Liverpool
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Manchester City were slight favourites.
Manchester City were the stronger side on L90 Strength (91 vs 84). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Manchester City. Liverpool were without J. Jacquet and C. Gakpo. Manchester City were without N. O'Reilly and P. Foden. Liverpool had 21.1 days of rest, Manchester City 21.1 and had to travel 50 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel50 kmRest days21.1 · 21.1Matches / 14d0 · 0
Liverpool33%
Draw23%
Manchester City43%
Liverpool35%
Draw26%
Manchester City39%
Liverpool34%
Draw24%
Manchester City42%
Liverpool26%
Draw22%
Manchester City51%
Liverpool33%
Draw24%
Manchester City42%
Over 2.5 61%
Both score 63%
Likeliest score 1–1
Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Liverpool)
15°COvercast
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 13 km/h
- Humidity 52%
RefereeChris Kavanagh
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.22
- Matches 172
Team strength
Liverpool
Manchester City
84
L90 StrengthIn forecast
91
84
Current StrengthIn forecast
91
85
AttackIn forecast
92
84
DefenceIn forecast
82
88
Form indexContext
97
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisManchester City
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LiverpoolManchester City
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.60
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.67
xGVia Att/Def
2.10
1.22
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.45
-0.27
Goals minus xGContext
+0.50
80%
Scored inContext
100%
60%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
15.20
ShotsContext
13.60
4.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.40
32%
On target shareContext
40%
9.00
Shots in the boxContext
10.40
59%
Box shareContext
72%
9%
ConversionContext
19%
2.20
OffsidesContext
2.25
11.60
Shots allowedContext
11.80
3.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
3.80
BlocksContext
2.75
2.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.80
78%
Save rateContext
70%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
63%
515
PassesContext
629
441
Accurate passesContext
561
86%
Pass accuracyContext
89%
7.07
Team ratingContext
7.24
13.00
FoulsContext
10.60
10.20
Fouls sufferedContext
13.40
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.30
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
1.60
xGVia Att/Def
2.03
1.33
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.25
-0.10
Goals minus xGContext
+0.27
90%
Scored inContext
100%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
15.10
ShotsContext
15.80
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.90
33%
On target shareContext
37%
9.60
Shots in the boxContext
11.00
63%
Box shareContext
68%
10%
ConversionContext
15%
2.30
OffsidesContext
1.86
11.60
Shots allowedContext
9.60
4.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.44
3.30
BlocksContext
2.22
2.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.56
67%
Save rateContext
74%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
62%
502
PassesContext
600
431
Accurate passesContext
534
86%
Pass accuracyContext
89%
6.93
Team ratingContext
7.14
12.20
FoulsContext
10.30
11.10
Fouls sufferedContext
11.80
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Liverpool
DWWDW
Rest21.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 88 · 11 pts vs 5.5 for an average club · +2.0 vs expected
Manchester City
WWWWW
Rest21.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel50 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 97 · 15 pts vs 5.6 for an average club · +5.1 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Liverpool |
Manchester City |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 21.1Premier League 2026-2027, 20 Sep | 21.1Premier League 2026-2027, 20 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 50 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 1 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3.1 | 3.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Liverpool
Confirmed XI
1A. Becker(G)
6M. Kerkez
4V. van Dijk
5J. Jacquet
33R. Araujo
10A. Mac Allister
38R. Gravenberch
29B. Barcola
7F. Wirtz
23Víctor Muñoz
67L. Koumas
Manchester City
Confirmed XI
1G. Donnarumma(G)
33N. O'Reilly
6A. Guéhi
3Rúben Dias
27M. Nunes
17E. Fernández
5E. Anderson
42A. Semenyo
10M. Cherki
7I. Ndiaye
9E. Haaland
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Liverpool
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.06 goals
Attack line −27.8% · Defence line −20.2% of weighted minutes
- DEF J. Jacquet Core 7.42 Def −18.9%
- ATT C. Gakpo Starter 6.86 Att −17.2%
- ATT H. Ekitiké Rotation 6.86 Att −6.3%
- ATT A. Isak Rotation 6.73 Att −3.6%
- DEF C. Bradley Rotation 6.68 Def −1.3%
- ATT F. Chiesa Depth 6.52 Att −0.6%
Manchester City
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals
Attack line −9.5% · Defence line −9.1% of weighted minutes
- MID N. O'Reilly Starter 6.82 Att −5.4% Def −5.2%
- MID P. Foden Starter 7.00 Att −4.2% Def −4.0%
Total impact vs full squads
- Liverpool-1.1 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Manchester City+1.3 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Liverpool · Home
1.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Manchester City · Away
3.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-0
- Scored
- 2.50
- Conceded
- 0.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Liverpool | Manchester City |
|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth | W 1–0 A | W 2–1 H |
| Points | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 12 meetings
3 Liverpool wins4 draws3 Manchester City wins
Goals per game1.30 – 1.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored60%
Clean sheets30% · 10%
- 8 Feb 2026Liverpool1–2Manchester City
- 9 Nov 2025Manchester City3–0Liverpool
- 23 Feb 2025Manchester City0–2Liverpool
- 1 Dec 2024Liverpool2–0Manchester City
- 10 Mar 2024Liverpool1–1Manchester City
- 25 Nov 2023Manchester City1–1Liverpool
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Liverpool | Manchester City | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 2.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.80 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 3.60 | 3.16 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 60% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% | 63% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 0% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Liverpool | Manchester City | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 2.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 0.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 3.10 | 3.16 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 60% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% | 63% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Liverpool | Manchester City | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 6.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.40 | 4.20 | |
| Match total | 8.40 | 10.40 | 9.42 |
| Over 8.5 | 20% 1/5 | 80% 4/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 1/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 1/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 1.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.40 | |
| Match total | 4.40 | 2.80 | 4.04 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 3/5 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 2/5 | 0% 0/5 | |
| Liverpool | Manchester City | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.70 | 7.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.80 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 9.50 | 11.00 | 9.42 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 4.30 | 3.30 | 4.04 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Chris Kavanagh 172 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.92league 3.84
Red cards0.14league 0.14
Cards 5+40%league 41%
Fouls22.0league 23.0
Penalties0.22league 0.16
Home wins40%league 38%
Liverpool24 with this referee
Record13-5-6
Cards · opp.1.1 · 1.7
Pens for · against2 · 1
- L15 May 26A · Aston Villa2–41
- W19 Apr 26A · Everton2–10
- D15 Mar 26H · Tottenham1–10
- W11 Feb 26A · Sunderland1–00
- D1 Jan 26H · Leeds0–00
Manchester City13 with this referee
Record9-2-2
Cards · opp.1.6 · 2.2
Pens for · against3 · 1
- W12 Apr 26A · Chelsea3–01
- W9 Nov 25H · Liverpool3–02
- L8 Mar 25A · Nottingham Forest0–12
- L1 Dec 24A · Liverpool0–23
- W20 Oct 24A · Wolves2–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Liverpool5 games · scored 7 · conceded 4
2
1
0-15
1
16-30
31-45
3
1
46-60
1
61-75
2
76-90
Manchester City5 games · scored 13 · conceded 5
1
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
4
2
46-60
61-75
4
76-90
Liverpool10 games · scored 15 · conceded 14
3
3
0-15
2
16-30
1
2
31-45
8
2
46-60
3
61-75
3
2
76-90
Manchester City10 games · scored 23 · conceded 8
1
1
0-15
4
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
6
3
46-60
1
1
61-75
8
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
