Metz
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Stade Brestois 29 were slight favourites.
Stade Brestois 29 were the stronger side on L90 Strength (41 vs 14). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Metz. Metz had 7.8 days of rest, Stade Brestois 29 8.9 and had to travel 782 km.
Away travel782 kmRest days7.8 · 8.9Matches / 14d2 · 1
Metz25%
Draw28%
Stade Brestois 2947%
Metz24%
Draw26%
Stade Brestois 2950%
Metz25%
Draw28%
Stade Brestois 2947%
Metz19%
Draw26%
Stade Brestois 2954%
Metz24%
Draw28%
Stade Brestois 2948%
Over 2.5 42%
Both score 47%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Longeville-lès-Metz)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceJeremy Stinat
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.30
- Matches 86
Team strength
Metz
Stade Brestois 29
14
L90 StrengthIn forecast
41
12
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
11
AttackIn forecast
47
17
DefenceIn forecast
36
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisStade Brestois 29
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
MetzStade Brestois 29
0.96
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.35
2.26
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.48
0.94
xGVia Att/Def
1.33
1.73
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.26
+0.02
Goals minus xGContext
+0.02
61%
Scored inContext
70%
17%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
8.48
ShotsContext
11.52
3.32
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.87
32%
On target shareContext
34%
5.60
Shots in the boxContext
7.17
59%
Box shareContext
63%
11%
ConversionContext
12%
1.76
OffsidesContext
1.67
14.39
Shots allowedContext
12.52
5.65
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
3.27
BlocksContext
3.68
3.77
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
64%
Save rateContext
67%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
441
PassesContext
366
379
Accurate passesContext
288
86%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.69
Team ratingContext
6.81
10.83
FoulsContext
13.17
10.96
Fouls sufferedContext
11.39
1.52
Yellow cardsContext
1.74
0.09
Red cardsContext
0.13
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
2.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
0.65
xGVia Att/Def
1.06
1.51
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.08
+0.15
Goals minus xGContext
+0.34
60%
Scored inContext
90%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
8.50
ShotsContext
10.30
3.13
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.90
29%
On target shareContext
38%
4.78
Shots in the boxContext
5.60
55%
Box shareContext
55%
9%
ConversionContext
14%
2.13
OffsidesContext
1.67
13.80
Shots allowedContext
13.10
5.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.10
3.70
BlocksContext
3.80
3.78
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
63%
Save rateContext
73%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
40%
450
PassesContext
346
388
Accurate passesContext
266
86%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.67
Team ratingContext
6.85
10.90
FoulsContext
14.40
9.40
Fouls sufferedContext
12.70
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Metz
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km556 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Stade Brestois 29
Rest8.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel782 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Metz |
Stade Brestois 29 |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.8Ligue 1 2025-2026, 21 Feb | 8.9Ligue 1 2025-2026, 20 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 782 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 556 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 4 | 0 / 1 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Metz
Confirmed XI
1Jonathan Fischer(G)
2M. Colin
5J. Gbamin
38S. Sané
39K. Kouao
8B. Traoré
7G. Tsitaishvili
12Alpha Touré
33Believe Munongo
70B. Sarr
30M. Diallo
Stade Brestois 29
Confirmed XI
30G. Coudert(G)
27D. Guindo
4M. Diaz
5B. Chardonnet
77K. Lala
8H. Magnetti
13J. Chotard
7É. Dina Ebimbe
23K. Doumbia
10R. Del Castillo
19L. Ajorque
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Metz
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Stade Brestois 29
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Metz-0.4 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Stade Brestois 29+0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Metz · Home
