Monaco
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Monaco were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Monaco. Monaco had 7.1 days of rest, Rennes 7.2 and had to travel 854 km.
Away travel854 kmRest days7.1 · 7.2Matches / 14d1 · 2
Monaco46%
Draw27%
Rennes27%
Monaco44%
Draw27%
Rennes29%
Monaco46%
Draw27%
Rennes27%
Monaco39%
Draw27%
Rennes34%
Monaco46%
Draw27%
Rennes27%
Over 2.5 50%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Monaco)
No weather data yet
RefereeRuddy Buquet
- Cards per match 4.3
- Penalties per match 0.35
- Matches 69
Team strength
Monaco
Rennes
45
L90 StrengthIn forecast
44
56
Current StrengthIn forecast
52
45
AttackIn forecast
63
56
DefenceIn forecast
39
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisRennes
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
MonacoRennes
1.47
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.58
1.74
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.42
1.51
xGVia Att/Def
1.50
1.49
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.43
-0.04
Goals minus xGContext
+0.08
74%
Scored inContext
79%
16%
Clean sheetsContext
26%
12.00
ShotsContext
13.05
3.84
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.63
32%
On target shareContext
36%
8.11
Shots in the boxContext
8.28
67%
Box shareContext
61%
12%
ConversionContext
12%
3.29
OffsidesContext
2.33
12.84
Shots allowedContext
13.16
4.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.95
3.63
BlocksContext
4.22
3.27
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.89
61%
Save rateContext
71%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
468
PassesContext
458
395
Accurate passesContext
392
84%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.89
13.05
FoulsContext
11.79
11.58
Fouls sufferedContext
11.58
2.32
Yellow cardsContext
1.68
0.21
Red cardsContext
0.16
0.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.19
xGVia Att/Def
1.66
1.35
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.24
-0.49
Goals minus xGContext
+0.14
60%
Scored inContext
80%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
12.90
ShotsContext
13.10
4.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.80
36%
On target shareContext
37%
8.30
Shots in the boxContext
7.90
62%
Box shareContext
59%
5%
ConversionContext
14%
4.20
OffsidesContext
2.20
13.60
Shots allowedContext
13.30
5.13
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
3.70
BlocksContext
4.40
3.25
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
63%
Save rateContext
75%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
424
PassesContext
442
353
Accurate passesContext
374
83%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.71
Team ratingContext
6.96
12.50
FoulsContext
11.60
12.60
Fouls sufferedContext
9.90
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Monaco
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,697 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Rennes
Rest7.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel854 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Monaco |
Rennes |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1Ligue 1 2025-2026, 24 Jan | 7.2Ligue 1 2025-2026, 24 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 854 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,697 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.7 | 6.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Monaco
Confirmed XI
16P. Köhn(G)
5J. Kehrer
6D. Zakaria
4J. Teze
20K. Ouattara
15M. Camara
28M. Coulibaly
27K. Diatta
10A. Golovin
31Ansu Fati
9F. Balogun
Rennes
Confirmed XI
30B. Samba(G)
3L. Brassier
97J. Jacquet
48A. Aït Boudlal
11Mousa Al Ta'mari
26Q. Merlin
6D. Cissé
45M. Camara
95P. Frankowski
7B. Embolo
9E. Lepaul
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Monaco
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Rennes
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Monaco+0.3 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Rennes+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Monaco · Home
