Malmo FF
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Panathinaikos were the stronger side on L90 Strength (39 vs 30). Malmo FF had 13.9 days of rest, Panathinaikos 13.9 and had to travel 2,117 km.
Away travel2,117 kmRest days13.9 · 13.9Matches / 14d1 · 1
Malmo FF37%
Draw27%
Panathinaikos37%
Malmo FF37%
Draw27%
Panathinaikos35%
Malmo FF37%
Draw27%
Panathinaikos36%
Malmo FF30%
Draw26%
Panathinaikos44%
Malmo FF37%
Draw27%
Panathinaikos36%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Malmö)
No weather data yet
RefereeNick Walsh
- Cards per match 4.9
- Penalties per match 0.29
- Matches 63
Team strength
Malmo FF
Panathinaikos
30
L90 StrengthIn forecast
39
25
Current StrengthIn forecast
49
24
AttackIn forecast
48
20
DefenceIn forecast
50
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisPanathinaikos
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Malmo FFPanathinaikos
0.67
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
0.44
xGVia Att/Def
1.52
2.20
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.26
+0.23
Goals minus xGContext
+0.48
67%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
8.00
ShotsContext
20.33
3.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.67
38%
On target shareContext
33%
4.67
Shots in the boxContext
11.67
61%
Box shareContext
58%
8%
ConversionContext
10%
1.50
OffsidesContext
4.00
18.00
Shots allowedContext
14.67
7.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
5.00
BlocksContext
4.67
5.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
71%
Save rateContext
60%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
374
PassesContext
468
301
Accurate passesContext
401
80%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.64
Team ratingContext
6.89
9.67
FoulsContext
7.67
11.67
Fouls sufferedContext
14.00
2.33
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.33
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
0.44
xGVia Att/Def
1.52
2.20
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.26
+1.06
Goals minus xGContext
-0.02
70%
Scored inContext
90%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
8.43
ShotsContext
15.60
3.83
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.30
39%
On target shareContext
34%
4.40
Shots in the boxContext
9.70
64%
Box shareContext
62%
12%
ConversionContext
10%
1.33
OffsidesContext
3.63
13.86
Shots allowedContext
9.60
4.86
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.50
4.29
BlocksContext
3.67
3.29
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.00
68%
Save rateContext
52%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
420
PassesContext
502
346
Accurate passesContext
432
82%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.63
Team ratingContext
6.90
10.14
FoulsContext
14.30
13.57
Fouls sufferedContext
15.20
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Malmo FF
Rest13.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Panathinaikos
Rest13.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel2,117 km4,308 km in 14d
Schedule load30%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Malmo FF |
Panathinaikos |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Moderate · 30 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 13.9UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 23 Oct | 13.9UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 23 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 2,117 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 4,308 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 1 | 0 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 21.1 | 21.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Malmo FF
Confirmed XI
33M. Ellborg(G)
25Gabriel Busanello
5A. Đurić
18P. Jansson
17J. Stryger Larsen
37A. Skogmar
40K. Busuladžić
7O. Rosengren
38A. Bolin
29S. Hakšabanović
11E. Ekong
Panathinaikos
Confirmed XI
40A. Lafont(G)
77G. Kyriakopoulos
5A. Touba
14E. Palmer-Brown
27G. Kotsiras
6E. Siopis
4Pedro Chirivella
9A. Zaroury
31F. Đuričić
10Tetê
19K. Świderski
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Malmo FF
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Panathinaikos
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Malmo FF-0.1 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Panathinaikos+0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Malmo FF · Home
0.50points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.50
Panathinaikos · Away
1.50points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-1
- Scored
- 2.50
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Malmo FF | Panathinaikos | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.67 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.67 | 4.00 | 2.78 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 100% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 67% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 100% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 0% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
| Malmo FF | Panathinaikos | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.67 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.67 | 4.00 | 2.78 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 100% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 67% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 100% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 0% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Malmo FF | Panathinaikos | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.67 | 6.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 8.67 | 11.33 | 9.13 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 2/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 1/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 1/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.00 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.67 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 5.67 | 3.00 | 4.20 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 2/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 67% 2/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Malmo FF | Panathinaikos | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.83 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 3.33 | |
| Match total | 8.83 | 8.33 | 9.13 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 4/6 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 3/6 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 3/6 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 4.10 | 4.70 | 4.20 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Nick Walsh 63 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.62league 4.06
Red cards0.27league 0.15
Cards 5+56%league 39%
Fouls25.7league 24.9
Penalties0.29league 0.39
Home wins44%league 48%
Malmo FFNo previous matches with this referee.
PanathinaikosNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Malmo FF3 games · scored 2 · conceded 6
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
1
46-60
61-75
1
1
76-90
Panathinaikos3 games · scored 6 · conceded 6
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
76-90
Malmo FF10 games · scored 15 · conceded 13
2
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
5
31-45
3
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
5
2
76-90
Panathinaikos10 games · scored 15 · conceded 13
4
1
0-15
2
3
16-30
1
1
31-45
5
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
1
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
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