Malaga
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Malaga were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Absences weigh more on Malaga. Malaga were without Diego Murillo. Malaga had 19.3 days of rest, Espanyol 21 and had to travel 762 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel762 kmRest days19.3 · 21Matches / 14d0 · 0
Malaga44%
Draw25%
Espanyol31%
Malaga44%
Draw26%
Espanyol30%
Malaga44%
Draw25%
Espanyol30%
Malaga36%
Draw25%
Espanyol38%
Malaga43%
Draw25%
Espanyol32%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Málaga)
21°CMainly clear
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 2 km/h
- Humidity 83%
RefereeFrancisco Jose Hernandez Maeso
Team strength
Malaga
Espanyol
44
L90 StrengthIn forecast
44
41
Current StrengthIn forecast
44
28
AttackIn forecast
36
31
DefenceIn forecast
51
21
Form indexContext
27
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisEspanyol
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
MalagaEspanyol
0.43
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.43
1.71
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.43
0.84
xGVia Att/Def
1.22
1.66
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.36
-0.41
Goals minus xGContext
+0.21
43%
Scored inContext
100%
14%
Clean sheetsContext
29%
10.00
ShotsContext
13.57
2.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.86
20%
On target shareContext
28%
5.57
Shots in the boxContext
7.71
61%
Box shareContext
56%
4%
ConversionContext
11%
1.50
OffsidesContext
4.00
14.86
Shots allowedContext
12.00
5.71
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.50
3.86
BlocksContext
3.00
4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.40
70%
Save rateContext
71%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
480
PassesContext
394
416
Accurate passesContext
324
87%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.73
Team ratingContext
6.81
12.86
FoulsContext
17.14
11.71
Fouls sufferedContext
10.71
2.57
Yellow cardsContext
2.86
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.14
0.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
0.84
xGVia Att/Def
1.25
1.66
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.31
-0.24
Goals minus xGContext
+0.25
50%
Scored inContext
100%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
10.80
ShotsContext
13.10
2.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.30
26%
On target shareContext
33%
6.40
Shots in the boxContext
7.40
62%
Box shareContext
56%
6%
ConversionContext
12%
2.00
OffsidesContext
3.63
13.70
Shots allowedContext
12.50
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.44
3.40
BlocksContext
3.44
3.89
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.13
73%
Save rateContext
70%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
474
PassesContext
390
407
Accurate passesContext
316
86%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.89
12.00
FoulsContext
15.20
11.20
Fouls sufferedContext
11.60
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Malaga
LDDLL
Rest19.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 21 · 2 pts vs 5.7 for an average club · -3.5 vs expected
Espanyol
LDWLL
Rest21 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel762 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 27 · 4 pts vs 6.7 for an average club · -2.2 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Malaga |
Espanyol |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 19.3La Liga 2026-2027, 20 Sep | 21La Liga 2026-2027, 18 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 762 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 3 | 0 / 0 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.9 | 7.7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Malaga
Confirmed XI
1Alfonso Herrero(G)
31Rafita
15Ángel Recio
20F. Calero Villa
3Puga
14Rafa Rodríguez
11Joaquín Muñoz
18Pablo Martínez
22Dani Lorenzo
10David Larrubia
9Chupe
Espanyol
Confirmed XI
1Ángel Fortuño(G)
3Q. Hartman
6L. Cabrera
5C. Riedel
23O. El Hilali
10Pol Lozano
8Edu Expósito
15Bryan Zaragoza
28Javi Hernández
24T. Dolan
9R. Fernández Jaén
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Malaga
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals
Attack line −3.4% · Defence line −18.9% of weighted minutes
- DEF Diego Murillo Core 7.29 Def −14.3%
- DEF José Salinas Rotation 6.45 Def −3.9%
- MID A. Ochoa Rotation 6.66 Att −1.4% Def −0.6%
- ATT Julen Lobete Rotation 6.70 Att −2.0%
- MID J. Cajuste Depth 6.60 Att −0.1%
Espanyol
Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals
Attack line −9.3% · Defence line −0.0% of weighted minutes
- ATT Kike García Rotation 6.70 Att −5.9%
- ATT Jofre Carreras Rotation 6.60 Att −3.5%
Total impact vs full squads
- Malaga-0.8 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Espanyol+0.9 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Malaga · Home
0.67points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-1
- Scored
- 0.67
- Conceded
- 1.33
Espanyol · Away
1.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-2
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 1.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Malaga | Espanyol |
|---|---|---|
| Levante | D 0–0 H | W 3–0 H |
| Real Madrid | L 0–4 A | L 1–2 H |
| Points | 1 of 6 · 0.50 per game | 3 of 6 · 1.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Malaga | Espanyol | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.43 | 1.43 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.71 | 1.43 | |
| Match goals | 2.14 | 2.86 | 2.80 |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 29% | 71% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 14% | |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 71% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 57% | 0% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Malaga | Espanyol | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.43 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.71 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.14 | 2.70 | 2.80 |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 29% | 60% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 70% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 57% | 0% | |
| Games | 7 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Malaga | Espanyol | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.43 | 3.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.29 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 10.72 | 7.20 | 9.72 |
| Over 8.5 | 71% 5/7 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 71% 5/7 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 57% 4/7 | 0% 0/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.57 | 3.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.43 | |
| Match total | 4.57 | 5.43 | 4.43 |
| Over 3.5 | 71% 5/7 | 86% 6/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 71% 5/7 | 86% 6/7 | |
| Malaga | Espanyol | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.60 | 3.63 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.80 | 5.13 | |
| Match total | 10.40 | 8.76 | 9.72 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 13% 1/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 4.50 | 4.43 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Malaga7 games · scored 3 · conceded 12
1
0-15
4
16-30
1
3
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
1
4
76-90
Espanyol7 games · scored 10 · conceded 10
2
3
0-15
2
3
16-30
2
31-45
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
3
76-90
Malaga10 games · scored 6 · conceded 14
1
1
0-15
4
16-30
1
3
31-45
46-60
3
1
61-75
1
5
76-90
Espanyol10 games · scored 15 · conceded 12
2
3
0-15
3
4
16-30
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
3
1
61-75
3
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
