Moreirense vs Arouca – 21 Mar 2026

Primeira Liga Gameweek 27 Sat, Mar 21 · 15:30 Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, Moreira de Cónegos

Moreirense 8th · 35 pts · 26 played WLDDL

0–1Full time

Arouca 13th · 26 pts · 26 played LWLLL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Arouca. Moreirense had 5.8 days of rest, Arouca 6.8 and had to travel 51 km.

Away travel51 kmRest days5.8 · 6.8Matches / 14d2 · 1

Moreirense37%

Draw28%

Arouca35%

Expected goals 1.27 – 1.24

Moreirense48%

Draw26%

Arouca26%

Expected goals 1.60 – 1.12

Moreirense37%

Draw28%

Arouca35%

Expected goals 1.27 – 1.24

Moreirense30%

Draw28%

Arouca42%

Expected goals 1.14 – 1.38

Moreirense37%

Draw27%

Arouca35%

Expected goals 1.34 – 1.30

Over 2.5 46% Both score 52% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Moreira de Cónegos)

No weather data yet

Referee · PortugalJoao Antonio Ferreira Goncalves

Cards per match 6.1
Penalties per match 0.63
Matches 16

Team strength

Moreirense

Arouca

30 L90 StrengthIn forecast 25

25 Current StrengthIn forecast 34

17 AttackIn forecast 28

27 DefenceIn forecast 37

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Moreirense

Attack—

Defense risk—

Arouca

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Moreirense

Arouca

1.19 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.27

1.46 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.12

0.92 xGVia Att/Def 0.90

1.40 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.59

+0.27 Goals minus xGContext +0.37

73% Scored inContext 69%

27% Clean sheetsContext 19%

8.54 ShotsContext 9.88

3.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.60

38% On target shareContext 35%

5.08 Shots in the boxContext 6.12

58% Box shareContext 59%

14% ConversionContext 13%

1.68 OffsidesContext 2.13

12.81 Shots allowedContext 13.54

4.72 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.00

3.44 BlocksContext 4.22

3.16 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

67% Save rateContext 59%

49% PossessionIn forecast 50%

415 PassesContext 395

346 Accurate passesContext 326

83% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.72 Team ratingContext 6.62

13.85 FoulsContext 13.58

15.23 Fouls sufferedContext 11.58

2.62 Yellow cardsContext 2.62

0.08 Red cardsContext 0.15

This league season, per match · 26 and 26 games

0.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.60

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60

0.61 xGVia Att/Def 1.29

1.41 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.28

+0.19 Goals minus xGContext +0.31

70% Scored inContext 90%

20% Clean sheetsContext 30%

6.60 ShotsContext 11.40

2.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.60

41% On target shareContext 40%

4.11 Shots in the boxContext 7.10

58% Box shareContext 62%

12% ConversionContext 14%

1.57 OffsidesContext 2.43

13.10 Shots allowedContext 12.80

4.78 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.56

3.90 BlocksContext 4.44

3.11 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.13

65% Save rateContext 66%

49% PossessionIn forecast 53%

426 PassesContext 422

356 Accurate passesContext 354

84% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.69 Team ratingContext 6.72

12.60 FoulsContext 12.60

16.20 Fouls sufferedContext 11.70

2.40 Yellow cardsContext 2.60

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Moreirense

Rest5.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km70 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Arouca

Rest6.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel51 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Moreirense	Arouca
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	5.8Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 15 Mar	6.8Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 14 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	51 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	70 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	1 / 1 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	14.1	16.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Moreirense Confirmed XI

4-3-3

13André Ferreira(G)

27Kiko 26Maracás 66G. Dambi Batista 71Leandro Santos

11Alan 8M. Stjepanović 23N. John

10Kiko Bondoso 9Luís Semedo 2Diogo Travassos

Arouca Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

12I. de Arruabarrena(G)

25B. Kuipers 3José Fontán 15Javi Sánchez 28Tiago Esgaio

21T. Fukui 22E. van Ee

7N. Djouahra 14Lee Hyun-Ju 10Pablo Gozálbez

23D. Nandin

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Moreirense Absences are shown before kick-off

Arouca Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Moreirense+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Arouca+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Moreirense · Home 1.67points per game · 12 home games

