Lyon
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Lyon were slight favourites.
Lyon were the stronger side on L90 Strength (66 vs 53). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Lyon. Lyon had 2.8 days of rest, Lille 2.8 and had to travel 555 km.
Away travel555 kmRest days2.8 · 2.8Matches / 14d4 · 3
Lyon55%
Draw23%
Lille22%
Lyon52%
Draw25%
Lille23%
Lyon56%
Draw23%
Lille22%
Lyon47%
Draw24%
Lille29%
Lyon58%
Draw22%
Lille20%
Over 2.5 62%
Both score 61%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Décines-Charpieu)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceFrançois Letexier
- Cards per match 4.3
- Penalties per match 0.33
- Matches 116
Team strength
Lyon
Lille
66
L90 StrengthIn forecast
53
59
Current StrengthIn forecast
52
55
AttackIn forecast
42
56
DefenceIn forecast
60
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLille
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LyonLille
1.68
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.79
1.05
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.53
1.50
xGVia Att/Def
1.55
1.09
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.39
+0.18
Goals minus xGContext
+0.24
84%
Scored inContext
68%
47%
Clean sheetsContext
26%
12.47
ShotsContext
13.84
4.84
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.74
39%
On target shareContext
34%
8.44
Shots in the boxContext
9.95
66%
Box shareContext
71%
14%
ConversionContext
13%
1.87
OffsidesContext
1.71
10.42
Shots allowedContext
10.42
3.44
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.84
4.27
BlocksContext
2.72
2.53
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
73%
Save rateContext
63%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
464
PassesContext
468
401
Accurate passesContext
397
86%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.92
Team ratingContext
6.85
13.79
FoulsContext
11.53
13.37
Fouls sufferedContext
13.11
1.84
Yellow cardsContext
1.95
0.16
Red cardsContext
0.26
2.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.97
xGVia Att/Def
1.15
0.97
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.29
+0.73
Goals minus xGContext
+0.15
90%
Scored inContext
70%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
15.40
ShotsContext
11.40
6.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.80
44%
On target shareContext
33%
10.80
Shots in the boxContext
7.20
71%
Box shareContext
64%
18%
ConversionContext
11%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.83
7.90
Shots allowedContext
10.50
3.22
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
2.83
BlocksContext
3.00
2.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.25
72%
Save rateContext
65%
62%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
532
PassesContext
485
468
Accurate passesContext
420
88%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
7.05
Team ratingContext
6.78
12.20
FoulsContext
9.30
11.10
Fouls sufferedContext
12.60
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.50
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Lyon
Rest2.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d4High congestion
Travel0 km1,228 km in 14d
Schedule load43%High
Lille
Rest2.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel555 km2,601 km in 14d
Schedule load34%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Lyon |
Lille |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | High · 43 | Moderate · 34 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | Yes | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 2.8UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 29 Jan | 2.8UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 29 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 555 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,228 km | 2,601 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 2 / 4 / 4 | 2 / 3 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.3 | 5.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Lyon
Confirmed XI
1D. Greif(G)
21R. Kluivert
19M. Niakhaté
22Clinton Mata
98A. Maitland-Niles
16Abner
6F. Tessmann
99N. Nartey
17Afonso Moreira
10P. Šulc
9Endrick
Lille
Confirmed XI
1B. Özer(G)
15R. Perraud
23A. Mandi
3N. Ngoy
22Tiago Santos
21B. André
32A. Bouaddi
27Félix Correia
10H. Haraldsson
17N. Mukau
7M. Fernandez-Pardo
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Lyon
Scores -0.06 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Lille
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Lyon-0.6 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Lille+0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Lyon · Home
