Lyon vs Crystal Palace – 15 Oct 2026

UEFA Europa League Matchday 2 Thu, Oct 15 · 17:45 Groupama Stadium, Décines-Charpieu

Lyon 11th · 3 pts · 1 played W

3–2Full time

Crystal Palace 2nd · 3 pts · 1 played W

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

Crystal Palace were the stronger side on L90 Strength (67 vs 59). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Lyon. Lyon were without L. Openda and M. Niakhaté. Crystal Palace were without D. Henderson. Lyon had 5.9 days of rest, Crystal Palace 4.2 and had to travel 739 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel739 kmRest days5.9 · 4.2Matches / 14d1 · 1

Lyon42%

Draw23%

Crystal Palace35%

Expected goals 1.79 – 1.61

Lyon39%

Draw26%

Crystal Palace35%

Expected goals 1.38 – 1.29

Lyon42%

Draw23%

Crystal Palace35%

Expected goals 1.76 – 1.59

Lyon34%

Draw23%

Crystal Palace43%

Expected goals 1.59 – 1.81

Lyon42%

Draw23%

Crystal Palace36%

Expected goals 1.78 – 1.63

Over 2.5 66% Both score 67% Likeliest score 1–1

Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Décines-Charpieu)

21°CClear

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 3 km/h
Humidity 72%

RefereeJoao Pinheiro

Cards per match 2.8
Penalties per match 0.33
Matches 12

Team strength

Lyon

Crystal Palace

59 L90 StrengthIn forecast 67

59 Current StrengthIn forecast 62

55 AttackIn forecast 64

56 DefenceIn forecast 54

73 Form indexContext 79

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Lyon

Attack−11%

Defense risk+34%

Crystal Palace

Attack+19%

Defense risk−16%

Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.

Playing style

Lyon

Crystal Palace

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.70

0.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60

1.15 xGVia Att/Def 1.55

1.56 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.91

+0.65 Goals minus xGContext +0.15

90% Scored inContext 80%

40% Clean sheetsContext 30%

13.90 ShotsContext 11.70

6.78 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.20

44% On target shareContext 36%

9.30 Shots in the boxContext 8.22

67% Box shareContext 68%

13% ConversionContext 15%

2.33 OffsidesContext 2.38

11.80 Shots allowedContext 16.60

4.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.10

2.10 BlocksContext 4.50

3.40 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.40

81% Save rateContext 67%

52% PossessionIn forecast 44%

454 PassesContext 397

388 Accurate passesContext 319

85% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.99 Team ratingContext 6.92

12.80 FoulsContext 10.00

14.30 Fouls sufferedContext 9.90

1.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.40

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Lyon WDWWL

Rest5.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km1,084 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 73 · 10 pts vs 7.3 for an average club · +2.4 vs expected

L9 OctA · Lens1–21.1 xPts
W19 SepH · Rennes4–01.6 xPts
W16 SepA · Anderlecht2–11.3 xPts
D12 SepA · Paris FC0–01.4 xPts
W4 SepH · Auxerre3–12.2 xPts

Crystal Palace WLWDW

Rest4.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel739 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

Form 79 · 10 pts vs 6.3 for an average club · +2.7 vs expected

W11 OctH · Nottingham Forest3–11.4 xPts
D20 SepA · Leeds0–00.9 xPts
W17 SepH · Lech Poznan4–01.9 xPts
L12 SepH · Ipswich2–32.0 xPts
W5 SepA · Fulham3–21.2 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Lyon	Crystal Palace
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	5.9Ligue 1 2026-2027, 9 Oct	4.2Premier League 2026-2027, 11 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	739 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,084 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 2	1 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	3.1	2.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Lyon Confirmed XI

4-1-2-1-2

1D. Greif(G)

16Abner 21R. Kluivert 20F. Bacher 13Z. Athekame

23T. Morton

8C. Tolisso 99N. Nartey

18Khalis Merah

11K. Nakamura 7E. Nuamah

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Crystal Palace Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

44W. Benítez(G)

6J. Canvot 5A. Disasi 26Chris Richards

3T. Mitchell 23Q. Timber 20A. Wharton 30Óscar Mingueza

10Yeremy Pino 7I. Sarr

22J. Strand Larsen

+9 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Lyon Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.05 goals

Attack line −22.7% · Defence line −15.2% of weighted minutes

ATT L. Openda Starter 6.72 Att −21.4%
DEF M. Niakhaté Starter 7.03 Def −11.2%
DEF N. Tagliafico Rotation 6.66 Def −2.6%
DEF Mohamed Ouédraogo Rotation 6.92 Def −1.5%
ATT Rémi Himbert Rotation 6.80 Att −1.3%

Crystal Palace Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.06 goals

Attack line −12.0% · Defence line −21.4% of weighted minutes

DEF D. Henderson Starter 6.81 Def −14.2%
ATT J. Mateta Rotation 6.74 Att −5.8%
MID J. Lerma Rotation 6.72 Att −2.7% Def −1.9%
DEF T. Tomiyasu Rotation 6.36 Def −2.6%
DEF C. Riad Rotation 6.55 Def −2.5%
ATT E. Guessand Rotation 6.72 Att −3.1%

+2 more with impact, 1 without recent minutes (no impact): C. Doucouré

Total impact vs full squads

Lyon+0.1 pp
Draw-0.2 pp
Crystal Palace+0.2 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Lyon · Home No home games yet this season.

Crystal Palace · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Lyon	Crystal Palace	Forecast
Scored per game	2.00	4.00
Conceded per game	1.00	0.00
Match goals	3.00	4.00	3.40
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	100%	100%	66%
Over 3.5	0%	100%
Both teams scored	100%	0%	67%
Clean sheets	0%	100%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	1	1

	Lyon	Crystal Palace	Forecast
Scored per game	1.80	1.60
Conceded per game	0.80	1.90
Match goals	2.60	3.50	3.40
Over 1.5	90%	90%
Over 2.5	60%	80%	66%
Over 3.5	20%	60%
Both teams scored	60%	60%	67%
Clean sheets	40%	20%
Failed to score	10%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Lyon	Crystal Palace	League
Corners
Corners won	4.00	6.00
Corners conceded	6.00	5.00
Match total	10.00	11.00	10.69
Over 8.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 9.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 10.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1
Cards
Cards	2.00	0.00
Opponent cards	0.00	2.00
Match total	2.00	2.00	3.38
Over 3.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Over 4.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1

	Lyon	Crystal Palace	League
Corners
Corners won	5.00	3.78
Corners conceded	5.44	5.22
Match total	10.44	9.00	10.69
Over 8.5	78% 7/9	44% 4/9
Over 9.5	78% 7/9	33% 3/9
Over 10.5	56% 5/9	33% 3/9
Cards
Cards	1.50	1.50
Opponent cards	1.80	1.90
Match total	3.30	3.40	3.38
Over 3.5	30% 3/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	10% 1/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Joao Pinheiro 12 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards2.75league 3.28

Red cards0.08league 0.11

Cards 5+8%league 39%

Fouls21.6league 25.2

Penalties0.33league 0.17

Home wins50%league 44%

Lyon

No previous matches with this referee.

Crystal Palace

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.