W-D-L: 6-2-4
Scored: 1.33
Conceded: 1.42

Arouca · Away 0.85points per game · 13 away games

W-D-L: 3-2-8
Scored: 1.15
Conceded: 2.31

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Moreirense	Arouca
FC Porto	L 0–3 AL 1–2 H	L 1–3 AL 0–4 H
Nacional	D 1–1 HL 2–3 A	W 3–0 HW 2–1 A
Casa Pia	D 1–1 AW 2–1 H	L 2–3 AL 0–2 H
Sporting CP	L 0–3 HL 0–3 A	L 1–2 HL 0–6 A
Rio Ave	W 2–1 AW 3–1 H	W 3–0 AD 3–3 H
GIL Vicente	L 1–2 HL 0–2 A	D 2–2 H
Guimaraes	L 0–1 AW 2–0 H	W 3–2 HD 1–1 A
Santa Clara	W 1–0 HW 1–0 A	D 0–0 A
Alverca	L 1–2 AW 2–1 H	W 1–0 H
Tondela	W 1–0 H	L 1–3 A
AVS	W 2–0 A	W 1–0 AW 3–1 H
Estrela	D 0–0 A	L 1–3 A
Benfica	L 0–4 H	L 1–2 HL 0–5 A
Estoril	D 3–3 A	L 3–4 A
Famalicao	D 2–2 H	L 0–1 AD 1–1 H
SC Braga	L 1–2 A	L 0–4 H
Points	32 of 75 · 1.28 per game	26 of 75 · 1.04 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings

4 Moreirense wins0 draws1 Arouca wins

Goals per game1.40 – 0.40 Over 2.520% Both scored20% Clean sheets60% · 20%

2 Nov 2025Arouca0–2Moreirense
24 Jan 2025Arouca1–0Moreirense
18 Aug 2024Moreirense3–1Arouca
17 Mar 2024Moreirense1–0Arouca
27 Oct 2023Arouca0–1Moreirense

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Moreirense	Arouca	Forecast
Scored per game	1.19	1.27
Conceded per game	1.46	2.12
Match goals	2.65	3.38	2.51
Over 1.5	81%	85%
Over 2.5	58%	69%	46%
Over 3.5	19%	50%
Both teams scored	50%	54%	52%
Clean sheets	27%	19%
Failed to score	27%	31%
Games	26	26

	Moreirense	Arouca	Forecast
Scored per game	0.80	1.60
Conceded per game	1.40	1.60
Match goals	2.20	3.20	2.51
Over 1.5	70%	80%
Over 2.5	50%	80%	46%
Over 3.5	0%	40%
Both teams scored	50%	60%	52%
Clean sheets	20%	30%
Failed to score	30%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Moreirense	Arouca	League
Corners
Corners won	4.00	3.60
Corners conceded	4.29	5.20
Match total	8.29	8.80	9.18
Over 8.5	46% 11/24	44% 11/25
Over 9.5	33% 8/24	40% 10/25
Over 10.5	4% 1/24	36% 9/25
Cards
Cards	2.73	2.92
Opponent cards	1.92	2.65
Match total	4.65	5.57	5.18
Over 3.5	65% 17/26	77% 20/26
Over 4.5	50% 13/26	62% 16/26

	Moreirense	Arouca	League
Corners
Corners won	3.44	3.20
Corners conceded	4.89	4.80
Match total	8.33	8.00	9.18
Over 8.5	56% 5/9	30% 3/10
Over 9.5	33% 3/9	30% 3/10
Over 10.5	0% 0/9	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	2.50	2.80
Opponent cards	1.50	3.30
Match total	4.00	6.10	5.18
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Joao Antonio Ferreira Goncalves Portugal · 16 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards5.25league 4.85

Red cards0.88league 0.27

Cards 5+69%league 59%

Fouls26.1league 27.0

Penalties0.63league 0.44

Home wins25%league 41%

Moreirense2 with this referee

Record1-0-1 Cards · opp.3.0 · 3.5 Pens for · against0 · 1

L27 Oct 25H · FC Porto1–23
W17 May 25A · AVS3–03

Arouca3 with this referee

Record1-0-2 Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.3 Pens for · against0 · 2 Reds3

L3 Jan 26A · Tondela1–31
L7 Dec 25A · Estrela1–36
W20 Sep 25A · Nacional2–12

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.