Malmo FF
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Malmo FF36.8%fair odds 2.72
Draw26.6%fair odds 3.75
Panathinaikos36.5%fair odds 2.74
Expected goals1.39 – 1.39total 2.78
Likeliest score1–112.6%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Panathinaikos
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Malmo FF ↓ · Panathinaikos → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 8.0 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 12.6 | 8.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.4 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.9 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Malmo FF goals, columns Panathinaikos goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.6%7.93
- 2–18.4%11.98
- 1–28.3%12.03
- 1–08.0%12.52
- 0–18.0%12.58
- 0–06.8%14.67
- 2–06.0%16.63
- 0–26.0%16.77
- 2–25.8%17.24
- 3–13.9%25.76
Winning margin
6.3%
Malmo FF by 3+
fair 15.78
11.0%
Malmo FF by 2
fair 9.12
19.5%
Malmo FF by 1
fair 5.12
26.6%
Draw
fair 3.75
19.4%
Panathinaikos by 1
fair 5.15
10.9%
Panathinaikos by 2
fair 9.20
6.2%
Panathinaikos by 3+
fair 16.01
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
16%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
15%5+
Malmo FF goals
25%0
35%1
24%2
11%3
5%4+
Panathinaikos goals
25%0
35%1
24%2
11%3
5%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Malmo FF win | 36.8% | 37.4% | -0.6 pp |
| Draw | 26.6% | 26.9% | -0.3 pp |
| Panathinaikos win | 36.5% | 35.7% | +0.9 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 52.7% | 51.4% | +1.3 pp |
| Both teams score | 57.1% | 56.1% | +1.0 pp |
| Expected goals Malmo FF | 1.39 | 1.38 | +0.01 |
| Expected goals Panathinaikos | 1.39 | 1.35 | +0.04 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Malmo FF win36.8%2.72
- Draw26.6%3.75
- Panathinaikos win36.5%2.74
- Double chance Malmo FF or draw63.5%1.58
- Double chance Malmo FF or Panathinaikos73.4%1.36
- Double chance Panathinaikos or draw63.2%1.58
- Draw no bet Malmo FF50.2%1.99
- Draw no bet Panathinaikos49.8%2.01
Goals
- Over 0.593.2%1.07
- Over 1.577.2%1.29
- Over 2.552.7%1.90
- Over 3.530.4%3.28
- Over 4.515.0%6.68
- Under 1.522.8%4.40
- Under 2.547.3%2.11
- Under 3.569.6%1.44
Both teams to score
- Yes57.1%1.75
- No42.9%2.33
- Yes and over 2.544.5%2.25
- Malmo FF win and yes18.7%5.35
- Draw and yes19.8%5.05
- Panathinaikos win and yes18.6%5.38
Team goals
- Malmo FF over 0.575.2%1.33
- Malmo FF over 1.540.6%2.46
- Malmo FF over 2.516.5%6.05
- Panathinaikos over 0.575.1%1.33
- Panathinaikos over 1.540.4%2.47
- Panathinaikos over 2.516.4%6.10
- Malmo FF clean sheet24.9%4.01
- Panathinaikos clean sheet24.8%4.03
- Malmo FF win to nil18.1%5.52
- Panathinaikos win to nil18.0%5.56
Handicap
- Malmo FF −1.517.3%5.78
- Malmo FF −2.56.3%15.78
- Panathinaikos +1.582.7%1.21
- Panathinaikos +2.593.7%1.07
- Panathinaikos −1.517.1%5.84
- Malmo FF +1.582.9%1.21
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record UEFA Europa League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored54
Favourite won53.7%
Avg chance given to result39.7%
1X2 Brier0.590
Over 2.5 called right50.0%
BTTS called right51.9%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 5 | 38.8% | 60.0% |
| 40–50% | 24 | 44.3% | 37.5% |
| 50–60% | 21 | 55.0% | 71.4% |
| 60–70% | 3 | 65.7% | 33.3% |
| 70–80% | 1 | 73.1% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 36 of 54 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5890 | 0.6070 |
| Avg chance given to result | 39.9% | 39.6% |
| Favourite won | 52.8% | 61.1% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 36 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 54 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.