1.60points per game · 10 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-1-4
- Scored
- 1.80
- Conceded
- 1.80
Rennes · Away
1.44points per game · 9 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-4-2
- Scored
- 1.22
- Conceded
- 1.78
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Monaco | Rennes |
|---|---|---|
| LE Havre | D 0–0 AW 3–1 H | D 1–1 HD 2–2 A |
| Lorient | L 1–3 HL 1–3 A | L 0–2 HL 0–4 A |
| Lyon | L 1–3 H | W 3–1 H |
| Marseille | L 0–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| Stade Brestois 29 | L 0–1 A | W 3–1 H |
| Paris Saint Germain | W 1–0 H | L 0–5 A |
| Lens | L 1–4 H | D 0–0 H |
| Paris FC | L 0–1 H | W 1–0 A |
| Nantes | W 5–3 A | D 2–2 A |
| Toulouse | W 1–0 H | D 2–2 A |
| Angers | D 1–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| Nice | D 2–2 H | L 1–2 H |
| Metz | W 5–2 H | W 1–0 A |
| Auxerre | W 2–1 A | D 2–2 H |
| Strasbourg | W 3–2 H | W 4–1 H |
| Lille | L 0–1 A | W 2–0 A |
| Points | 24 of 54 · 1.33 per game | 28 of 54 · 1.56 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
6 Monaco wins1 draws2 Rennes wins
Goals per game1.67 – 1.56
Over 2.567%
Both scored78%
Clean sheets11% · 11%
- 22 Nov 2025Rennes4–1Monaco
- 25 Jan 2025Monaco3–2Rennes
- 5 Oct 2024Rennes1–2Monaco
- 7 Apr 2024Monaco1–0Rennes
- 9 Dec 2023Rennes1–2Monaco
- 27 May 2023Rennes2–0Monaco
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Monaco | Rennes | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.47 | 1.58 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.74 | 1.42 | |
| Match goals | 3.21 | 3.00 | 2.69 |
| Over 1.5 | 63% | 79% | |
| Over 2.5 | 58% | 58% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 53% | 53% | |
| Both teams scored | 63% | 58% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 16% | 26% | |
| Failed to score | 26% | 21% | |
| Games | 19 | 19 |
| Monaco | Rennes | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 3.10 | 2.69 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Monaco | Rennes | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.68 | 5.68 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.95 | 4.68 | |
| Match total | 8.63 | 10.36 | 9.18 |
| Over 8.5 | 53% 10/19 | 74% 14/19 | |
| Over 9.5 | 42% 8/19 | 58% 11/19 | |
| Over 10.5 | 32% 6/19 | 47% 9/19 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.58 | 1.89 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.79 | 2.26 | |
| Match total | 4.37 | 4.15 | 3.97 |
| Over 3.5 | 58% 11/19 | 63% 12/19 | |
| Over 4.5 | 42% 8/19 | 47% 9/19 | |
| Monaco | Rennes | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 6.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.78 | 5.40 | |
| Match total | 8.78 | 12.00 | 9.18 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 100% 10/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 4.30 | 3.20 | 3.97 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Ruddy Buquet 69 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.87league 3.64
Red cards0.42league 0.31
Cards 5+45%league 36%
Fouls23.9league 24.3
Penalties0.35league 0.43
Home wins41%league 49%
Monaco11 with this referee
Record6-2-3
Cards · opp.1.9 · 1.9
Pens for · against3 · 1
Reds5
- L27 Sep 25A · Lorient1–33
- W16 Aug 25H · LE Havre3–10
- W21 Apr 24A · Stade Brestois 292–04
- D1 Mar 24H · Paris Saint Germain0–00
- L15 Dec 23H · Lyon0–11
Rennes7 with this referee
Record5-0-2
Cards · opp.2.1 · 3.4
Pens for · against3 · 1
- W14 Sep 25H · Lyon3–12
- W4 May 24A · Metz3–23
- W26 Nov 23H · Reims3–12
- W1 Oct 23H · Nantes3–13
- L23 Apr 23A · Montpellier0–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Monaco19 games · scored 28 · conceded 33
3
1
0-15
1
5
16-30
6
6
31-45
4
4
46-60
5
6
61-75
9
11
76-90
Rennes19 games · scored 30 · conceded 27
2
4
0-15
8
1
16-30
2
5
31-45
8
3
46-60
2
6
61-75
8
8
76-90
Monaco10 games · scored 7 · conceded 16
1
1
0-15
1
3
16-30
1
1
31-45
3
46-60
3
2
61-75
1
6
76-90
Rennes10 games · scored 18 · conceded 13
1
2
0-15
4
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
7
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
4
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
