Lyon
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Lyon55.0%fair odds 1.82
Draw22.7%fair odds 4.40
Lille22.3%fair odds 4.48
Expected goals1.98 – 1.20total 3.19
Likeliest score1–110.4%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Lille
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Lyon ↓ · Lille → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 10.4 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 6.5 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Lyon goals, columns Lille goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–110.4%9.63
- 2–19.8%10.23
- 2–08.1%12.30
- 1–07.7%13.02
- 3–16.5%15.47
- 1–25.9%16.86
- 2–25.9%17.01
- 3–05.4%18.60
- 0–04.7%21.46
- 0–14.5%22.47
Winning margin
15.9%
Lyon by 3+
fair 6.29
16.9%
Lyon by 2
fair 5.93
22.2%
Lyon by 1
fair 4.50
22.7%
Draw
fair 4.40
13.3%
Lille by 1
fair 7.54
6.2%
Lille by 2
fair 16.13
2.8%
Lille by 3+
fair 35.28
Goal distribution
Total goals
5%0
12%1
22%2
22%3
18%4
22%5+
Lyon goals
14%0
27%1
27%2
18%3
14%4+
Lille goals
30%0
36%1
22%2
9%3
3%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lyon win | 55.0% | 58.0% | -3.0 pp |
| Draw | 22.7% | 22.4% | +0.4 pp |
| Lille win | 22.3% | 19.6% | +2.7 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 61.7% | 59.9% | +1.8 pp |
| Both teams score | 60.8% | 58.1% | +2.7 pp |
| Expected goals Lyon | 1.98 | 2.01 | -0.03 |
| Expected goals Lille | 1.20 | 1.09 | +0.11 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Lyon win55.0%1.82
- Draw22.7%4.40
- Lille win22.3%4.48
- Double chance Lyon or draw77.7%1.29
- Double chance Lyon or Lille77.3%1.29
- Double chance Lille or draw45.0%2.22
- Draw no bet Lyon71.1%1.41
- Draw no bet Lille28.9%3.46
Goals
- Over 0.595.3%1.05
- Over 1.583.2%1.20
- Over 2.561.7%1.62
- Over 3.539.4%2.54
- Over 4.521.7%4.61
- Under 1.516.8%5.96
- Under 2.538.3%2.61
- Under 3.560.6%1.65
Both teams to score
- Yes60.8%1.64
- No39.2%2.55
- Yes and over 2.550.5%1.98
- Lyon win and yes29.6%3.38
- Draw and yes18.1%5.53
- Lille win and yes13.2%7.58
Team goals
- Lyon over 0.586.2%1.16
- Lyon over 1.558.9%1.70
- Lyon over 2.531.9%3.14
- Lille over 0.570.0%1.43
- Lille over 1.533.8%2.96
- Lille over 2.512.1%8.26
- Lyon clean sheet30.0%3.33
- Lille clean sheet13.8%7.26
- Lyon win to nil25.4%3.94
- Lille win to nil9.1%10.98
Handicap
- Lyon −1.532.7%3.05
- Lyon −2.515.9%6.29
- Lille +1.567.3%1.49
- Lille +2.584.1%1.19
- Lille −1.59.0%11.07
- Lyon +1.591.0%1.10
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Ligue 1 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored175
Favourite won55.4%
Avg chance given to result42.8%
1X2 Brier0.567
Over 2.5 called right53.1%
BTTS called right53.1%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 26 | 38.1% | 46.2% |
| 40–50% | 52 | 44.7% | 48.1% |
| 50–60% | 45 | 53.9% | 48.9% |
| 60–70% | 29 | 64.6% | 69.0% |
| 70–80% | 16 | 74.8% | 75.0% |
| 80%+ | 7 | 86.4% | 85.7% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 147 of 175 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5917 | 0.5789 |
| Avg chance given to result | 41.6% | 41.6% |
| Favourite won | 51.0% | 53.7% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 147 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 175 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.