0.82points per game · 11 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-3-6
- Scored
- 0.91
- Conceded
- 1.64
Stade Brestois 29 · Away
0.82points per game · 11 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-3-6
- Scored
- 1.18
- Conceded
- 1.91
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Metz | Stade Brestois 29 |
|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint Germain | L 0–3 AL 2–3 H | L 0–3 H |
| Auxerre | L 1–3 HL 1–3 A | W 2–0 H |
| Lille | D 0–0 HL 1–6 A | D 1–1 AD 3–3 H |
| Angers | L 0–1 AD 1–1 H | W 2–0 A |
| Lyon | L 2–5 HL 0–3 A | L 1–2 AD 0–0 H |
| Strasbourg | L 1–2 AL 0–1 H | W 2–1 A |
| Lorient | D 1–1 A | W 2–0 HD 3–3 A |
| Rennes | L 0–1 H | L 1–3 A |
| Nice | W 2–1 H | D 2–2 AW 4–1 H |
| Nantes | W 2–0 A | D 0–0 H |
| Lens | W 2–0 H | L 1–3 A |
| Toulouse | L 0–4 A | L 0–2 HL 0–2 A |
| Marseille | L 0–3 H | W 2–0 HL 0–3 A |
| LE Havre | D 0–0 H | L 0–1 A |
| Monaco | L 2–5 A | W 1–0 H |
| Paris FC | L 2–3 A | L 1–2 H |
| Points | 13 of 66 · 0.59 per game | 27 of 66 · 1.23 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
1 Metz wins0 draws4 Stade Brestois 29 wins
Goals per game1.40 – 2.00
Over 2.560%
Both scored60%
Clean sheets0% · 40%
- 23 Nov 2025Stade Brestois 293–2Metz
- 7 Apr 2024Stade Brestois 294–3Metz
- 10 Dec 2023Metz0–1Stade Brestois 29
- 24 Apr 2022Metz0–1Stade Brestois 29
- 26 Sep 2021Stade Brestois 291–2Metz
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Metz | Stade Brestois 29 | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.96 | 1.35 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.26 | 1.48 | |
| Match goals | 3.22 | 2.83 | 2.37 |
| Over 1.5 | 78% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 61% | 52% | 42% |
| Over 3.5 | 39% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 52% | 48% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 39% | 30% | |
| Games | 23 | 23 |
| Metz | Stade Brestois 29 | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.80 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.20 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.50 | 2.37 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 40% | 42% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Metz | Stade Brestois 29 | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.73 | 4.48 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.91 | 5.05 | |
| Match total | 8.64 | 9.53 | 9.16 |
| Over 8.5 | 32% 7/22 | 48% 10/21 | |
| Over 9.5 | 14% 3/22 | 48% 10/21 | |
| Over 10.5 | 14% 3/22 | 48% 10/21 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 1.87 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.39 | 1.78 | |
| Match total | 3.09 | 3.65 | 4.01 |
| Over 3.5 | 43% 10/23 | 48% 11/23 | |
| Over 4.5 | 26% 6/23 | 39% 9/23 | |
| Metz | Stade Brestois 29 | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.44 | 4.25 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 5.13 | |
| Match total | 7.44 | 9.38 | 9.16 |
| Over 8.5 | 22% 2/9 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/9 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/9 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.10 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 2.80 | 4.40 | 4.01 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jeremy Stinat France · 86 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.73league 3.70
Red cards0.22league 0.29
Cards 5+37%league 36%
Fouls24.6league 23.9
Penalties0.30league 0.40
Home wins42%league 50%
Metz4 with this referee
Record0-0-4
Cards · opp.2.3 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L28 Nov 25H · Rennes0–10
- L18 Feb 24A · Montpellier0–33
- L13 Aug 23A · Rennes1–52
- L6 Mar 22A · Saint Etienne0–14
Stade Brestois 2911 with this referee
Record2-5-4
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.2
Pens for · against2 · 2
- W4 Jan 26H · Auxerre2–03
- L27 Sep 24A · Auxerre0–30
- D4 Feb 24H · Nice0–03
- L26 Aug 23A · Marseille0–21
- D23 Apr 23A · Ajaccio0–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Metz23 games · scored 22 · conceded 52
3
7
0-15
3
7
16-30
3
11
31-45
2
5
46-60
2
5
61-75
9
17
76-90
Stade Brestois 2923 games · scored 31 · conceded 34
6
5
0-15
5
7
16-30
5
6
31-45
6
3
46-60
2
6
61-75
7
7
76-90
Metz10 games · scored 8 · conceded 22
4
0-15
2
3
16-30
3
8
31-45
46-60
1
2
61-75
2
5
76-90
Stade Brestois 2910 games · scored 14 · conceded 11
3
1
0-15
3
3
16-30
1
3
31-45
3
46-60
3
61-75
4
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
