Manchester City
Attack—
Defense risk—
Manchester City
16th · 3 pts · 3 played
WLL
3–0Full time
Manchester United
11th · 4 pts · 3 played
LDW
Our take
Manchester City were clear favourites.
Manchester City were the stronger side on L90 Strength (86 vs 70). Manchester City had 14.1 days of rest, Manchester United 15.1 and had to travel 0 km.
Away travel0 kmRest days14.1 · 15.1Matches / 14d0 · 0
Manchester City60%
Draw22%
Manchester United18%
Manchester City58%
Draw24%
Manchester United19%
Manchester City60%
Draw22%
Manchester United18%
Manchester City52%
Draw24%
Manchester United24%
Manchester City58%
Draw24%
Manchester United19%
Over 2.5 61%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Manchester)
No weather data yet
RefereeAnthony Taylor
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.28
- Matches 183
Team strength
Manchester CityManchester United
86
L90 StrengthIn forecast
70
91
Current StrengthIn forecast
77
92
AttackIn forecast
72
82
DefenceIn forecast
80
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisManchester United
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Manchester CityManchester United
1.67
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.33
1.33
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.33
1.95
xGVia Att/Def
2.26
1.32
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.42
-0.28
Goals minus xGContext
-0.93
67%
Scored inContext
67%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
12.33
ShotsContext
19.33
3.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.33
30%
On target shareContext
28%
7.33
Shots in the boxContext
14.00
60%
Box shareContext
74%
14%
ConversionContext
7%
—
OffsidesContext
1.00
11.00
Shots allowedContext
9.33
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.33
2.67
BlocksContext
3.33
3.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.67
73%
Save rateContext
50%
61%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
548
PassesContext
460
484
Accurate passesContext
380
88%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.96
Team ratingContext
6.92
9.33
FoulsContext
9.67
13.67
Fouls sufferedContext
13.33
1.67
Yellow cardsContext
1.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.98
xGVia Att/Def
1.89
1.15
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.20
+0.02
Goals minus xGContext
-0.29
80%
Scored inContext
60%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
15.10
ShotsContext
16.10
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.40
33%
On target shareContext
34%
9.60
Shots in the boxContext
11.67
63%
Box shareContext
69%
13%
ConversionContext
10%
1.50
OffsidesContext
2.25
8.40
Shots allowedContext
8.60
3.22
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.60
2.33
BlocksContext
2.90
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.50
71%
Save rateContext
50%
63%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
588
PassesContext
495
525
Accurate passesContext
417
89%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
7.15
Team ratingContext
7.04
8.00
FoulsContext
9.10
11.80
Fouls sufferedContext
13.90
1.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Manchester City
Rest14.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Manchester United
Rest15.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Manchester City |
Manchester United |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 14.1Premier League 2025-2026, 31 Aug | 15.1Premier League 2025-2026, 30 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 0 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Manchester City
Confirmed XI
25G. Donnarumma(G)
33N. O'Reilly
24J. Gvardiol
3Rúben Dias
45A. Khusanov
16Rodri
11J. Doku
47P. Foden
4T. Reijnders
20Bernardo Silva
9E. Haaland
Manchester United
Confirmed XI
1A. Bayındır(G)
23L. Shaw
4M. de Ligt
15L. Yoro
13P. Dorgu
8Bruno Fernandes
25M. Ugarte
3N. Mazraoui
16A. Diallo
19B. Mbeumo
30B. Šeško
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Manchester City
Absences are shown before kick-off
Manchester United
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Manchester City+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Manchester United+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Manchester City · Home
0.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Manchester United · Away
1.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings
5 Manchester City wins1 draws4 Manchester United wins
Goals per game2.10 – 1.30
Over 2.570%
Both scored60%
Clean sheets30% · 20%
- 6 Apr 2025Manchester United0–0Manchester City
- 15 Dec 2024Manchester City1–2Manchester United
- 25 May 2024Manchester City1–2Manchester United
- 3 Mar 2024Manchester City3–1Manchester United
- 29 Oct 2023Manchester United0–3Manchester City
- 14 Jan 2023Manchester United2–1Manchester City
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Manchester City | Manchester United | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.67 | 1.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.33 | 1.33 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.67 | 3.16 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 33% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 67% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 33% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
| Manchester City | Manchester United | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.67 | 1.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.33 | 1.33 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.67 | 3.16 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 33% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 67% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 33% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Manchester City | Manchester United | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.67 | 5.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.00 | 4.67 | |
| Match total | 7.67 | 10.00 | 9.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 2/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.67 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.33 | 3.33 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 4.33 | 3.66 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 2/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 1/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Manchester City | Manchester United | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.80 | 4.78 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.40 | 4.78 | |
| Match total | 8.20 | 9.56 | 9.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 2/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.30 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 2.60 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 4.90 | 3.66 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Anthony Taylor 183 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.73league 3.59
Red cards0.16league 0.13
Cards 5+34%league 41%
Fouls21.1league 22.7
Penalties0.28league 0.31
Home wins34%league 49%
Manchester City22 with this referee
Record9-6-7
Cards · opp.1.1 · 2.3
Pens for · against3 · 4
Reds1
- L23 Feb 25H · Liverpool0–20
- D14 Jan 25A · Brentford2–20
- L15 Dec 24H · Manchester United1–21
- W18 Aug 24A · Chelsea2–01
- W11 May 24A · Fulham4–00
Manchester United20 with this referee
Record6-6-8
Cards · opp.2.6 · 0.8
Pens for · against4 · 3
Reds3
- L4 May 25A · Brentford3–42
- D9 Mar 25H · Arsenal1–10
- W26 Jan 25A · Fulham1–01
- W15 Dec 24A · Manchester City2–11
- D24 Nov 24A · Ipswich1–10
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Manchester City3 games · scored 5 · conceded 4
0-15
16-30
3
2
31-45
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
1
76-90
Manchester United3 games · scored 4 · conceded 4
1
0-15
1
16-30
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
61-75
1
76-90
Manchester City10 games · scored 20 · conceded 8
2
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
7
2
31-45
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
6
2
76-90
Manchester United10 games · scored 16 · conceded 13
1
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
5
61-75
8
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
