Lommel United
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Lommel United34.5%fair odds 2.90
Draw26.9%fair odds 3.72
Gent38.6%fair odds 2.59
Expected goals1.32 – 1.41total 2.73
Likeliest score1–112.8%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Gent
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Lommel United ↓ · Gent → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 8.6 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 12.8 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.0 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Lommel United goals, columns Gent goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.8%7.82
- 1–28.6%11.69
- 0–18.6%11.70
- 2–18.0%12.48
- 1–08.0%12.55
- 0–07.2%13.96
- 0–26.5%15.43
- 2–05.7%17.59
- 2–25.6%17.70
- 1–34.0%24.87
Winning margin
5.5%
Lommel United by 3+
fair 18.30
10.1%
Lommel United by 2
fair 9.86
18.9%
Lommel United by 1
fair 5.29
26.9%
Draw
fair 3.72
20.2%
Gent by 1
fair 4.95
11.6%
Gent by 2
fair 8.65
6.8%
Gent by 3+
fair 14.66
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
17%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
14%5+
Lommel United goals
27%0
35%1
23%2
10%3
5%4+
Gent goals
24%0
34%1
24%2
11%3
5%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lommel United win | 34.5% | 34.9% | -0.4 pp |
| Draw | 26.9% | 26.4% | +0.6 pp |
| Gent win | 38.6% | 38.8% | -0.2 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 51.4% | 53.8% | -2.4 pp |
| Both teams score | 56.0% | 57.9% | -1.9 pp |
| Expected goals Lommel United | 1.32 | 1.37 | -0.05 |
| Expected goals Gent | 1.41 | 1.46 | -0.05 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Lommel United win34.5%2.90
- Draw26.9%3.72
- Gent win38.6%2.59
- Double chance Lommel United or draw61.4%1.63
- Double chance Lommel United or Gent73.1%1.37
- Double chance Gent or draw65.5%1.53
- Draw no bet Lommel United47.2%2.12
- Draw no bet Gent52.8%1.89
Goals
- Over 0.592.8%1.08
- Over 1.576.3%1.31
- Over 2.551.4%1.95
- Over 3.529.3%3.42
- Over 4.514.2%7.06
- Under 1.523.7%4.22
- Under 2.548.6%2.06
- Under 3.570.7%1.41
Both teams to score
- Yes56.0%1.78
- No44.0%2.27
- Yes and over 2.543.3%2.31
- Lommel United win and yes17.2%5.80
- Draw and yes19.7%5.06
- Gent win and yes19.1%5.25
Team goals
- Lommel United over 0.573.3%1.36
- Lommel United over 1.538.0%2.63
- Lommel United over 2.514.8%6.78
- Gent over 0.575.6%1.32
- Gent over 1.541.2%2.43
- Gent over 2.516.9%5.92
- Lommel United clean sheet24.4%4.09
- Gent clean sheet26.7%3.74
- Lommel United win to nil17.3%5.79
- Gent win to nil19.5%5.12
Handicap
- Lommel United −1.515.6%6.41
- Lommel United −2.55.5%18.30
- Gent +1.584.4%1.18
- Gent +2.594.5%1.06
- Gent −1.518.4%5.44
- Lommel United +1.581.6%1.23
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Belgian Pro League 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored72
Favourite won61.1%
Avg chance given to result45.0%
1X2 Brier0.511
Over 2.5 called right56.9%
BTTS called right44.4%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 8 | 38.4% | 25.0% |
| 40–50% | 30 | 45.4% | 46.7% |
| 50–60% | 19 | 55.0% | 78.9% |
| 60–70% | 7 | 64.8% | 85.7% |
| 70–80% | 5 | 72.9% | 100.0% |
| 80%+ | 3 | 83.9% | 66.7% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 47 of 72 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5318 | 0.5330 |
| Avg chance given to result | 43.5% | 43.2% |
| Favourite won | 59.6% | 63.8% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 47 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 72 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.