Maritimo vs Famalicao – 24 Jan 2027

Primeira Liga Gameweek 19 Sun, Jan 24 · 16:00 Estádio do Marítimo, Ilha da Madeira

Maritimo 11th · 8 pts · 8 played LLLDL

VS— Compare

Famalicao 13th · 7 pts · 8 played DDDWL

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel1,222 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2

Real contextStrength only

Maritimo—%

Draw—%

Famalicao—%

Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.

Weather (Ilha da Madeira)

Forecast from 9 Jan

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

Maritimo

Famalicao

— L90 StrengthIn forecast —

16 Current StrengthIn forecast 38

15 AttackIn forecast 24

20 DefenceIn forecast 36

12 Form indexContext 30

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Maritimo

Attack—

Defense risk—

Famalicao

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Maritimo

Famalicao

1.13 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.25

1.75 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.38

1.05 xGVia Att/Def 0.76

1.41 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.44

+0.08 Goals minus xGContext +0.49

88% Scored inContext 75%

13% Clean sheetsContext 25%

10.00 ShotsContext 10.00

3.25 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.25

33% On target shareContext 33%

6.75 Shots in the boxContext 4.75

65% Box shareContext 47%

11% ConversionContext 13%

1.00 OffsidesContext 1.40

14.13 Shots allowedContext 11.88

5.75 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.38

3.57 BlocksContext 2.75

3.88 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.00

67% Save rateContext 59%

45% PossessionIn forecast 55%

366 PassesContext 472

291 Accurate passesContext 405

80% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.55 Team ratingContext 6.77

15.25 FoulsContext 11.63

12.50 Fouls sufferedContext 15.25

1.63 Yellow cardsContext 2.25

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.13

This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games

1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10

1.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.10

1.05 xGVia Att/Def 0.90

1.41 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.13

+0.05 Goals minus xGContext +0.20

90% Scored inContext 70%

20% Clean sheetsContext 40%

11.90 ShotsContext 10.50

3.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.20

30% On target shareContext 31%

7.80 Shots in the boxContext 5.10

64% Box shareContext 48%

9% ConversionContext 11%

1.00 OffsidesContext 1.57

13.60 Shots allowedContext 10.60

5.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.90

3.33 BlocksContext 2.67

3.78 Goalkeeper savesContext 1.80

69% Save rateContext 62%

47% PossessionIn forecast 55%

372 PassesContext 465

300 Accurate passesContext 399

81% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.61 Team ratingContext 6.81

16.00 FoulsContext 10.90

12.70 Fouls sufferedContext 14.50

1.90 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Maritimo LLLDL

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km1,984 km in 14d

Schedule load5%Low

Form 12 · 1 pts vs 6.5 for an average club · -2.6 vs expected

L10 OctH · FC Porto1–20.5 xPts
D19 SepA · GIL Vicente1–10.8 xPts
L14 SepA · Moreirense1–31.1 xPts
L5 SepH · Benfica0–30.4 xPts
L29 AugA · Arouca1–20.9 xPts

Famalicao DDDWL

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel1,222 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load12%Low

Form 30 · 6 pts vs 8.3 for an average club · -1.3 vs expected

L12 OctH · Alverca1–41.8 xPts
W19 SepA · Nacional4–01.7 xPts
D13 SepH · Sporting CP1–10.8 xPts
D5 SepA · Estrela2–21.4 xPts
D30 AugH · GIL Vicente0–01.6 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Maritimo	Famalicao
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 5	Low · 12
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 17 Jan	7Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 17 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	1,222 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,984 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 3	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	7	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.

Squad & lineups

Maritimo Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs FC Porto (H) 1–2, 10 Oct

30Fran Vieites(G)

23Paulo Henrique 22G. Szalai 44Romain Correia 2Igor Julião

14R. Guzzo 21Ibrahim Alani

10Martín Tejón 8M. Dominguez 15Tomás Tavares

17Adrián Butzke

Famalicao Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Alverca (H) 1–4, 12 Oct

25L. Carević(G)

28Pedro Bondo 15Víctor Rofino 36M. Mattara 17Rodrigo Pinheiro

21Tamás Szücs 8Marcos Peña

7Sorriso 14M. De Amorim 23Gil Dias

70G. Koutsias

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Maritimo Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Famalicao Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Maritimo · Home 1.00points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 1-1-2
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.75

Famalicao · Away 1.25points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 1-2-1
Scored: 1.75
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

Opponent	Maritimo	Famalicao
GIL Vicente	D 1–1 A	D 0–0 H
Points	1 of 3 · 1.00 per game	1 of 3 · 1.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings

1 Maritimo wins1 draws1 Famalicao wins

Goals per game1.33 – 1.33 Over 2.567% Both scored67% Clean sheets33% · 33%

16 Aug 2026Famalicao1–2Maritimo
22 Apr 2023Famalicao3–2Maritimo
6 Nov 2022Maritimo0–0Famalicao

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Maritimo	Famalicao
Scored per game	1.13	1.25
Conceded per game	1.75	1.38
Match goals	2.88	2.63
Over 1.5	88%	75%
Over 2.5	75%	50%
Over 3.5	25%	38%
Both teams scored	75%	63%
Clean sheets	13%	25%
Failed to score	13%	25%
Games	8	8

	Maritimo	Famalicao
Scored per game	1.13	1.10
Conceded per game	1.75	1.10
Match goals	2.88	2.20
Over 1.5	88%	60%
Over 2.5	75%	40%
Over 3.5	25%	30%
Both teams scored	75%	50%
Clean sheets	13%	40%
Failed to score	13%	30%
Games	8	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Maritimo	Famalicao	League
Corners
Corners won	2.88	5.75
Corners conceded	4.50	3.88
Match total	7.38	9.63	8.91
Over 8.5	13% 1/8	75% 6/8
Over 9.5	0% 0/8	63% 5/8
Over 10.5	0% 0/8	25% 2/8
Cards
Cards	1.63	2.38
Opponent cards	2.25	2.38
Match total	3.88	4.76	4.55
Over 3.5	38% 3/8	75% 6/8
Over 4.5	25% 2/8	63% 5/8

	Maritimo	Famalicao	League
Corners
Corners won	3.30	6.20
Corners conceded	4.60	3.90
Match total	7.90	10.10	8.91
Over 8.5	30% 3/10	80% 8/10
Over 9.5	10% 1/10	70% 7/10
Over 10.5	10% 1/10	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	2.10	2.10
Opponent cards	2.30	2.40
Match total	4.40	4.50	4.55
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.