Belgian Pro League Knockout phase Sun, Nov 29 · 18:15 Stade Joseph Mariën, Brussels
Union St. Gilloise 4th · 20 pts · 8 played
VS— Compare
Gent 1st · 22 pts · 8 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel50 kmRest days3 · 7.2Matches / 14d2 · 1
Real contextStrength only
Union St. Gilloise—%
Draw—%
Gent—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Brussels)

Forecast from 14 Nov

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Union St. Gilloise and Gent. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

Union St. GilloiseGent
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
70 Current StrengthIn forecast 46
62 AttackIn forecast 46
74 DefenceIn forecast 61
73 Form indexContext 84
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Union St. Gilloise

Attack—
Defense risk—

Gent

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Union St. GilloiseGent
2.75 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.88
0.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.50
1.32 xGVia Att/Def 1.31
0.98 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.60
+1.43 Goals minus xGContext +0.57
88% Scored inContext 100%
63% Clean sheetsContext 50%
16.88 ShotsContext 12.38
7.13 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.13
42% On target shareContext 41%
13.50 Shots in the boxContext 8.00
78% Box shareContext 65%
16% ConversionContext 15%
2.75 OffsidesContext 2.33
11.13 Shots allowedContext 10.63
2.75 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.13
4.13 BlocksContext 3.50
2.43 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.75
81% Save rateContext 88%
53% PossessionIn forecast 46%
458 PassesContext 456
377 Accurate passesContext 386
82% Pass accuracyContext 85%
7.14 Team ratingContext 7.07
11.38 FoulsContext 10.25
11.75 Fouls sufferedContext 9.88
1.75 Yellow cardsContext 1.38
0.13 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games
2.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50
0.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.90
1.40 xGVia Att/Def 1.42
0.96 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.07
+0.90 Goals minus xGContext +0.08
90% Scored inContext 80%
60% Clean sheetsContext 50%
17.30 ShotsContext 12.20
7.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.40
41% On target shareContext 36%
13.20 Shots in the boxContext 8.10
75% Box shareContext 67%
13% ConversionContext 12%
2.78 OffsidesContext 2.29
11.90 Shots allowedContext 12.60
3.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.40
3.90 BlocksContext 3.80
3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.60
75% Save rateContext 82%
51% PossessionIn forecast 46%
461 PassesContext 453
379 Accurate passesContext 384
82% Pass accuracyContext 85%
7.12 Team ratingContext 7.04
11.90 FoulsContext 10.00
11.90 Fouls sufferedContext 9.30
1.80 Yellow cardsContext 1.60
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Union St. Gilloise
Rest3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km152 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Form 73 · 11 pts vs 8.2 for an average club · +0.8 vs expected
  • D15 OctH · Real Sociedad1–11.9 xPts
  • D11 OctH · OH Leuven1–12.7 xPts
  • W20 SepA · Antwerp2–02.1 xPts
  • W17 SepA · Plzen3–01.4 xPts
  • W12 SepH · Lommel United5–02.2 xPts
Gent
Rest7.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel50 km83 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 84 · 13 pts vs 8.4 for an average club · +5.0 vs expected
  • W10 OctA · Zulte Waregem2–01.4 xPts
  • W18 SepH · Standard Liege2–11.9 xPts
  • D13 SepA · Genk1–11.1 xPts
  • W6 SepA · Cercle Brugge3–01.4 xPts
  • W3 SepH · OH Leuven1–02.2 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Union St. Gilloise Gent
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 8Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match3UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 26 Nov7.2Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 22 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km50 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways152 km83 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 40 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one11.114

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Union St. Gilloise Last XI · not confirmed
3-1-4-2 · vs Real Sociedad (H) 1–1, 15 Oct
12H. Koffi(G)
55Nikki Havenaar 29M. Sylla 4N. Chibani
6K. Van de Perre
11G. da Silva Carvalho 28D. Olaru 23B. Zeneli 27L. Patris
38R. Mofokeng 9Mateo Biondic
Gent Last XI · not confirmed
3-4-2-1 · vs Zulte Waregem (A) 2–0, 10 Oct
33D. Roef(G)
44S. Van der Heyden 16C. Burgess 3M. Paskotši
20Tiago Araújo 17M. Delorge-Knieper 22Leonardo Lopes 45B. Goore
11M. Sonko 7M. Balikwisha
75Ibrahima Cisse