2.33points per game · 9 home games
- W-D-L
- 7-0-2
- Scored
- 1.78
- Conceded
- 0.78
Lille · Away
1.44points per game · 9 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-1-4
- Scored
- 1.89
- Conceded
- 1.89
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Lyon | Lille |
|---|---|---|
| Metz | W 5–2 AW 3–0 H | W 6–1 H |
| Stade Brestois 29 | W 2–1 HD 0–0 A | D 3–3 A |
| Monaco | W 3–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| LE Havre | W 1–0 H | W 1–0 A |
| Lorient | L 0–1 A | W 7–1 A |
| Nantes | W 3–0 H | W 2–0 A |
| Auxerre | D 0–0 A | W 4–3 A |
| Paris Saint Germain | L 2–3 H | L 0–3 AD 1–1 H |
| Paris FC | D 3–3 A | W 4–2 H |
| Strasbourg | W 2–1 H | L 1–4 HL 0–2 A |
| Nice | L 2–3 A | L 0–2 A |
| Toulouse | L 1–2 H | W 2–1 H |
| Angers | W 1–0 H | W 1–0 H |
| Rennes | L 1–3 A | L 0–2 H |
| Marseille | W 1–0 H | W 1–0 H |
| Lens | W 1–0 A | L 0–3 A |
| Points | 33 of 54 · 1.83 per game | 32 of 54 · 1.78 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
4 Lyon wins3 draws2 Lille wins
Goals per game1.33 – 1.22
Over 2.533%
Both scored44%
Clean sheets33% · 33%
- 28 Sep 2025Lille0–1Lyon
- 5 Apr 2025Lyon2–1Lille
- 1 Nov 2024Lille1–1Lyon
- 6 May 2024Lille3–4Lyon
- 26 Nov 2023Lyon0–2Lille
- 10 Mar 2023Lille3–3Lyon
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Lyon | Lille | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.68 | 1.79 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.05 | 1.53 | |
| Match goals | 2.74 | 3.32 | 3.19 |
| Over 1.5 | 58% | 74% | |
| Over 2.5 | 58% | 47% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 32% | 32% | |
| Both teams scored | 47% | 42% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 47% | 26% | |
| Failed to score | 16% | 32% | |
| Games | 19 | 19 |
| Lyon | Lille | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.70 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.80 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 2.80 | 3.19 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 50% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 30% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Lyon | Lille | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.65 | 5.84 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.76 | 4.16 | |
| Match total | 10.41 | 10.00 | 9.16 |
| Over 8.5 | 71% 12/17 | 63% 12/19 | |
| Over 9.5 | 35% 6/17 | 58% 11/19 | |
| Over 10.5 | 35% 6/17 | 53% 10/19 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.11 | 2.21 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.53 | 2.05 | |
| Match total | 4.64 | 4.26 | 3.96 |
| Over 3.5 | 74% 14/19 | 58% 11/19 | |
| Over 4.5 | 42% 8/19 | 47% 9/19 | |
| Lyon | Lille | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.43 | 4.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.29 | 3.90 | |
| Match total | 7.72 | 8.30 | 9.16 |
| Over 8.5 | 43% 3/7 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/7 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/7 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.80 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 4.00 | 3.96 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · François Letexier France · 116 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.00league 3.63
Red cards0.27league 0.31
Cards 5+45%league 35%
Fouls22.2league 24.3
Penalties0.33league 0.43
Home wins53%league 49%
Lyon14 with this referee
Record6-2-6
Cards · opp.2.1 · 1.7
Pens for · against1 · 2
Reds1
- W31 Aug 25H · Marseille1–02
- L20 Apr 25A · Saint Etienne1–24
- W9 Feb 25H · Reims4–02
- L21 Apr 24A · Paris Saint Germain1–40
- L6 Dec 23A · Marseille0–32
Lille12 with this referee
Record5-2-5
Cards · opp.2.5 · 2.7
Pens for · against3 · 0
Reds2
- L9 Nov 25A · Strasbourg0–22
- L1 Mar 25A · Paris Saint Germain1–42
- W17 Jan 25H · Nice2–11
- L13 Sep 24A · Saint Etienne0–11
- L10 Feb 24A · Paris Saint Germain1–33
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Lyon19 games · scored 32 · conceded 20
4
1
0-15
6
2
16-30
7
5
31-45
6
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
7
9
76-90
Lille19 games · scored 34 · conceded 29
4
3
0-15
2
4
16-30
3
3
31-45
3
7
46-60
2
7
61-75
20
5
76-90
Lyon10 games · scored 27 · conceded 8
4
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
8
3
31-45
6
46-60
2
2
61-75
5
1
76-90
Lille10 games · scored 13 · conceded 15
2
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
31-45
4
46-60
1
5
61-75
8
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
