Manchester United
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Manchester United23.3%fair odds 4.28
Draw23.6%fair odds 4.23
Arsenal53.0%fair odds 1.89
Expected goals1.18 – 1.88total 3.06
Likeliest score1–111.0%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Arsenal
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Manchester United ↓ · Arsenal → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 8.2 | 8.3 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 11.0 | 9.8 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 6.2 | 5.8 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Manchester United goals, columns Arsenal goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.0%9.12
- 1–29.8%10.23
- 0–28.3%12.11
- 0–18.2%12.13
- 2–16.2%16.24
- 1–36.1%16.36
- 2–25.8%17.30
- 0–05.2%19.09
- 0–35.2%19.35
- 1–05.0%20.03
Winning margin
2.9%
Manchester United by 3+
fair 34.00
6.5%
Manchester United by 2
fair 15.40
13.9%
Manchester United by 1
fair 7.19
23.6%
Draw
fair 4.23
22.4%
Arsenal by 1
fair 4.47
16.3%
Arsenal by 2
fair 6.12
14.3%
Arsenal by 3+
fair 6.99
Goal distribution
Total goals
5%0
13%1
22%2
22%3
17%4
19%5+
Manchester United goals
31%0
36%1
21%2
8%3
3%4+
Arsenal goals
15%0
29%1
27%2
17%3
12%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United win | 23.3% | 23.3% | +0.0 pp |
| Draw | 23.6% | 25.2% | -1.6 pp |
| Arsenal win | 53.0% | 51.5% | +1.6 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 59.0% | 52.5% | +6.5 pp |
| Both teams score | 59.3% | 54.5% | +4.8 pp |
| Expected goals Manchester United | 1.18 | 1.07 | +0.11 |
| Expected goals Arsenal | 1.88 | 1.70 | +0.17 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Manchester United win23.3%4.28
- Draw23.6%4.23
- Arsenal win53.0%1.89
- Double chance Manchester United or draw47.0%2.13
- Double chance Manchester United or Arsenal76.4%1.31
- Double chance Arsenal or draw76.7%1.30
- Draw no bet Manchester United30.6%3.27
- Draw no bet Arsenal69.4%1.44
Goals
- Over 0.594.8%1.06
- Over 1.581.5%1.23
- Over 2.559.0%1.69
- Over 3.536.6%2.73
- Over 4.519.5%5.13
- Under 1.518.5%5.41
- Under 2.541.0%2.44
- Under 3.563.4%1.58
Both teams to score
- Yes59.3%1.69
- No40.7%2.46
- Yes and over 2.548.3%2.07
- Manchester United win and yes13.3%7.53
- Draw and yes18.4%5.44
- Arsenal win and yes27.6%3.62
Team goals
- Manchester United over 0.569.4%1.44
- Manchester United over 1.533.1%3.02
- Manchester United over 2.511.7%8.55
- Arsenal over 0.584.7%1.18
- Arsenal over 1.556.0%1.79
- Arsenal over 2.529.0%3.45
- Manchester United clean sheet15.3%6.54
- Arsenal clean sheet30.6%3.27
- Manchester United win to nil10.1%9.94
- Arsenal win to nil25.4%3.94
Handicap
- Manchester United −1.59.4%10.60
- Manchester United −2.52.9%34.00
- Arsenal +1.590.6%1.10
- Arsenal +2.597.1%1.03
- Arsenal −1.530.7%3.26
- Manchester United +1.569.3%1.44
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Premier League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored8
Favourite won50.0%
Avg chance given to result39.2%
1X2 Brier0.609
Over 2.5 called right62.5%
BTTS called right37.5%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40–50% | 4 | 46.2% | 50.0% |
| 50–60% | 3 | 54.1% | 33.3% |
| 60–70% | 1 | 67.5% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 0 of 8 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | — | — |
| Avg chance given to result | — | — |
| Favourite won | — | — |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off.
No verified pre-match bookmaker odds are available for comparison yet.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 8 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.