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Union St. Gilloise Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Gent Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Union St. Gilloise · Home 2.00points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
2-2-0
Scored
2.25
Conceded
0.25
Gent · Away 2.50points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
3-1-0
Scored
2.00
Conceded
0.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

OpponentUnion St. GilloiseGent
OH Leuven D 1–1 H W 1–0 H
Zulte Waregem D 0–0 H W 2–0 A
Points2 of 6 · 1.00 per game6 of 6 · 3.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

1 Union St. Gilloise wins5 draws0 Gent wins
Goals per game1.00 – 0.83 Over 2.517% Both scored67% Clean sheets33% · 33%
  • 21 May 2026Gent0–0Union St. Gilloise
  • 22 Apr 2026Union St. Gilloise0–0Gent
  • 6 Dec 2025Union St. Gilloise1–1Gent
  • 9 Aug 2025Gent2–3Union St. Gilloise
  • 10 Mar 2024Union St. Gilloise1–1Gent
  • 26 Nov 2023Gent1–1Union St. Gilloise

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Union St. GilloiseGentForecast
Scored per game 2.751.88
Conceded per game 0.500.50
Match goals 3.252.38
Over 1.5 88%88%
Over 2.5 63%50%
Over 3.5 38%0%
Both teams scored 38%50%
Clean sheets 63%50%
Failed to score 13%0%
Games88
Union St. GilloiseGentForecast
Scored per game 2.302.00
Conceded per game 0.700.50
Match goals 3.002.50
Over 1.5 90%90%
Over 2.5 60%50%
Over 3.5 30%10%
Both teams scored 40%50%
Clean sheets 60%50%
Failed to score 10%0%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Union St. GilloiseGentLeague
Corners
Corners won5.885.14
Corners conceded3.253.71
Match total9.138.8510.01
Over 8.563% 5/857% 4/7
Over 9.550% 4/843% 3/7
Over 10.538% 3/843% 3/7
Cards
Cards1.881.50
Opponent cards1.881.50
Match total3.763.003.36
Over 3.550% 4/825% 2/8
Over 4.525% 2/825% 2/8
Union St. GilloiseGentLeague
Corners
Corners won4.805.78
Corners conceded3.904.00
Match total8.709.7810.01
Over 8.550% 5/1067% 6/9
Over 9.550% 5/1056% 5/9
Over 10.540% 4/1056% 5/9
Cards
Cards2.001.70
Opponent cards1.901.20
Match total3.902.903.36
Over 3.560% 6/1030% 3/10
Over 4.530% 3/1020% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Union St. Gilloise7 games · scored 17 · conceded 4
1 1 0-15
2 2 16-30
3 1 31-45
4 46-60
3 61-75
4 76-90
Gent8 games · scored 15 · conceded 4
2 1 0-15
2 16-30
4 2 31-45
2 1 46-60
61-75
5 76-90
Union St. Gilloise9 games · scored 18 · conceded 7
1 0-15
2 2 16-30
4 1 31-45
4 2 46-60
3 61-75
4 2 76-90
Gent10 games · scored 15 · conceded 9
2 1 0-15
2 1 16-30
4 4 31-45
2 2 46-60
61-75
5 1 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Belgian Pro League

View all fixtures →
OH Leuven Kortrijk Nov 2719:45 KVC Westerlo RAAL La Louvière Nov 2815:00 Cercle Brugge KV Mechelen Nov 2817:15 Lommel United Zulte Waregem Nov 2819:45 Charleroi SK Beveren Nov 2819:45 St. Truiden Genk Nov 2912:30 Antwerp Anderlecht Nov 2915:00 Standard Liege Club Brugge KV Nov 2917:30 Union St. Gilloise Gent Nov 2918:15