Monaco
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Lyon were the stronger side on L90 Strength (59 vs 52). Monaco had 19.8 days of rest, Lyon 20.1 and had to travel 298 km.
Away travel298 kmRest days19.8 · 20.1Matches / 14d0 · 0
Monaco39%
Draw27%
Lyon34%
Monaco39%
Draw27%
Lyon33%
Monaco39%
Draw27%
Lyon34%
Monaco32%
Draw27%
Lyon41%
Monaco40%
Draw27%
Lyon33%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Monaco)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceJérôme Brisard
- Cards per match 3.7
- Penalties per match 0.34
- Matches 99
Team strength
Monaco
Lyon
52
L90 StrengthIn forecast
59
56
Current StrengthIn forecast
60
45
AttackIn forecast
55
56
DefenceIn forecast
56
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLyon
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
MonacoLyon
1.63
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.38
1.69
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.65
xGVia Att/Def
1.44
1.58
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.14
-0.02
Goals minus xGContext
-0.06
75%
Scored inContext
81%
13%
Clean sheetsContext
56%
12.38
ShotsContext
12.00
3.88
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.19
31%
On target shareContext
35%
8.60
Shots in the boxContext
8.27
70%
Box shareContext
67%
13%
ConversionContext
12%
3.15
OffsidesContext
1.85
13.13
Shots allowedContext
10.75
4.44
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.47
3.94
BlocksContext
4.15
3.23
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.64
63%
Save rateContext
76%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
475
PassesContext
455
400
Accurate passesContext
392
84%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.89
12.44
FoulsContext
14.25
11.88
Fouls sufferedContext
13.94
2.31
Yellow cardsContext
1.88
0.19
Red cardsContext
0.19
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.52
xGVia Att/Def
1.51
1.64
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.19
-0.32
Goals minus xGContext
+0.19
70%
Scored inContext
60%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
13.00
ShotsContext
11.80
4.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
32%
On target shareContext
38%
9.11
Shots in the boxContext
8.20
72%
Box shareContext
65%
9%
ConversionContext
14%
3.50
OffsidesContext
2.22
15.30
Shots allowedContext
9.40
5.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.89
4.50
BlocksContext
2.71
3.89
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.25
67%
Save rateContext
81%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
417
PassesContext
491
343
Accurate passesContext
427
82%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.88
12.10
FoulsContext
12.00
13.00
Fouls sufferedContext
11.90
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.30
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Monaco
Rest19.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Lyon
Rest20.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel298 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Monaco |
Lyon |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 19.8Ligue 1 2025-2026, 14 Dec | 20.1Ligue 1 2025-2026, 14 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 298 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 1 | 0 / 0 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 13.1 | 15.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Monaco
Confirmed XI
1L. Hrádecký(G)
12Caio Henrique
22M. Salisu
5J. Kehrer
13C. Mawissa
10A. Golovin
4J. Teze
28M. Coulibaly
11M. Akliouche
9F. Balogun
14M. Biereth
Lyon
Confirmed XI
1D. Greif(G)
3N. Tagliafico
21R. Kluivert
22Clinton Mata
98A. Maitland-Niles
8C. Tolisso
23T. Morton
16Abner
44Khalis Merah
17Afonso Moreira
10P. Šulc
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Monaco
Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Lyon
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Monaco+0.1 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Lyon-0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Monaco · Home
2.00points per game · 8 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-1-2
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.50
Lyon · Away
1.13points per game · 8 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-3-3
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.25
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Monaco | Lyon |
|---|---|---|
| Marseille | L 0–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| Stade Brestois 29 | L 0–1 A | D 0–0 A |
| Paris Saint Germain | W 1–0 H | L 2–3 H |
| Rennes | L 1–4 A | L 1–3 A |
| Lens | L 1–4 H | W 1–0 A |
| Paris FC | L 0–1 H | D 3–3 A |
| Nantes | W 5–3 A | W 3–0 H |
| Toulouse | W 1–0 H | L 1–2 H |
| Angers | D 1–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| Nice | D 2–2 H | L 2–3 A |
| Lorient | L 1–3 A | L 0–1 A |
| Metz | W 5–2 H | W 3–0 H |
| Auxerre | W 2–1 A | D 0–0 A |
| Strasbourg | W 3–2 H | W 2–1 H |
| Lille | L 0–1 A | W 1–0 A |
| LE Havre | W 3–1 H | W 1–0 H |
| Points | 23 of 48 · 1.44 per game | 27 of 48 · 1.69 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
4 Monaco wins0 draws4 Lyon wins
Goals per game1.38 – 1.25
Over 2.538%
Both scored38%
Clean sheets38% · 25%
- 10 May 2025Monaco2–0Lyon
- 24 Aug 2024Lyon0–2Monaco
- 28 Apr 2024Lyon3–2Monaco
- 15 Dec 2023Monaco0–1Lyon
- 19 May 2023Lyon3–1Monaco
- 11 Sep 2022Monaco2–1Lyon
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Monaco | Lyon | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.63 | 1.38 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.69 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.31 | 2.38 | 2.75 |
| Over 1.5 | 63% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 56% | 50% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 63% | 38% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 13% | 56% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 19% | |
| Games | 16 | 16 |
| Monaco | Lyon | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 1.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 2.70 | 2.75 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 50% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 30% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Monaco | Lyon | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 6.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.06 | 4.60 | |
| Match total | 8.56 | 10.60 | 9.33 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 8/16 | 67% 10/15 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 7/16 | 40% 6/15 | |
| Over 10.5 | 31% 5/16 | 40% 6/15 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.56 | 2.19 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.94 | 2.63 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 4.82 | 4.06 |
| Over 3.5 | 63% 10/16 | 81% 13/16 | |
| Over 4.5 | 44% 7/16 | 44% 7/16 | |
| Monaco | Lyon | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.10 | 4.38 | |
| Match total | 7.60 | 9.38 | 9.33 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/10 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.80 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.80 | |
| Match total | 4.80 | 5.20 | 4.06 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jérôme Brisard France · 99 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.42league 3.69
Red cards0.26league 0.34
Cards 5+32%league 36%
Fouls24.0league 24.2
Penalties0.34league 0.47
Home wins40%league 51%
Monaco10 with this referee
Record7-2-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.7
Pens for · against4 · 0
Reds1
- W29 Oct 25A · Nantes5–35
- W3 May 25A · Saint Etienne3–10
- W29 Mar 25H · Nice2–12
- L17 Jan 25A · Montpellier1–22
- D4 Feb 24H · LE Havre1–13
Lyon14 with this referee
Record4-3-7
Cards · opp.1.6 · 1.8
Pens for · against3 · 3
Reds2
- L18 Oct 25A · Nice2–32
- L2 Feb 25A · Marseille2–31
- D1 Nov 24A · Lille1–11
- W7 Apr 24A · Nantes3–12
- L3 Mar 24H · Lens0–31
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Monaco16 games · scored 26 · conceded 27
3
1
0-15
1
5
16-30
5
5
31-45
4
3
46-60
5
5
61-75
8
8
76-90
Lyon16 games · scored 22 · conceded 16
3
1
0-15
5
2
16-30
2
3
31-45
5
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
5
8
76-90
Monaco10 games · scored 12 · conceded 16
2
0-15
1
5
16-30
3
3
31-45
1
3
46-60
3
1
61-75
2
4
76-90
Lyon10 games · scored 17 · conceded 10
4
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
1
3
31-45
7
46-60
2
1
61-75
1
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
