Lyon
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Lyon were clear favourites.
Lyon were the stronger side on L90 Strength (58 vs 27). Lyon had 4 days of rest, GO Ahead Eagles 4.3 and had to travel 727 km.
Away travel727 kmRest days4 · 4.3Matches / 14d3 · 3
Lyon64%
Draw21%
GO Ahead Eagles15%
Lyon63%
Draw22%
GO Ahead Eagles15%
Lyon65%
Draw20%
GO Ahead Eagles15%
Lyon57%
Draw23%
GO Ahead Eagles20%
Lyon63%
Draw22%
GO Ahead Eagles15%
Over 2.5 58%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Décines-Charpieu)
No weather data yet
Referee · AlbaniaJuxhin Xhaja
- Cards per match 5.3
- Penalties per match 0.39
- Matches 18
Team strength
Lyon
GO Ahead Eagles
58
L90 StrengthIn forecast
27
60
Current StrengthIn forecast
24
55
AttackIn forecast
29
56
DefenceIn forecast
17
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGO Ahead Eagles
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LyonGO Ahead Eagles
2.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
0.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
1.97
xGVia Att/Def
0.90
0.82
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.95
+0.23
Goals minus xGContext
-0.10
80%
Scored inContext
40%
80%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
14.20
ShotsContext
8.60
5.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.60
37%
On target shareContext
42%
10.00
Shots in the boxContext
5.60
70%
Box shareContext
66%
16%
ConversionContext
9%
2.75
OffsidesContext
2.75
9.00
Shots allowedContext
18.40
3.75
On target allowedVia Att/Def
7.40
2.20
BlocksContext
5.50
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
5.80
93%
Save rateContext
78%
64%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
600
PassesContext
416
532
Accurate passesContext
348
89%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
7.00
Team ratingContext
6.88
11.80
FoulsContext
10.80
12.60
Fouls sufferedContext
8.75
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.90
1.32
xGVia Att/Def
0.94
1.15
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.85
+0.48
Goals minus xGContext
+0.36
60%
Scored inContext
70%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
10.90
ShotsContext
7.30
4.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
39%
On target shareContext
48%
7.44
Shots in the boxContext
5.50
62%
Box shareContext
67%
17%
ConversionContext
18%
2.44
OffsidesContext
1.90
9.50
Shots allowedContext
17.20
3.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.40
2.56
BlocksContext
5.67
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
5.00
80%
Save rateContext
78%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
481
PassesContext
417
417
Accurate passesContext
340
87%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.84
Team ratingContext
6.76
12.70
FoulsContext
8.90
12.30
Fouls sufferedContext
10.33
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Lyon
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km3,615 km in 14d
Schedule load25%Moderate
GO Ahead Eagles
Rest4.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel727 km209 km in 14d
Schedule load21%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Lyon |
GO Ahead Eagles |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 25 | Moderate · 21 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4Ligue 1 2025-2026, 7 Dec | 4.3Eredivisie 2025-2026, 7 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 727 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 3,615 km | 209 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 4 | 1 / 3 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 2.8 | 2.7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Lyon
Confirmed XI
40R. Descamps(G)
3N. Tagliafico
19M. Niakhaté
22Clinton Mata
17Afonso Moreira
8C. Tolisso
23T. Morton
44Khalis Merah
98A. Maitland-Niles
20M. Satriano
10P. Šulc
GO Ahead Eagles
Confirmed XI
22J. De Busser(G)
5D. James
4J. Kramer
25G. van Zwam
2M. Deijl
8H. Linthorst
21M. Meulensteen
17M. Suray
24K. Goudmijn
29A. Adelgaard
9M. Smit
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Lyon
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
GO Ahead Eagles
Scores -0.02 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Lyon-0.6 pp
- Draw+0.4 pp
- GO Ahead Eagles+0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Lyon · Home
3.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
GO Ahead Eagles · Away
1.50points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Lyon | GO Ahead Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Red Bull Salzburg | W 2–0 H | L 0–2 A |
| Points | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Lyon | GO Ahead Eagles | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.20 | 0.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.40 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 2.60 | 3.03 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 20% | 60% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 40% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 80% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 60% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Lyon | GO Ahead Eagles | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.90 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 3.20 | 3.03 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 70% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 60% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Lyon | GO Ahead Eagles | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.75 | 3.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.25 | 6.00 | |
| Match total | 6.00 | 9.40 | 8.97 |
| Over 8.5 | 25% 1/4 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/4 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/4 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.40 | 3.80 | 4.32 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 3/5 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 3/5 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Lyon | GO Ahead Eagles | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 2.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.25 | 6.10 | |
| Match total | 8.75 | 8.80 | 8.97 |
| Over 8.5 | 38% 3/8 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 25% 2/8 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 2/8 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.70 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 4.90 | 3.60 | 4.32 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Juxhin Xhaja Albania · 18 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.94league 4.13
Red cards0.33league 0.19
Cards 5+67%league 42%
Fouls23.3league 24.7
Penalties0.39league 0.36
Home wins39%league 51%
LyonNo previous matches with this referee.
GO Ahead EaglesNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Lyon5 games · scored 11 · conceded 2
3
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
3
46-60
2
61-75
1
76-90
GO Ahead Eagles5 games · scored 4 · conceded 9
2
0-15
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
3
46-60
2
61-75
1
2
76-90
Lyon10 games · scored 18 · conceded 10
3
0-15
2
3
16-30
2
3
31-45
6
46-60
2
1
61-75
3
3
76-90
GO Ahead Eagles10 games · scored 13 · conceded 19
2
3
0-15
2
16-30
3
3
31-45
1
7
46-60
4
61-75
3
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
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