Mallorca
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
The two sides are close in strength. Absences weigh more on Mallorca. Mallorca had 2.9 days of rest, Alaves 3 and had to travel 575 km.
Away travel575 kmRest days2.9 · 3Matches / 14d3 · 3
Mallorca38%
Draw29%
Alaves33%
Mallorca41%
Draw27%
Alaves32%
Mallorca40%
Draw29%
Alaves32%
Mallorca32%
Draw29%
Alaves40%
Mallorca39%
Draw27%
Alaves33%
Over 2.5 44%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Palma de Mallorca)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainAdrian Cordero Vega
- Cards per match 4.3
- Penalties per match 0.57
- Matches 7
Team strength
Mallorca
Alaves
44
L90 StrengthIn forecast
49
48
Current StrengthIn forecast
48
50
AttackIn forecast
48
59
DefenceIn forecast
55
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAlaves
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
MallorcaAlaves
0.83
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.83
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
0.80
xGVia Att/Def
0.82
1.90
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.92
+0.03
Goals minus xGContext
+0.18
67%
Scored inContext
83%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
17%
10.33
ShotsContext
8.83
4.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
42%
On target shareContext
40%
6.67
Shots in the boxContext
5.80
68%
Box shareContext
58%
8%
ConversionContext
11%
1.67
OffsidesContext
2.80
14.33
Shots allowedContext
10.67
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.50
3.00
BlocksContext
3.50
4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.20
74%
Save rateContext
80%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
367
PassesContext
403
294
Accurate passesContext
315
80%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.70
Team ratingContext
6.81
11.83
FoulsContext
16.83
11.17
Fouls sufferedContext
14.67
1.67
Yellow cardsContext
1.83
0.17
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
0.75
xGVia Att/Def
1.03
1.94
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.03
+0.15
Goals minus xGContext
-0.13
70%
Scored inContext
80%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
9.40
ShotsContext
9.50
3.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.60
37%
On target shareContext
38%
6.10
Shots in the boxContext
6.25
68%
Box shareContext
57%
10%
ConversionContext
10%
1.57
OffsidesContext
2.63
17.70
Shots allowedContext
11.10
6.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.30
4.40
BlocksContext
3.10
5.11
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
78%
Save rateContext
84%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
391
PassesContext
374
315
Accurate passesContext
283
81%
Pass accuracyContext
76%
6.83
Team ratingContext
6.89
13.00
FoulsContext
16.70
10.30
Fouls sufferedContext
13.30
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Mallorca
Rest2.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km1,542 km in 14d
Schedule load28%Moderate
Alaves
Rest3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel575 km693 km in 14d
Schedule load29%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Mallorca |
Alaves |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 28 | Moderate · 29 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 2.9La Liga 2025-2026, 24 Sep | 3La Liga 2025-2026, 24 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 575 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,542 km | 693 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 2 / 3 / 4 | 2 / 3 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Mallorca
Confirmed XI
1Leo Román(G)
22J. Mojica
21Raíllo
24M. Valjent
23Pablo Maffeo
8Manu Morlanes
12Samú Costa
11T. Asano
10Darder
30Marc Domenech
7V. Muriqi
Alaves
Confirmed XI
1Antonio Sivera(G)
24Víctor Parada
5Jon Pacheco
14F. Tenaglia
17Jonny
8Antonio Blanco
21A. Rebbach
10Carles Aleñá
19Pablo Ibáñez
7Carlos Vicente
15L. Boyé
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Mallorca
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Alaves
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Mallorca-1.3 pp
- Draw+0.2 pp
- Alaves+1.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Mallorca · Home
0.67points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-1
- Scored
- 0.67
- Conceded
- 1.67
Alaves · Away
1.33points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-1
- Scored
- 0.67
- Conceded
- 0.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Mallorca | Alaves |
|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid | D 1–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| Points | 1 of 3 · 1.00 per game | 1 of 3 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
2 Mallorca wins3 draws1 Alaves wins
Goals per game0.83 – 0.67
Over 2.517%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets33% · 33%
- 2 Mar 2025Mallorca1–1Alaves
- 1 Nov 2024Alaves1–0Mallorca
- 24 Feb 2024Alaves1–1Mallorca
- 3 Dec 2023Mallorca0–0Alaves
- 19 Apr 2022Mallorca2–1Alaves
- 21 Aug 2021Alaves0–1Mallorca
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Mallorca | Alaves | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.83 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.83 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.67 | 2.00 | 2.44 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 33% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 | 17% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 67% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 17% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 17% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Mallorca | Alaves | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.83 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.83 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.67 | 2.00 | 2.44 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 33% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 | 17% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 67% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 17% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 17% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Mallorca | Alaves | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 4.83 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.67 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 9.67 | 8.83 | 9.42 |
| Over 8.5 | 83% 5/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 2/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 2/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.83 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 3.17 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 5.00 | 4.22 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 4/6 | 83% 5/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 2/6 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Mallorca | Alaves | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.78 | 5.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.56 | 5.10 | |
| Match total | 10.34 | 10.50 | 9.42 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 4.40 | 4.22 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Adrian Cordero Vega Spain · 7 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.86league 3.94
Red cards0.43league 0.25
Cards 5+43%league 41%
Fouls25.3league 24.6
Penalties0.57league 0.30
Home wins71%league 44%
MallorcaNo previous matches with this referee.
AlavesNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Mallorca6 games · scored 5 · conceded 11
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
4
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
2
3
76-90
Alaves6 games · scored 6 · conceded 6
1
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
3
61-75
1
76-90
Mallorca10 games · scored 9 · conceded 16
1
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
1
4
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
3
4
76-90
Alaves10 games · scored 9 · conceded 8
1
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
1
31-45
2
46-60
1
4
61-75
2
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
