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Liverpool	Crystal Palace	League
Corners
Corners won	6.16	4.19
Corners conceded	4.53	4.84
Match total	10.69	9.03	10.06
Over 8.5	78% 25/32	53% 17/32
Over 9.5	56% 18/32	44% 14/32
Over 10.5	47% 15/32	31% 10/32
Cards
Cards	1.52	2.09
Opponent cards	2.06	2.03
Match total	3.58	4.12	3.88
Over 3.5	45% 15/33	69% 22/32
Over 4.5	27% 9/33	56% 18/32

	Liverpool	Crystal Palace	League
Corners
Corners won	6.30	4.30
Corners conceded	3.80	3.90
Match total	10.10	8.20	10.06
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	30% 3/10
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	20% 2/10
Cards
Cards	1.60	2.00
Opponent cards	1.20	2.70
Match total	2.80	4.70	3.88
Over 3.5	30% 3/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Andy Madley 138 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.30league 3.75

Red cards0.12league 0.12

Cards 5+28%league 38%

Fouls23.1league 21.5

Penalties0.17league 0.21

Home wins46%league 42%

Liverpool16 with this referee

Record8-5-3 Cards · opp.1.6 · 1.8 Pens for · against0 · 2

D17 Jan 26H · Burnley1–11
L22 Nov 25H · Nottingham Forest0–32
L19 May 25A · Brighton2–30
W13 Apr 25H · West Ham2–10
W18 Jan 25A · Brentford2–03

Crystal Palace16 with this referee

Record6-4-6 Cards · opp.1.9 · 1.9 Pens for · against5 · 0 Reds3

W12 Apr 26H · Newcastle2–10
W5 Mar 26A · Tottenham3–12
D7 Jan 26H · Aston Villa0–02
D5 May 25H · Nottingham Forest1–12
D2 Apr 25A · Southampton1–11

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.