Lorient vs Lyon – 7 Dec 2025

Ligue 1 Gameweek 15 Sun, Dec 7 · 19:45 Stade du Moustoir – Yves Allainmat, Lorient

Lorient 15th · 14 pts · 14 played DLDDW

1–0Full time

Lyon 5th · 24 pts · 14 played DDLDW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Lyon were slight favourites.

Lyon were the stronger side on L90 Strength (60 vs 23). Lyon usually keep the ball (58% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Lorient had 7.1 days of rest, Lyon 7 and had to travel 671 km.

Away travel671 kmRest days7.1 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 2

Lorient22%

Draw25%

Lyon53%

Expected goals 1.05 – 1.76

Lorient22%

Draw25%

Lyon53%

Expected goals 1.04 – 1.72

Lorient22%

Draw25%

Lyon54%

Expected goals 1.03 – 1.75

Lorient17%

Draw22%

Lyon61%

Expected goals 0.94 – 1.97

Lorient23%

Draw25%

Lyon52%

Expected goals 1.07 – 1.73

Over 2.5 53% Both score 54% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Lorient)

No weather data yet

Referee · FranceMathieu Vernice

Cards per match 4.6
Penalties per match 0.35
Matches 49

Team strength

Lorient

Lyon

23 L90 StrengthIn forecast 60

34 Current StrengthIn forecast 59

28 AttackIn forecast 55

45 DefenceIn forecast 56

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Lorient

Attack—

Defense risk—

Lyon

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Lorient

Lyon

1.29 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50

2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.07

1.44 xGVia Att/Def 1.45

1.28 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.02

-0.15 Goals minus xGContext +0.05

64% Scored inContext 86%

7% Clean sheetsContext 57%

11.50 ShotsContext 11.86

3.64 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.14

32% On target shareContext 35%

7.71 Shots in the boxContext 7.92

67% Box shareContext 64%

11% ConversionContext 13%

2.75 OffsidesContext 1.83

9.57 Shots allowedContext 10.64

4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.23

2.75 BlocksContext 4.33

2.64 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.33

57% Save rateContext 72%

44% PossessionIn forecast 55%

409 PassesContext 463

346 Accurate passesContext 400

85% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.71 Team ratingContext 6.90

10.57 FoulsContext 13.93

14.57 Fouls sufferedContext 13.79

2.14 Yellow cardsContext 1.93

0.07 Red cardsContext 0.21

This league season, per match · 14 and 14 games

1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

1.38 xGVia Att/Def 1.57

1.15 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.96

-0.08 Goals minus xGContext +0.43

70% Scored inContext 70%

0% Clean sheetsContext 50%

11.50 ShotsContext 12.80

3.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.30

33% On target shareContext 34%

7.60 Shots in the boxContext 8.33

65% Box shareContext 59%

11% ConversionContext 16%

2.60 OffsidesContext 2.44

8.80 Shots allowedContext 8.60

3.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.44

2.33 BlocksContext 2.63

2.43 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.50

61% Save rateContext 71%

44% PossessionIn forecast 58%

413 PassesContext 490

349 Accurate passesContext 426

84% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.79 Team ratingContext 6.83

9.70 FoulsContext 11.90

14.30 Fouls sufferedContext 12.00

1.70 Yellow cardsContext 1.90

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.20

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Lorient

Rest7.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Lyon

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel671 km2,272 km in 14d

Schedule load11%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Lorient	Lyon
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 11
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.1Ligue 1 2025-2026, 30 Nov	7Ligue 1 2025-2026, 30 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	671 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	2,272 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 2	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	6.9	4

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Lorient Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

38Y. Mvogo(G)

44D. Yongwa 3M. Talbi 5B. Meïté

43Arsène Kouassi 6L. Abergel 62A. Avom 11T. Le Bris

10P. Pagis 17J. Makengo

28S. Soumano

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Lyon Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

1D. Greif(G)

3N. Tagliafico 19M. Niakhaté 22Clinton Mata

16Abner 39Mathys de Carvalho 23T. Morton 98A. Maitland-Niles

8C. Tolisso 10P. Šulc

20M. Satriano

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Lorient Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Lyon Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Lorient+0.5 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Lyon-0.4 pp

