Maritimo vs Casa Pia – 8 Aug 2026

Primeira Liga Gameweek 1 Sat, Aug 8 · 15:30 Estádio do Marítimo, Ilha da Madeira

Maritimo

1–0Full time

Casa Pia

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

Casa Pia were the stronger side on L90 Strength (22 vs 14). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Casa Pia. Maritimo had ? days of rest, Casa Pia 83.9 and had to travel.

Rest days? · 83.9Matches / 14d0 · 0

Maritimo36%

Draw27%

Casa Pia37%

Expected goals 1.26 – 1.30

Maritimo37%

Draw26%

Casa Pia37%

Expected goals 1.34 – 1.34

Maritimo36%

Draw27%

Casa Pia37%

Expected goals 1.26 – 1.30

Maritimo29%

Draw26%

Casa Pia45%

Expected goals 1.13 – 1.46

Maritimo35%

Draw26%

Casa Pia39%

Expected goals 1.29 – 1.36

Over 2.5 47% Both score 52% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Ilha da Madeira)

No weather data yet

Referee · PortugalSergio Guelho

Cards per match 4.5
Penalties per match 0.09
Matches 23

Team strength

Maritimo

Casa Pia

14 L90 StrengthIn forecast 22

16 Current StrengthIn forecast 18

15 AttackIn forecast 13

20 DefenceIn forecast 25

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Maritimo

Attack—

Defense risk—

Casa Pia

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Maritimo

Casa Pia

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.70

1.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.90

— xGVia Att/Def 0.94

— xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.06

— Goals minus xGContext -0.24

80% Scored inContext 60%

10% Clean sheetsContext 40%

15.40 ShotsContext 10.10

5.10 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.60

33% On target shareContext 36%

10.33 Shots in the boxContext 6.60

62% Box shareContext 66%

10% ConversionContext 7%

1.44 OffsidesContext 1.89

13.10 Shots allowedContext 11.40

4.10 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.90

3.11 BlocksContext 3.88

2.56 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.30

61% Save rateContext 79%

48% PossessionIn forecast 37%

378 PassesContext 257

306 Accurate passesContext 174

81% Pass accuracyContext 68%

6.83 Team ratingContext 6.75

15.70 FoulsContext 16.30

13.90 Fouls sufferedContext 12.00

3.20 Yellow cardsContext 2.70

0.30 Red cardsContext 0.20

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Maritimo

Rest—since last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Casa Pia

Rest83.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel—0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Maritimo	Casa Pia
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	—	83.9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 16 May
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	—
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 0	0 / 0 / 0
Next matchdays after this one	8.2	9.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.

Squad & lineups

Maritimo Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

13Alfonso Pastor(G)

23Paulo Henrique 44Romain Correia 4Rafael Fernandes 2Igor Julião

6Rodrigo Andrade 18V. Danilović

10Martín Tejón 14R. Guzzo 11M. Diouri

17Adrián Butzke

Casa Pia Confirmed XI

4-3-3

31André Gomes(G)

5A. Conté 43David Sousa 4João Goulart 18André Geraldes

8Gabi Pereira 80L. Ofori 24S. Pérez

10Rochinha 9Henrique Araújo 13Oluwakorede Osundina

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Maritimo Absences are shown before kick-off

Casa Pia Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Maritimo+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Casa Pia+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Maritimo · Home No home games yet this season.

Casa Pia · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

0 Maritimo wins0 draws2 Casa Pia wins

Goals per game0.50 – 2.00 Over 2.550% Both scored50% Clean sheets0% · 50%

19 Mar 2023Casa Pia2–0Maritimo
3 Oct 2022Maritimo1–2Casa Pia

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Maritimo	Casa Pia	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	2.56
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	47%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	52%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	Maritimo	Casa Pia	Forecast
Scored per game	—	0.50
Conceded per game	—	1.30
Match goals	—	1.80	2.56
Over 1.5	—	50%
Over 2.5	—	30%	47%
Over 3.5	—	20%
Both teams scored	—	40%	52%
Clean sheets	—	30%
Failed to score	—	50%
Games	0	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Maritimo	Casa Pia	League
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—	13.00
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—	3.00
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	Maritimo	Casa Pia	League
Corners
Corners won	5.90	5.00
Corners conceded	5.80	6.22
Match total	11.70	11.22	13.00
Over 8.5	80% 8/10	78% 7/9
Over 9.5	70% 7/10	56% 5/9
Over 10.5	60% 6/10	33% 3/9
Cards
Cards	3.60	2.90
Opponent cards	2.70	1.90
Match total	6.30	4.80	3.00
Over 3.5	80% 8/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	70% 7/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Sergio Guelho Portugal · 23 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.52league 3.00

Red cards0.00league 0.00

Cards 5+43%league 0%

Fouls26.4league 25.0

Penalties0.09league 0.00

Home wins52%league 0%

Maritimo

No previous matches with this referee.

Casa Pia2 with this referee

Record0-0-2 Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.5 Pens for · against0 · 0

L24 Aug 25A · FC Porto0–41
L16 Mar 25A · Nacional1–31

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.