Lommel United
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It looks too close to call.
Gent are the stronger side on L90 Strength (46 vs 36). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Gent. Lommel United have 8.1 days of rest, Gent 7 and have to travel 113 km. Conditions look neutral.
Away travel113 kmRest days8.1 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Lommel United35%
Draw27%
Gent39%
Lommel United38%
Draw27%
Gent35%
Lommel United35%
Draw27%
Gent39%
Lommel United28%
Draw26%
Gent46%
Lommel United35%
Draw26%
Gent39%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
EloLambda forecast, updated 9 minutes ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Lommel)
12°CPartly cloudy
- Precipitation 15%
- Wind 16 km/h
- Humidity 84%
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Lommel United and Gent. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Insight
Gent
+0.35
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.42xG against1.07
-
Insight
Gent
4
Clean sheets
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Trend
Gent
1.9
Goals scored per match
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Lommel United
3
Clean sheets
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet
Attack
-
Insight
Gent
+0.35
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.42xG against1.07
-
Trend
Gent
1.9
Goals scored per match
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Streak
Gent
8
Scoring in a row
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Scoring in a row
Defence
-
Insight
Gent
4
Clean sheets
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Insight
Gent
0.5
Goals conceded per match
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Lommel United
3
Clean sheets
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet
Team strength
Lommel UnitedGent
36
L90 StrengthIn forecast
46
36
Current StrengthIn forecast
46
32
AttackIn forecast
46
41
DefenceIn forecast
61
47
Form indexContext
84
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGent
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Lommel UnitedGent
1.13
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.88
1.13
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.50
1.13
xGVia Att/Def
1.31
1.15
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.60
+0.00
Goals minus xGContext
+0.57
50%
Scored inContext
100%
38%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
10.75
ShotsContext
12.38
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.13
28%
On target shareContext
41%
7.00
Shots in the boxContext
8.00
66%
Box shareContext
65%
11%
ConversionContext
15%
2.33
OffsidesContext
2.33
19.25
Shots allowedContext
10.63
4.63
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.13
6.50
BlocksContext
3.50
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.75
76%
Save rateContext
88%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
407
PassesContext
456
339
Accurate passesContext
386
83%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.86
Team ratingContext
7.07
7.00
FoulsContext
10.25
10.75
Fouls sufferedContext
9.88
1.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.38
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
1.13
xGVia Att/Def
1.42
1.15
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.07
+0.07
Goals minus xGContext
+0.08
50%
Scored inContext
80%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
10.50
ShotsContext
12.20
3.75
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.40
29%
On target shareContext
36%
7.00
Shots in the boxContext
8.10
66%
Box shareContext
67%
11%
ConversionContext
12%
2.33
OffsidesContext
2.29
18.80
Shots allowedContext
12.60
4.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.40
5.80
BlocksContext
3.80
3.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.60
75%
Save rateContext
82%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
403
PassesContext
453
331
Accurate passesContext
384
82%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.88
Team ratingContext
7.04
7.20
FoulsContext
10.00
11.40
Fouls sufferedContext
9.30
1.20
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Lommel United
WLLDW
Rest8.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km119 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 47 · 7 pts vs 7.3 for an average club · +0.9 vs expected
Gent
WWDWW
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel113 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 84 · 13 pts vs 8.4 for an average club · +5.0 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Lommel United |
Gent |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.1Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 24 Oct | 7Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 25 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 113 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 119 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 1 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.1 | 6.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Lommel United
Last XI · not confirmed
23M. Pieklak(G)
4S. Adewoye
8Nicolas Rommens
3T. Eyoma
2J. van Duiven
44I. Dada-Mascoll
15Lucas Schoofs
11S. Appuah
10Tom Reyners
7J. Talvitie
9D. Konadu
Gent
Last XI · not confirmed
33D. Roef(G)
44S. Van der Heyden
16C. Burgess
3M. Paskotši
20Tiago Araújo
17M. Delorge-Knieper
22Leonardo Lopes
45B. Goore
11M. Sonko
7M. Balikwisha
75Ibrahima Cisse
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Lommel United
No reported absences
Gent
No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
- Lommel United+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Gent+0.0 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Lommel United · Home
1.00points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-2
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.50
Gent · Away
2.50points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-1-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 0.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | Lommel United | Gent |
|---|---|---|
| KV Mechelen | D 0–0 H | W 2–0 H |
| Club Brugge KV | L 0–1 H | W 2–1 H |
| Cercle Brugge | W 1–0 A | W 3–0 A |
| Points | 4 of 9 · 1.33 per game | 9 of 9 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Lommel United | Gent | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.13 | 1.88 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.13 | 0.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.25 | 2.38 | 2.73 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 88% | |
| Over 2.5 | 38% | 50% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 38% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 25% | 50% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 38% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 0% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
| Lommel United | Gent | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.13 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.13 | 0.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.25 | 2.50 | 2.73 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 38% | 50% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 38% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 25% | 50% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 38% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 0% | |
| Games | 8 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Lommel United | Gent | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.50 | 5.14 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.88 | 3.71 | |
| Match total | 11.38 | 8.85 | 10.01 |
| Over 8.5 | 88% 7/8 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 75% 6/8 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 63% 5/8 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.63 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 2.63 | 3.00 | 3.36 |
| Over 3.5 | 25% 2/8 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 25% 2/8 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Lommel United | Gent | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.60 | 5.78 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.60 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 11.20 | 9.78 | 10.01 |
| Over 8.5 | 90% 9/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 80% 8/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.20 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 1.20 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 2.90 | 3.36 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Lommel United7 games · scored 9 · conceded 4
0-15
3
16-30
1
2
31-45
3
46-60
1
2
61-75
1
76-90
Gent8 games · scored 15 · conceded 4
2
1
0-15
2
16-30
4
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
61-75
5
76-90
Lommel United9 games · scored 12 · conceded 6
0-15
3
16-30
1
3
31-45
4
46-60
1
2
61-75
3
1
76-90
Gent10 games · scored 15 · conceded 9
2
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
4
4
31-45
2
2
46-60
61-75
5
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
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