Lyon
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Lyon55.0%fair odds 1.82
Draw23.6%fair odds 4.23
Red Bull Salzburg21.3%fair odds 4.69
Expected goals1.87 – 1.09total 2.96
Likeliest score1–111.1%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Red Bull Salzburg
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Lyon ↓ · Red Bull Salzburg → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 5.1 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 11.1 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Lyon goals, columns Red Bull Salzburg goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.1%8.99
- 2–19.9%10.13
- 1–09.1%10.96
- 2–09.1%11.04
- 3–16.2%16.24
- 1–25.8%17.37
- 0–05.7%17.43
- 3–05.6%17.71
- 2–25.4%18.57
- 0–15.1%19.66
Winning margin
15.0%
Lyon by 3+
fair 6.66
17.0%
Lyon by 2
fair 5.88
23.0%
Lyon by 1
fair 4.35
23.6%
Draw
fair 4.23
13.2%
Red Bull Salzburg by 1
fair 7.59
5.8%
Red Bull Salzburg by 2
fair 17.29
2.4%
Red Bull Salzburg by 3+
fair 41.94
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
14%1
23%2
22%3
17%4
18%5+
Lyon goals
15%0
29%1
27%2
17%3
12%4+
Red Bull Salzburg goals
34%0
37%1
20%2
7%3
3%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lyon win | 55.0% | 54.0% | +1.1 pp |
| Draw | 23.6% | 24.6% | -1.0 pp |
| Red Bull Salzburg win | 21.3% | 21.4% | -0.1 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 56.8% | 52.7% | +4.1 pp |
| Both teams score | 56.7% | 53.7% | +3.0 pp |
| Expected goals Lyon | 1.87 | 1.76 | +0.11 |
| Expected goals Red Bull Salzburg | 1.09 | 1.03 | +0.06 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Lyon win55.0%1.82
- Draw23.6%4.23
- Red Bull Salzburg win21.3%4.69
- Double chance Lyon or draw78.7%1.27
- Double chance Lyon or Red Bull Salzburg76.4%1.31
- Double chance Red Bull Salzburg or draw45.0%2.22
- Draw no bet Lyon72.1%1.39
- Draw no bet Red Bull Salzburg27.9%3.58
Goals
- Over 0.594.3%1.06
- Over 1.580.1%1.25
- Over 2.556.8%1.76
- Over 3.534.4%2.91
- Over 4.517.8%5.61
- Under 1.519.9%5.01
- Under 2.543.2%2.31
- Under 3.565.6%1.52
Both teams to score
- Yes56.7%1.76
- No43.3%2.31
- Yes and over 2.545.6%2.19
- Lyon win and yes27.2%3.68
- Draw and yes17.9%5.59
- Red Bull Salzburg win and yes11.7%8.57
Team goals
- Lyon over 0.584.6%1.18
- Lyon over 1.555.8%1.79
- Lyon over 2.528.8%3.47
- Red Bull Salzburg over 0.566.4%1.51
- Red Bull Salzburg over 1.529.7%3.36
- Red Bull Salzburg over 2.59.8%10.24
- Lyon clean sheet33.6%2.98
- Red Bull Salzburg clean sheet15.4%6.49
- Lyon win to nil27.9%3.59
- Red Bull Salzburg win to nil9.7%10.34
Handicap
- Lyon −1.532.0%3.12
- Lyon −2.515.0%6.66
- Red Bull Salzburg +1.568.0%1.47
- Red Bull Salzburg +2.585.0%1.18
- Red Bull Salzburg −1.58.2%12.24
- Lyon +1.591.8%1.09
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record UEFA Europa League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored27
Favourite won48.1%
Avg chance given to result38.5%
1X2 Brier0.612
Over 2.5 called right40.7%
BTTS called right48.1%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 3 | 38.5% | 33.3% |
| 40–50% | 14 | 44.7% | 35.7% |
| 50–60% | 8 | 55.1% | 75.0% |
| 60–70% | 1 | 64.1% | 0.0% |
| 70–80% | 1 | 73.1% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 9 of 27 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6507 | 0.6685 |
| Avg chance given to result | 36.7% | 35.8% |
| Favourite won | 33.3% | 44.4% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 9 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 27 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.