Lyon
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Lyon64.5%fair odds 1.55
Draw20.8%fair odds 4.81
GO Ahead Eagles14.7%fair odds 6.79
Expected goals2.11 – 0.91total 3.03
Likeliest score2–010.8%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
GO Ahead Eagles
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Lyon ↓ · GO Ahead Eagles → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 9.9 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.9 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 7.6 | 7.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Lyon goals, columns GO Ahead Eagles goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–010.8%9.24
- 2–19.9%10.11
- 1–19.9%10.15
- 1–09.8%10.25
- 3–07.6%13.11
- 3–17.0%14.36
- 0–05.3%18.70
- 2–24.5%22.15
- 1–24.3%23.40
- 4–04.0%24.83
Winning margin
21.4%
Lyon by 3+
fair 4.68
19.7%
Lyon by 2
fair 5.07
23.4%
Lyon by 1
fair 4.28
20.8%
Draw
fair 4.81
9.8%
GO Ahead Eagles by 1
fair 10.18
3.7%
GO Ahead Eagles by 2
fair 27.17
1.2%
GO Ahead Eagles by 3+
fair 81.86
Goal distribution
Total goals
5%0
14%1
23%2
22%3
17%4
19%5+
Lyon goals
12%0
26%1
27%2
19%3
16%4+
GO Ahead Eagles goals
40%0
37%1
17%2
5%3
1%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lyon win | 64.5% | 62.9% | +1.6 pp |
| Draw | 20.8% | 21.9% | -1.1 pp |
| GO Ahead Eagles win | 14.7% | 15.2% | -0.5 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 58.3% | 54.5% | +3.7 pp |
| Both teams score | 53.1% | 50.8% | +2.3 pp |
| Expected goals Lyon | 2.11 | 1.99 | +0.12 |
| Expected goals GO Ahead Eagles | 0.91 | 0.87 | +0.04 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Lyon win64.5%1.55
- Draw20.8%4.81
- GO Ahead Eagles win14.7%6.79
- Double chance Lyon or draw85.3%1.17
- Double chance Lyon or GO Ahead Eagles79.2%1.26
- Double chance GO Ahead Eagles or draw35.5%2.81
- Draw no bet Lyon81.4%1.23
- Draw no bet GO Ahead Eagles18.6%5.38
Goals
- Over 0.594.7%1.06
- Over 1.581.0%1.24
- Over 2.558.3%1.72
- Over 3.535.9%2.79
- Over 4.518.9%5.29
- Under 1.519.0%5.25
- Under 2.541.7%2.40
- Under 3.564.1%1.56
Both teams to score
- Yes53.1%1.88
- No46.9%2.13
- Yes and over 2.543.3%2.31
- Lyon win and yes29.7%3.37
- Draw and yes15.5%6.47
- GO Ahead Eagles win and yes8.0%12.53
Team goals
- Lyon over 0.587.9%1.14
- Lyon over 1.562.4%1.60
- Lyon over 2.535.4%2.83
- GO Ahead Eagles over 0.559.9%1.67
- GO Ahead Eagles over 1.523.2%4.30
- GO Ahead Eagles over 2.56.5%15.38
- Lyon clean sheet40.1%2.49
- GO Ahead Eagles clean sheet12.1%8.27
- Lyon win to nil34.8%2.88
- GO Ahead Eagles win to nil6.7%14.83
Handicap
- Lyon −1.541.1%2.43
- Lyon −2.521.4%4.68
- GO Ahead Eagles +1.558.9%1.70
- GO Ahead Eagles +2.578.6%1.27
- GO Ahead Eagles −1.54.9%20.40
- Lyon +1.595.1%1.05
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record UEFA Europa League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored99
Favourite won58.6%
Avg chance given to result41.6%
1X2 Brier0.561
Over 2.5 called right53.5%
BTTS called right50.5%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 11 | 38.5% | 45.5% |
| 40–50% | 40 | 44.7% | 47.5% |
| 50–60% | 35 | 54.6% | 74.3% |
| 60–70% | 9 | 66.2% | 44.4% |
| 70–80% | 3 | 73.7% | 100.0% |
| 80%+ | 1 | 82.7% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 81 of 99 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5545 | 0.5440 |
| Avg chance given to result | 42.1% | 43.7% |
| Favourite won | 59.3% | 64.2% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 81 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
- ✓Ferencvarosi TC 2–1 Rangers49·25·26
- ✓Sturm Graz 0–1 FK Crvena Zvezda36·27·37
- ✓Dinamo Zagreb 1–3 Real Betis33·26·41
- ✗Ludogorets 3–3 PAOK26·25·48
- ✗BSC Young Boys 1–0 Lille32·26·41
- ✓FC Midtjylland 1–0 Genk53·24·23
- ✓Utrecht 1–2 Nottingham Forest33·27·41
- ✓VfB Stuttgart 4–1 Maccabi Tel Aviv76·16·9
- ✓Nice 0–1 SC Braga25·25·50
- ✓Genk 2–1 FC Basel 189339·26·35
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 99 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.