Malaga
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Villarreal were the stronger side on L90 Strength (63 vs 48). Malaga had 4.3 days of rest, Villarreal 3 and had to travel 519 km. Weather to note: warm.
Away travel519 kmRest days4.3 · 3Matches / 14d2 · 3
Malaga34%
Draw24%
Villarreal41%
Malaga35%
Draw26%
Villarreal39%
Malaga35%
Draw25%
Villarreal40%
Malaga27%
Draw23%
Villarreal49%
Malaga34%
Draw25%
Villarreal41%
Over 2.5 57%
Both score 59%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Málaga)
Warm
23°CMainly clear
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 3 km/h
- Humidity 82%
Referee · SpainMiguel Angel Ortiz Arias
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.21
- Matches 48
Team strength
Malaga
Villarreal
48
L90 StrengthIn forecast
63
41
Current StrengthIn forecast
65
28
AttackIn forecast
76
31
DefenceIn forecast
73
29
Form indexContext
17
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisVillarreal
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
MalagaVillarreal
0.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
0.94
xGVia Att/Def
1.74
1.47
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.55
-0.54
Goals minus xGContext
-0.34
40%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
10.80
ShotsContext
15.00
1.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.40
17%
On target shareContext
43%
5.80
Shots in the boxContext
10.40
58%
Box shareContext
69%
4%
ConversionContext
9%
1.75
OffsidesContext
3.00
13.60
Shots allowedContext
15.80
5.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.80
3.80
BlocksContext
7.75
3.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
73%
Save rateContext
76%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
61%
519
PassesContext
590
456
Accurate passesContext
525
88%
Pass accuracyContext
89%
6.73
Team ratingContext
6.87
11.40
FoulsContext
11.20
11.20
Fouls sufferedContext
12.60
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
1.35
xGVia Att/Def
1.55
1.30
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.59
-0.55
Goals minus xGContext
+0.15
60%
Scored inContext
80%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
12.00
ShotsContext
12.60
3.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.40
28%
On target shareContext
43%
7.70
Shots in the boxContext
8.60
65%
Box shareContext
68%
7%
ConversionContext
14%
2.25
OffsidesContext
3.00
11.80
Shots allowedContext
15.00
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.30
3.00
BlocksContext
6.13
3.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
79%
Save rateContext
72%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
484
PassesContext
525
417
Accurate passesContext
460
86%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.85
Team ratingContext
6.87
11.60
FoulsContext
10.10
10.70
Fouls sufferedContext
12.70
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Malaga
LDLDD
Rest4.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,431 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 29 · 3 pts vs 5.5 for an average club · -2.7 vs expected
Villarreal
DLLLL
Rest3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel519 km2,826 km in 14d
Schedule load34%Moderate
Form 17 · 1 pts vs 5.4 for an average club · -6.2 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Malaga |
Villarreal |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Moderate · 34 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4.3La Liga 2026-2027, 13 Sep | 3La Liga 2026-2027, 14 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 519 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,431 km | 2,826 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 3 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 2.7 | 2.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Malaga
Confirmed XI
1Alfonso Herrero(G)
12José Salinas
4Einar Galilea
15Ángel Recio
3Puga
23Izan Merino
18Pablo Martínez
8Carlos Dotor
10David Larrubia
19Juan Cruz
9Chupe
Villarreal
Confirmed XI
25P. Gulácsi(G)
23Sergi Cardona
12Renato Veiga
6Pau Navarro
3A. Freeman
17T. Buchanan
14Santi Comesaña
24N. Saliba
11I. Akhomach
22Ayoze Pérez
10Alberto Moleiro
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Malaga
Absences are shown before kick-off
Villarreal
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Malaga-0.9 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Villarreal+1.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Malaga · Home
1.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-0
- Scored
- 0.50
- Conceded
- 0.50
Villarreal · Away
0.67points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-1
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 1.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Malaga | Villarreal |
|---|---|---|
| Deportivo La Coruna | D 1–1 H | L 2–3 H |
| Atletico Madrid | L 0–2 A | D 2–2 A |
| Points | 1 of 6 · 0.50 per game | 1 of 6 · 0.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Malaga | Villarreal | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.40 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 3.40 | 2.96 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 20% | 80% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 80% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 60% | 20% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Malaga | Villarreal | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.40 | 1.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 3.70 | 2.96 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 20% | 70% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 80% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 60% | 20% | |
| Games | 5 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Malaga | Villarreal | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 7.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.80 | 4.20 | |
| Match total | 9.80 | 11.40 | 9.93 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 3/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 3/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 2/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 4.20 | 4.48 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 3/5 | 80% 4/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 3/5 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Malaga | Villarreal | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.10 | 6.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.20 | 4.90 | |
| Match total | 9.30 | 11.50 | 9.93 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 3.40 | 4.48 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Miguel Angel Ortiz Arias Spain · 48 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.79league 4.21
Red cards0.27league 0.26
Cards 5+46%league 50%
Fouls23.0league 24.7
Penalties0.21league 0.34
Home wins40%league 47%
MalagaNo previous matches with this referee.
Villarreal4 with this referee
Record2-1-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- W20 Mar 26H · Real Sociedad3–10
- W21 Apr 24A · Almeria2–14
- D20 Jan 24H · Mallorca1–13
- L13 Aug 23H · Real Betis1–21
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Malaga5 games · scored 2 · conceded 8
0-15
4
16-30
1
1
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
1
2
76-90
Villarreal5 games · scored 7 · conceded 10
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
5
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
2
3
76-90
Malaga10 games · scored 8 · conceded 10
1
0-15
4
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
46-60
3
1
61-75
2
3
76-90
Villarreal10 games · scored 17 · conceded 20
1
0-15
4
2
16-30
6
9
31-45
1
3
46-60
2
1
61-75
3
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
