Guimaraes
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel311 kmRest days7 · 3.8Matches / 14d2 · 3
Real contextStrength only
Guimaraes—%
Draw—%
Sporting CP—%
Weather (Guimarães)
Forecast from 9 Jan
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Guimaraes and Sporting CP. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Insight
Sporting CP
+0.67
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.71xG against1.04
-
Trend
Sporting CP
70%
Both teams scored
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Insight
Sporting CP
3
Clean sheets
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Insight
Guimaraes
+0.32
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.39xG against1.07
Attack
-
Insight
Sporting CP
+0.67
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.71xG against1.04
-
Trend
Sporting CP
2.5
Goals scored per match
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Trend
Sporting CP
70%
Both teams scored
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Insight
Guimaraes
+0.32
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.39xG against1.07
Defence
Team strength
GuimaraesSporting CP
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
27
Current StrengthIn forecast
83
28
AttackIn forecast
75
39
DefenceIn forecast
81
13
Form indexContext
83
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSporting CP
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GuimaraesSporting CP
0.63
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.50
1.25
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.13
1.48
xGVia Att/Def
1.70
1.13
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.85
-0.85
Goals minus xGContext
+0.80
50%
Scored inContext
100%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
17.25
ShotsContext
12.50
4.57
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.50
23%
On target shareContext
44%
10.63
Shots in the boxContext
8.25
62%
Box shareContext
67%
4%
ConversionContext
20%
1.43
OffsidesContext
1.71
9.13
Shots allowedContext
9.13
3.43
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.14
3.00
BlocksContext
2.14
2.17
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.29
62%
Save rateContext
73%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
449
PassesContext
550
370
Accurate passesContext
488
82%
Pass accuracyContext
89%
6.69
Team ratingContext
6.96
15.63
FoulsContext
11.50
9.88
Fouls sufferedContext
13.38
2.63
Yellow cardsContext
2.25
0.13
Red cardsContext
0.13
0.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.50
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.39
xGVia Att/Def
1.71
1.07
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.04
-0.89
Goals minus xGContext
+0.79
40%
Scored inContext
100%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
16.60
ShotsContext
11.90
4.22
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.40
23%
On target shareContext
45%
10.30
Shots in the boxContext
7.80
62%
Box shareContext
66%
3%
ConversionContext
21%
1.67
OffsidesContext
1.88
8.90
Shots allowedContext
10.40
3.56
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.44
2.63
BlocksContext
2.33
2.25
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.78
62%
Save rateContext
81%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
448
PassesContext
521
370
Accurate passesContext
457
83%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.70
Team ratingContext
7.00
14.70
FoulsContext
11.70
11.20
Fouls sufferedContext
12.60
2.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Guimaraes
LDLDL
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km153 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 13 · 2 pts vs 7.3 for an average club · -4.5 vs expected
Sporting CP
WDDWW
Rest3.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel311 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load21%Moderate
Form 83 · 11 pts vs 6.5 for an average club · +1.8 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Guimaraes |
Sporting CP |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Moderate · 21 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 17 Jan | 3.8UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 20 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 311 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 153 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 2 / 3 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 3.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Guimaraes
Last XI · not confirmed
48O. Zych(G)
13J. Teixeira Mendes
28Thiago Balieiro
21T. Borevković
23T. Strata
8Gonçalo Nogueira
44L. Doucet
7O. Camara
20Samu
17M. Nogueira
9A. Jakupovic
Sporting CP
Last XI · not confirmed
30Kaique(G)
20M. Araújo
25G. Inácio
72Eduardo Quaresma
22Iván Fresneda
77I. Doumbia
5Sergi Altimira
8João Simões
19N. Irankunda
97L. Suárez
10Geny Catamo
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Guimaraes
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Sporting CP
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
Guimaraes · Home
1.25points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-1
- Scored
- 0.50
- Conceded
- 0.50
Sporting CP · Away
2.00points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-0
- Scored
- 2.50
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | Guimaraes | Sporting CP |
|---|---|---|
| SC Braga | L 0–1 A | W 3–1 A |
| Nacional | W 1–0 H | W 2–0 H |
| Arouca | L 0–1 H | D 2–2 H |
| Points | 3 of 9 · 1.00 per game | 7 of 9 · 2.33 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
1 Guimaraes wins1 draws7 Sporting CP wins
Goals per game1.22 – 3.11
Over 2.578%
Both scored56%
Clean sheets0% · 44%
- 14 Aug 2026Sporting CP3–2Guimaraes
- 4 May 2026Sporting CP5–1Guimaraes
- 23 Dec 2025Guimaraes1–4Sporting CP
- 17 May 2025Sporting CP2–0Guimaraes
- 3 Jan 2025Guimaraes4–4Sporting CP
- 21 Apr 2024Sporting CP3–0Guimaraes
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Guimaraes | Sporting CP | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.63 | 2.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.25 | 1.13 | |
| Match goals | 1.88 | 3.63 | |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 25% | 75% | |
| Over 3.5 | 13% | 75% | |
| Both teams scored | 38% | 75% | |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 0% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
| Guimaraes | Sporting CP | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.50 | 2.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 1.80 | 3.50 | |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 20% | 70% | |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 70% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 70% | |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 60% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Guimaraes | Sporting CP | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.75 | 3.57 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 3.29 | |
| Match total | 9.75 | 6.86 | 8.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 38% 3/8 | 14% 1/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 38% 3/8 | 0% 0/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 3/8 | 0% 0/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.75 | 2.38 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 5.25 | 4.88 | 4.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 75% 6/8 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 63% 5/8 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Guimaraes | Sporting CP | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.80 | 3.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.80 | 3.67 | |
| Match total | 9.60 | 6.89 | 8.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 0% 0/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 0% 0/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.70 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 5.20 | 4.60 | 4.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Guimaraes7 games · scored 5 · conceded 9
1
1
0-15
2
16-30
1
31-45
3
46-60
3
1
61-75
1
1
76-90
Sporting CP8 games · scored 20 · conceded 9
4
0-15
4
16-30
3
1
31-45
5
46-60
2
3
61-75
2
5
76-90
Guimaraes9 games · scored 5 · conceded 12
1
1
0-15
2
16-30
1
31-45
3
46-60
3
2
61-75
1
3
76-90
Sporting CP10 games · scored 25 · conceded 10
4
1
0-15
6
16-30
3
1
31-45
6
46-60
4
3
61-75
2
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.
