Manchester United vs Arsenal – 17 Aug 2025

Premier League Gameweek 1 Sun, Aug 17 · 16:30 Old Trafford, Manchester

Manchester United

0–1Full time

Arsenal

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Arsenal were slight favourites.

Arsenal were the stronger side on L90 Strength (91 vs 70). Manchester United had ? days of rest, Arsenal ? and had to travel 262 km.

Away travel262 kmMatches / 14d0 · 0

Manchester United23%

Draw24%

Arsenal53%

Expected goals 1.18 – 1.88

Manchester United24%

Draw25%

Arsenal51%

Expected goals 1.07 – 1.68

Manchester United24%

Draw24%

Arsenal53%

Expected goals 1.17 – 1.85

Manchester United18%

Draw21%

Arsenal61%

Expected goals 1.06 – 2.10

Manchester United23%

Draw25%

Arsenal51%

Expected goals 1.07 – 1.70

Over 2.5 59% Both score 59% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Manchester)

No weather data yet

RefereeSimon Hooper

Cards per match 3.9
Penalties per match 0.17
Matches 124

Team strength

Manchester United

Arsenal

70 L90 StrengthIn forecast 91

77 Current StrengthIn forecast 94

72 AttackIn forecast 86

80 DefenceIn forecast 95

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Manchester United

Attack—

Defense risk—

Arsenal

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Manchester United

Arsenal

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.60

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

1.87 xGVia Att/Def 1.83

1.12 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.24

-0.07 Goals minus xGContext -0.23

60% Scored inContext 90%

20% Clean sheetsContext 20%

16.00 ShotsContext 15.10

5.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.40

34% On target shareContext 36%

11.00 Shots in the boxContext 11.40

64% Box shareContext 75%

11% ConversionContext 11%

2.63 OffsidesContext 1.78

9.10 Shots allowedContext 10.50

2.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.67

2.80 BlocksContext 3.56

1.86 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.63

52% Save rateContext 68%

58% PossessionIn forecast 56%

506 PassesContext 466

431 Accurate passesContext 406

85% Pass accuracyContext 87%

7.10 Team ratingContext 7.07

10.10 FoulsContext 9.20

14.30 Fouls sufferedContext 11.10

2.70 Yellow cardsContext 1.60

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Manchester United

Rest—since last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Arsenal

Rest—since last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel262 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Manchester United	Arsenal
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	—	—
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	262 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 0	0 / 0 / 0
Next matchdays after this one	7	6

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Manchester United Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

1A. Bayındır(G)

23L. Shaw 4M. de Ligt 15L. Yoro

13P. Dorgu 8Bruno Fernandes 18Casemiro 2Diogo Dalot

7Mason Mount 19B. Mbeumo

10Matheus Cunha

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Arsenal Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1David Raya(G)

33R. Calafiori 6Gabriel Magalhães 2W. Saliba 4B. White

41D. Rice 36Martín Zubimendi 8M. Ødegaard

11Gabriel Martinelli 14V. Gyökeres 7B. Saka

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Manchester United Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Arsenal Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Manchester United-0.2 pp
Draw-0.3 pp
Arsenal+0.5 pp

Home / Away this season

Manchester United · Home No home games yet this season.

Arsenal · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

2 Manchester United wins2 draws6 Arsenal wins

Goals per game1.10 – 1.70 Over 2.550% Both scored60% Clean sheets10% · 40%

9 Mar 2025Manchester United1–1Arsenal
4 Dec 2024Arsenal2–0Manchester United
12 May 2024Manchester United0–1Arsenal
3 Sep 2023Arsenal3–1Manchester United
22 Jan 2023Arsenal3–2Manchester United
4 Sep 2022Manchester United3–1Arsenal

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Manchester United	Arsenal	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	3.06
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	59%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	59%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	Manchester United	Arsenal	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	3.06
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	59%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	59%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Manchester United	Arsenal	League
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—	10.50
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—	3.00
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	Manchester United	Arsenal	League
Corners
Corners won	5.67	5.44
Corners conceded	4.33	4.67
Match total	10.00	10.11	10.50
Over 8.5	89% 8/9	56% 5/9
Over 9.5	44% 4/9	44% 4/9
Over 10.5	22% 2/9	44% 4/9
Cards
Cards	2.70	1.70
Opponent cards	2.80	1.80
Match total	5.50	3.50	3.00
Over 3.5	80% 8/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	80% 8/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Simon Hooper 124 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.88league 2.88

Red cards0.05league 0.13

Cards 5+34%league 25%

Fouls21.5league 22.0

Penalties0.17league 0.25

Home wins51%league 50%

Manchester United8 with this referee

Record4-2-2 Cards · opp.1.6 · 2.0 Pens for · against2 · 0

L30 Dec 24H · Newcastle0–21
D30 Mar 24A · Brentford1–12
W9 Mar 24H · Everton2–01
L23 Dec 23A · West Ham0–23
W14 Aug 23H · Wolves1–02

Arsenal11 with this referee

Record9-2-0 Cards · opp.1.7 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

W18 May 25H · Newcastle1–04
D12 Apr 25H · Brentford1–11
W15 Jan 25H · Tottenham2–13
W21 Dec 24A · Crystal Palace5–12
W23 Nov 24H · Nottingham Forest3–03

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.