Monaco
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Monaco39.3%fair odds 2.55
Draw26.8%fair odds 3.73
Lyon33.9%fair odds 2.95
Expected goals1.43 – 1.32total 2.75
Likeliest score1–112.7%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Lyon
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Monaco ↓ · Lyon → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 7.8 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.7 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.6 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Monaco goals, columns Lyon goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.7%7.87
- 2–18.6%11.57
- 1–08.5%11.71
- 1–27.9%12.59
- 0–17.8%12.83
- 0–07.1%14.18
- 2–06.6%15.22
- 2–25.7%17.59
- 0–25.5%18.03
- 3–14.1%24.24
Winning margin
7.1%
Monaco by 3+
fair 14.08
11.8%
Monaco by 2
fair 8.47
20.4%
Monaco by 1
fair 4.91
26.8%
Draw
fair 3.73
18.7%
Lyon by 1
fair 5.36
10.0%
Lyon by 2
fair 10.04
5.3%
Lyon by 3+
fair 18.77
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
16%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
14%5+
Monaco goals
24%0
34%1
24%2
12%3
6%4+
Lyon goals
27%0
35%1
23%2
10%3
4%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monaco win | 39.3% | 39.6% | -0.3 pp |
| Draw | 26.8% | 27.1% | -0.3 pp |
| Lyon win | 33.9% | 33.3% | +0.7 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 51.8% | 50.3% | +1.5 pp |
| Both teams score | 56.3% | 55.1% | +1.2 pp |
| Expected goals Monaco | 1.43 | 1.41 | +0.02 |
| Expected goals Lyon | 1.32 | 1.27 | +0.04 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Monaco win39.3%2.55
- Draw26.8%3.73
- Lyon win33.9%2.95
- Double chance Monaco or draw66.1%1.51
- Double chance Monaco or Lyon73.2%1.37
- Double chance Lyon or draw60.7%1.65
- Draw no bet Monaco53.6%1.86
- Draw no bet Lyon46.4%2.16
Goals
- Over 0.592.9%1.08
- Over 1.576.6%1.31
- Over 2.551.8%1.93
- Over 3.529.6%3.38
- Over 4.514.4%6.94
- Under 1.523.4%4.28
- Under 2.548.2%2.07
- Under 3.570.4%1.42
Both teams to score
- Yes56.3%1.78
- No43.7%2.29
- Yes and over 2.543.6%2.29
- Monaco win and yes19.5%5.13
- Draw and yes19.7%5.07
- Lyon win and yes17.1%5.85
Team goals
- Monaco over 0.576.1%1.31
- Monaco over 1.541.9%2.39
- Monaco over 2.517.4%5.74
- Lyon over 0.573.2%1.37
- Lyon over 1.537.9%2.64
- Lyon over 2.514.6%6.83
- Monaco clean sheet26.8%3.73
- Lyon clean sheet23.9%4.19
- Monaco win to nil19.8%5.05
- Lyon win to nil16.8%5.94
Handicap
- Monaco −1.518.9%5.29
- Monaco −2.57.1%14.08
- Lyon +1.581.1%1.23
- Lyon +2.592.9%1.08
- Lyon −1.515.3%6.54
- Monaco +1.584.7%1.18
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Ligue 1 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored145
Favourite won56.6%
Avg chance given to result42.9%
1X2 Brier0.563
Over 2.5 called right53.8%
BTTS called right49.7%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 23 | 38.1% | 52.2% |
| 40–50% | 44 | 44.6% | 47.7% |
| 50–60% | 36 | 53.7% | 50.0% |
| 60–70% | 23 | 64.6% | 69.6% |
| 70–80% | 13 | 74.8% | 76.9% |
| 80%+ | 6 | 85.1% | 83.3% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 117 of 145 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5934 | 0.5814 |
| Avg chance given to result | 41.4% | 41.4% |
| Favourite won | 51.3% | 52.1% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 117 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 145 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.