Home / Away this season

Lorient · Home 1.71points per game · 7 home games

W-D-L: 3-3-1
Scored: 2.29
Conceded: 2.00

Lyon · Away 1.29points per game · 7 away games

W-D-L: 2-3-2
Scored: 1.14
Conceded: 1.29

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 12 this season

Opponent	Lorient	Lyon
Nice	W 3–1 H	L 2–3 A
Nantes	D 1–1 A	W 3–0 H
Toulouse	D 1–1 H	L 1–2 H
Lens	L 0–3 A	W 1–0 A
Paris Saint Germain	D 1–1 H	L 2–3 H
Angers	L 0–2 A	W 1–0 H
Stade Brestois 29	D 3–3 H	D 0–0 A
Paris FC	L 0–2 A	D 3–3 A
Marseille	L 0–4 A	W 1–0 H
Lille	L 1–7 H	W 1–0 A
Rennes	W 4–0 H	L 1–3 A
Auxerre	L 0–1 A	D 0–0 A
Points	10 of 36 · 0.83 per game	18 of 36 · 1.50 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

1 Lorient wins3 draws2 Lyon wins

Goals per game1.33 – 1.83 Over 2.550% Both scored67% Clean sheets17% · 33%

9 Mar 2024Lorient0–2Lyon
8 Oct 2023Lyon3–3Lorient
5 Mar 2023Lyon0–0Lorient
7 Sep 2022Lorient3–1Lyon
4 Mar 2022Lorient1–4Lyon
25 Sep 2021Lyon1–1Lorient

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Lorient	Lyon	Forecast
Scored per game	1.29	1.50
Conceded per game	2.00	1.07
Match goals	3.29	2.57	2.81
Over 1.5	93%	57%
Over 2.5	50%	57%	53%
Over 3.5	43%	29%
Both teams scored	57%	43%	54%
Clean sheets	7%	57%
Failed to score	36%	14%
Games	14	14

	Lorient	Lyon	Forecast
Scored per game	1.30	2.00
Conceded per game	1.60	1.20
Match goals	2.90	3.20	2.81
Over 1.5	100%	80%
Over 2.5	40%	60%	53%
Over 3.5	30%	40%
Both teams scored	70%	40%	54%
Clean sheets	0%	50%
Failed to score	30%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Lorient	Lyon	League
Corners
Corners won	3.58	6.00
Corners conceded	3.92	4.92
Match total	7.50	10.92	9.29
Over 8.5	33% 4/12	69% 9/13
Over 9.5	25% 3/12	46% 6/13
Over 10.5	17% 2/12	46% 6/13
Cards
Cards	2.21	2.21
Opponent cards	2.21	2.57
Match total	4.42	4.78	4.05
Over 3.5	64% 9/14	79% 11/14
Over 4.5	50% 7/14	43% 6/14

	Lorient	Lyon	League
Corners
Corners won	3.78	5.25
Corners conceded	3.67	4.25
Match total	7.45	9.50	9.29
Over 8.5	33% 3/9	50% 4/8
Over 9.5	22% 2/9	38% 3/8
Over 10.5	11% 1/9	38% 3/8
Cards
Cards	1.70	2.20
Opponent cards	2.00	2.60
Match total	3.70	4.80	4.05
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Mathieu Vernice France · 49 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.22league 3.69

Red cards0.37league 0.32

Cards 5+51%league 36%

Fouls26.8league 24.0

Penalties0.35league 0.48

Home wins45%league 51%

Lorient5 with this referee

Record0-2-3 Cards · opp.1.2 · 1.4 Pens for · against0 · 0

L9 Mar 24H · Lyon0–20
L20 Dec 23A · Stade Brestois 290–42
D14 May 23A · Montpellier1–13
L12 Feb 23A · Nantes0–10
D15 Oct 22H · Reims0–01

Lyon4 with this referee

Record3-0-1 Cards · opp.3.5 · 2.5 Pens for · against1 · 0 Reds2

W28 Sep 25A · Lille1–04
W14 Apr 24H · Stade Brestois 294–35
W9 Mar 24A · Lorient2–00
L19 Aug 23H · Montpellier1–45

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.