Lyon vs Red Bull Salzburg – 2 Oct 2025

UEFA Europa League Matchday 2 Thu, Oct 2 · 20:00 Groupama Stadium, Décines-Charpieu

Lyon 11th · 3 pts · 1 played W

2–0Full time

Red Bull Salzburg 32nd · 0 pts · 1 played L

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Lyon were slight favourites.

Lyon were the stronger side on L90 Strength (62 vs 45). Lyon had 4.2 days of rest, Red Bull Salzburg 7 and had to travel 649 km.

Away travel649 kmRest days4.2 · 7Matches / 14d3 · 1

Lyon55%

Draw24%

Red Bull Salzburg21%

Expected goals 1.87 – 1.09

Lyon54%

Draw25%

Red Bull Salzburg21%

Expected goals 1.76 – 1.02

Lyon55%

Draw24%

Red Bull Salzburg21%

Expected goals 1.87 – 1.08

Lyon47%

Draw25%

Red Bull Salzburg27%

Expected goals 1.67 – 1.22

Lyon54%

Draw25%

Red Bull Salzburg21%

Expected goals 1.76 – 1.03

Over 2.5 57% Both score 57% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Décines-Charpieu)

No weather data yet

RefereeAndris Treimanis

Cards per match 5.3
Penalties per match 0.45
Matches 31

Team strength

Lyon

Red Bull Salzburg

62 L90 StrengthIn forecast 45

60 Current StrengthIn forecast 39

55 AttackIn forecast 36

56 DefenceIn forecast 29

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Lyon

Attack—

Defense risk—

Red Bull Salzburg

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Lyon

Red Bull Salzburg

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.70

0.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40

1.61 xGVia Att/Def —

0.99 xG allowedVia Att/Def —

-0.41 Goals minus xGContext —

90% Scored inContext 70%

70% Clean sheetsContext 20%

12.70 ShotsContext 15.80

4.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.70

35% On target shareContext 30%

8.50 Shots in the boxContext 10.30

68% Box shareContext 64%

9% ConversionContext 11%

1.63 OffsidesContext 1.88

11.60 Shots allowedContext 13.10

3.33 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.20

4.10 BlocksContext 3.89

2.44 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.11

73% Save rateContext 68%

56% PossessionIn forecast 58%

477 PassesContext 496

415 Accurate passesContext 421

87% Pass accuracyContext 85%

7.09 Team ratingContext 6.93

14.90 FoulsContext 7.40

14.60 Fouls sufferedContext 9.20

2.40 Yellow cardsContext 1.10

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Lyon

Rest4.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km2,516 km in 14d

Schedule load20%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Red Bull Salzburg

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel649 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Lyon	Red Bull Salzburg
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Moderate · 20	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	4.2Ligue 1 2025-2026, 28 Sep	7UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 25 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	649 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	2,516 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	2 / 3 / 4	1 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	2.8	20.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Lyon Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1D. Greif(G)

3N. Tagliafico 19M. Niakhaté 22Clinton Mata 21R. Kluivert

6F. Tessmann 39Mathys de Carvalho

8C. Tolisso 10P. Šulc 7A. Karabec

20M. Satriano

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Red Bull Salzburg Confirmed XI

4-4-2

1A. Schlager(G)

3A. Terzić 2J. Rasmussen 23J. Gadou 22S. Lainer

14M. Kjærgaard 15M. Diambou 5S. Diabaté 49M. Yeo

11Y. Vertessen 21P. Ratkov

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Lyon Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Red Bull Salzburg Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Lyon-0.3 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Red Bull Salzburg+0.3 pp

Home / Away this season

Lyon · Home No home games yet this season.

Red Bull Salzburg · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Lyon	Red Bull Salzburg	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	0.00
Conceded per game	0.00	1.00
Match goals	1.00	1.00	2.96
Over 1.5	0%	0%
Over 2.5	0%	0%	57%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	0%	0%	57%
Clean sheets	100%	0%
Failed to score	0%	100%
Games	1	1

	Lyon	Red Bull Salzburg	Forecast
Scored per game	1.29	0.00
Conceded per game	0.43	1.00
Match goals	1.71	1.00	2.96
Over 1.5	29%	0%
Over 2.5	29%	0%	57%
Over 3.5	14%	0%
Both teams scored	14%	0%	57%
Clean sheets	86%	0%
Failed to score	0%	100%
Games	7	1

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Lyon	Red Bull Salzburg	League
Corners
Corners won	5.00	2.00
Corners conceded	4.00	8.00
Match total	9.00	10.00	9.52
Over 8.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 9.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1
Over 10.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Cards
Cards	4.00	4.00
Opponent cards	2.00	1.00
Match total	6.00	5.00	4.37
Over 3.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 4.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1

	Lyon	Red Bull Salzburg	League
Corners
Corners won	6.10	4.20
Corners conceded	4.60	4.90
Match total	10.70	9.10	9.52
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	2.50	1.20
Opponent cards	2.40	1.50
Match total	4.90	2.70	4.37
Over 3.5	80% 8/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	70% 7/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Andris Treimanis 31 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards5.00league 4.19

Red cards0.26league 0.19

Cards 5+52%league 41%

Fouls27.3league 26.3

Penalties0.45league 0.30

Home wins55%league 37%

Lyon1 with this referee

Record1-0-0 Cards · opp.5.0 · 7.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

W12 Dec 24H · Eintracht Frankfurt3–25

Red Bull Salzburg1 with this referee

Record1-0-0 Cards · opp.0.0 · 4.0 Pens for · against1 · 0

W5 Oct 22H · Dinamo Zagreb1–00

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.