Belgian Pro League Knockout phase Sat, Nov 28 · 19:45 Soeverein Stadion, Lommel
Lommel United 10th · 11 pts · 8 played
VS— Compare
Zulte Waregem 8th · 11 pts · 8 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel137 kmRest days6.1 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Real contextStrength only
Lommel United—%
Draw—%
Zulte Waregem—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Lommel)

Forecast from 13 Nov

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Lommel United and Zulte Waregem. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

Lommel UnitedZulte Waregem
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
36 Current StrengthIn forecast 30
32 AttackIn forecast 27
41 DefenceIn forecast 31
47 Form indexContext 17
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Lommel United

Attack—
Defense risk—

Zulte Waregem

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Lommel UnitedZulte Waregem
1.13 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.25
1.13 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.13
1.13 xGVia Att/Def 1.25
1.15 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.17
+0.00 Goals minus xGContext +0.00
50% Scored inContext 50%
38% Clean sheetsContext 38%
10.75 ShotsContext 12.63
4.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.25
28% On target shareContext 34%
7.00 Shots in the boxContext 8.13
66% Box shareContext 65%
11% ConversionContext 10%
2.33 OffsidesContext 2.80
19.25 Shots allowedContext 12.00
4.63 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.88
6.50 BlocksContext 3.13
3.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.63
76% Save rateContext 74%
44% PossessionIn forecast 43%
407 PassesContext 376
339 Accurate passesContext 304
83% Pass accuracyContext 81%
6.86 Team ratingContext 6.85
7.00 FoulsContext 11.50
10.75 Fouls sufferedContext 12.88
1.00 Yellow cardsContext 0.88
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.13
This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games
1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50
1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20
1.13 xGVia Att/Def 1.34
1.15 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.29
+0.07 Goals minus xGContext +0.16
50% Scored inContext 60%
40% Clean sheetsContext 30%
10.50 ShotsContext 13.10
3.75 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.60
29% On target shareContext 35%
7.00 Shots in the boxContext 8.20
66% Box shareContext 64%
11% ConversionContext 12%
2.33 OffsidesContext 3.00
18.80 Shots allowedContext 11.90
4.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.00
5.80 BlocksContext 3.11
3.30 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.60
75% Save rateContext 72%
45% PossessionIn forecast 45%
403 PassesContext 385
331 Accurate passesContext 308
82% Pass accuracyContext 80%
6.88 Team ratingContext 6.84
7.20 FoulsContext 11.00
11.40 Fouls sufferedContext 12.80
1.20 Yellow cardsContext 0.90
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Lommel United
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 47 · 7 pts vs 7.3 for an average club · +0.9 vs expected
  • W9 OctA · SK Beveren3–11.4 xPts
  • D19 SepH · KV Mechelen0–01.9 xPts
  • L12 SepA · Union St. Gilloise0–50.6 xPts
  • L4 SepH · Club Brugge KV0–11.0 xPts
  • W29 AugA · Cercle Brugge1–01.2 xPts
Zulte Waregem
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel137 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 17 · 4 pts vs 8.5 for an average club · -3.5 vs expected
  • L10 OctH · Gent0–21.3 xPts
  • L19 SepA · Anderlecht0–31.1 xPts
  • L13 SepH · Charleroi0–11.6 xPts
  • W6 SepA · Kortrijk2–01.8 xPts
  • D30 AugA · KVC Westerlo2–21.7 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Lommel United Zulte Waregem
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match6.1Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 22 Nov7Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 21 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km137 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways0 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 1 / 31 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one13.814

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Lommel United Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs SK Beveren (A) 3–1, 9 Oct
23M. Pieklak(G)
4S. Adewoye 8Nicolas Rommens 3T. Eyoma 2J. van Duiven
44I. Dada-Mascoll 15Lucas Schoofs
11S. Appuah 10Tom Reyners 7J. Talvitie
9D. Konadu
Zulte Waregem Last XI · not confirmed
4-3-3 · vs Gent (H) 0–2, 10 Oct
13B. Gabriël(G)
55Y. Cappelle 5Jakob Kiilerich 4L. Lemoine 23S. Diakité
11M. Aké 6E. Lofolomo 8T. Claes
20T. Hedl 18A. Ementa 10M. Mbaye

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Lommel United Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Zulte Waregem Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Lommel United · Home 1.00points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
1-1-2
Scored
1.00
Conceded
0.50
Zulte Waregem · Away 1.25points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
1-2-1
Scored
1.00
Conceded
1.25

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 4 this season

OpponentLommel UnitedZulte Waregem
SK Beveren W 3–1 A W 4–0 H
Union St. Gilloise L 0–5 A D 0–0 A
KVC Westerlo W 4–0 H D 2–2 A
Charleroi L 0–1 H L 0–1 H
Points6 of 12 · 1.50 per game5 of 12 · 1.25 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

Lommel UnitedZulte WaregemForecast
Scored per game 1.131.25
Conceded per game 1.131.13
Match goals 2.252.38
Over 1.5 50%75%
Over 2.5 38%50%
Over 3.5 38%25%
Both teams scored 25%25%
Clean sheets 38%38%
Failed to score 50%50%
Games88
Lommel UnitedZulte WaregemForecast
Scored per game 1.131.10
Conceded per game 1.131.10
Match goals 2.252.20
Over 1.5 50%70%
Over 2.5 38%40%
Over 3.5 38%20%
Both teams scored 25%20%
Clean sheets 38%40%
Failed to score 50%50%
Games810

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Lommel UnitedZulte WaregemLeague
Corners
Corners won3.504.50
Corners conceded7.885.25
Match total11.389.7510.01
Over 8.588% 7/875% 6/8
Over 9.575% 6/850% 4/8
Over 10.563% 5/838% 3/8
Cards
Cards1.001.00
Opponent cards1.632.25
Match total2.633.253.36
Over 3.525% 2/838% 3/8
Over 4.525% 2/825% 2/8
Lommel UnitedZulte WaregemLeague
Corners
Corners won3.605.20
Corners conceded7.604.80
Match total11.2010.0010.01
Over 8.590% 9/1080% 8/10
Over 9.580% 8/1060% 6/10
Over 10.560% 6/1050% 5/10
Cards
Cards1.201.00
Opponent cards1.802.30
Match total3.003.303.36
Over 3.540% 4/1040% 4/10
Over 4.530% 3/1030% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Lommel United7 games · scored 9 · conceded 4
0-15
3 16-30
1 2 31-45
3 46-60
1 2 61-75
1 76-90
Zulte Waregem8 games · scored 10 · conceded 9
2 0-15
2 1 16-30
1 2 31-45
2 3 46-60
1 61-75
4 1 76-90
Lommel United9 games · scored 12 · conceded 6
0-15
3 16-30
1 3 31-45
4 46-60
1 2 61-75
3 1 76-90
Zulte Waregem10 games · scored 15 · conceded 12
2 0-15
2 3 16-30
3 2 31-45
3 3 46-60
2 1 61-75
5 1 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Belgian Pro League

View all fixtures →
OH Leuven Kortrijk Nov 2719:45 KVC Westerlo RAAL La Louvière Nov 2815:00 Cercle Brugge KV Mechelen Nov 2817:15 Lommel United Zulte Waregem Nov 2819:45 Charleroi SK Beveren Nov 2819:45 St. Truiden Genk Nov 2912:30 Antwerp Anderlecht Nov 2915:00 Standard Liege Club Brugge KV Nov 2917:30 Union St. Gilloise Gent Nov 2918:15