Moreirense vs Alverca – 10 Aug 2025

Primeira Liga Gameweek 1 Sun, Aug 10 · 20:30 Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, Moreira de Cónegos

Moreirense

2–1Full time

Alverca

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Moreirense were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Moreirense had ? days of rest, Alverca ? and had to travel 283 km.

Away travel283 kmMatches / 14d0 · 0

Moreirense43%

Draw28%

Alverca30%

Expected goals 1.41 – 1.13

Moreirense44%

Draw27%

Alverca29%

Expected goals 1.51 – 1.18

Moreirense43%

Draw28%

Alverca29%

Expected goals 1.42 – 1.12

Moreirense36%

Draw28%

Alverca36%

Expected goals 1.26 – 1.27

Moreirense44%

Draw27%

Alverca30%

Expected goals 1.50 – 1.20

Over 2.5 47% Both score 52% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Moreira de Cónegos)

No weather data yet

Referee · PortugalHelder Malheiro

Cards per match 6.0
Penalties per match 0.41
Matches 44

Team strength

Moreirense

Alverca

28 L90 StrengthIn forecast 27

25 Current StrengthIn forecast 30

17 AttackIn forecast 38

27 DefenceIn forecast 42

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Moreirense

Attack—

Defense risk—

Alverca

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Moreirense

Alverca

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def —

0.74 xGVia Att/Def —

1.26 xG allowedVia Att/Def —

+0.56 Goals minus xGContext —

90% Scored inContext —

30% Clean sheetsContext —

10.20 ShotsContext —

4.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

35% On target shareContext —

5.00 Shots in the boxContext —

46% Box shareContext —

13% ConversionContext —

2.38 OffsidesContext —

12.00 Shots allowedContext —

4.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def —

3.50 BlocksContext —

3.20 Goalkeeper savesContext —

71% Save rateContext —

46% PossessionIn forecast —

359 PassesContext —

289 Accurate passesContext —

81% Pass accuracyContext —

6.89 Team ratingContext —

13.10 FoulsContext —

15.70 Fouls sufferedContext —

2.70 Yellow cardsContext —

0.00 Red cardsContext —

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 0 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Moreirense

Rest—since last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Alverca

Rest—since last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel283 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Moreirense	Alverca
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	—	—
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	283 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 0	0 / 0 / 0
Next matchdays after this one	6.9	6.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Moreirense Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

22Caio Secco(G)

26Maracás 44Marcelo 76Dinis Pinto

27Kiko 80L. Ofori 8M. Stjepanović 7Cedric Teguia

10Kiko Bondoso 11Alan

95Guilherme Schettine

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Alverca Confirmed XI

3-4-3

13André Gomes(G)

33B. Meupiyou 4Kaiky Naves 14S. Baseya

12Isaac James 16Tomás Mendes 8Alexsandro Amorim 22Gonçalo Esteves

10Chiquinho 9M. Milovanović 11Cedric Nuozzi

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Moreirense Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Alverca Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Moreirense-0.5 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Alverca+0.5 pp

Home / Away this season

Moreirense · Home No home games yet this season.

Alverca · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Moreirense	Alverca	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	2.55
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	47%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	52%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	Moreirense	Alverca	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	2.55
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	47%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	52%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Moreirense	Alverca	League
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—	10.75
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—	5.25
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	Moreirense	Alverca	League
Corners
Corners won	2.78	—
Corners conceded	4.22	—
Match total	7.00	—	10.75
Over 8.5	33% 3/9	—
Over 9.5	11% 1/9	—
Over 10.5	11% 1/9	—
Cards
Cards	2.80	—
Opponent cards	3.20	—
Match total	6.00	—	5.25
Over 3.5	80% 8/10	—
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	—

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Helder Malheiro Portugal · 44 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards5.73league 5.25

Red cards0.30league 0.00

Cards 5+70%league 75%

Fouls29.4league 30.8

Penalties0.41league 0.00

Home wins48%league 50%

Moreirense3 with this referee

Record0-2-1 Cards · opp.3.3 · 5.7 Pens for · against2 · 1

D4 Jan 25H · AVS1–13
D11 Dec 23A · GIL Vicente1–13
L14 Aug 23H · FC Porto1–24

Alverca

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.