Moreirense
Attack—
Defense risk—
Primeira Liga
Gameweek 14 Sun, Dec 14 · 18:00
Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, Moreira de Cónegos
Our take
Benfica were slight favourites.
Benfica were the stronger side on L90 Strength (78 vs 33). Moreirense had 7.1 days of rest, Benfica 8.9 and had to travel 304 km.
Away travel304 kmRest days7.1 · 8.9Matches / 14d1 · 1
Moreirense18%
Draw24%
Benfica58%
Moreirense18%
Draw23%
Benfica59%
Moreirense18%
Draw24%
Benfica58%
Moreirense13%
Draw21%
Benfica65%
Moreirense18%
Draw23%
Benfica59%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 0–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Moreira de Cónegos)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalHelder Filipe Claudio Carvalho
- Cards per match 4.3
- Penalties per match 1.25
- Matches 4
Team strength
Moreirense
Benfica
33
L90 StrengthIn forecast
78
25
Current StrengthIn forecast
82
17
AttackIn forecast
81
27
DefenceIn forecast
81
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBenfica
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
MoreirenseBenfica
1.62
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.54
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.62
1.14
xGVia Att/Def
1.87
1.58
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.76
+0.48
Goals minus xGContext
+0.13
85%
Scored inContext
92%
23%
Clean sheetsContext
46%
9.08
ShotsContext
15.77
3.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.77
37%
On target shareContext
37%
5.54
Shots in the boxContext
9.92
60%
Box shareContext
62%
18%
ConversionContext
13%
1.80
OffsidesContext
2.33
13.23
Shots allowedContext
8.54
4.85
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.42
3.33
BlocksContext
2.00
3.31
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.92
68%
Save rateContext
85%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
60%
395
PassesContext
495
327
Accurate passesContext
426
83%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.77
Team ratingContext
7.01
14.38
FoulsContext
12.31
14.38
Fouls sufferedContext
13.77
2.92
Yellow cardsContext
2.62
0.08
Red cardsContext
0.08
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
1.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
1.14
xGVia Att/Def
1.59
1.87
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.85
+0.46
Goals minus xGContext
+0.11
80%
Scored inContext
70%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
9.30
ShotsContext
15.50
3.89
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.30
38%
On target shareContext
34%
5.60
Shots in the boxContext
9.40
59%
Box shareContext
59%
17%
ConversionContext
11%
1.88
OffsidesContext
2.83
14.50
Shots allowedContext
7.80
5.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.11
3.50
BlocksContext
2.00
3.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.44
66%
Save rateContext
79%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
393
PassesContext
453
327
Accurate passesContext
384
83%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.75
Team ratingContext
6.91
14.00
FoulsContext
9.40
14.80
Fouls sufferedContext
14.20
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Moreirense
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km623 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Benfica
Rest8.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel304 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Moreirense |
Benfica |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 7 Dec | 8.9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 5 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 304 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 623 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.1 | 8.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Moreirense
Confirmed XI
13André Ferreira(G)
27Kiko
26Maracás
66G. Dambi Batista
76Dinis Pinto
8M. Stjepanović
78Landerson
15Vasco Sousa
20Benny
2Diogo Travassos
95Guilherme Schettine
Benfica
Confirmed XI
1A. Trubin(G)
26S. Dahl
30N. Otamendi
44Tomás Araújo
17A. Dedić
5E. Barrenechea
20Richard Ríos
10H. Sudakov
18L. Barreiro
8F. Aursnes
14V. Pavlidis
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Moreirense
Absences are shown before kick-off
Benfica
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Moreirense+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Benfica+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Moreirense · Home
2.17points per game · 6 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-1-1
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.17
Benfica · Away
2.67points per game · 6 away games
- W-D-L
- 5-1-0
- Scored
- 1.83
- Conceded
- 0.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 10 this season
| Opponent | Moreirense | Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| Arouca | W 2–0 A | W 5–0 H |
| FC Porto | L 1–2 H | D 0–0 A |
| Nacional | L 2–3 A | W 2–1 A |
| Casa Pia | W 2–1 H | D 2–2 H |
| Sporting CP | L 0–3 A | D 1–1 H |
| Rio Ave | W 3–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| GIL Vicente | L 0–2 A | W 2–1 H |
| Guimaraes | W 2–0 H | W 3–0 A |
| Santa Clara | W 1–0 A | D 1–1 H |
| Alverca | W 2–1 H | W 2–1 A |
| Points | 18 of 30 · 1.80 per game | 20 of 30 · 2.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
0 Moreirense wins2 draws2 Benfica wins
Goals per game0.75 – 1.75
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets25% · 50%
- 8 Feb 2025Benfica3–2Moreirense
- 30 Aug 2024Moreirense1–1Benfica
- 14 Apr 2024Benfica3–0Moreirense
- 3 Dec 2023Moreirense0–0Benfica
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Moreirense | Benfica | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.62 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.54 | 0.62 | |
| Match goals | 3.15 | 2.62 | 2.72 |
| Over 1.5 | 92% | 85% | |
| Over 2.5 | 69% | 62% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 31% | 15% | |
| Both teams scored | 62% | 54% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 23% | 46% | |
| Failed to score | 15% | 8% | |
| Games | 13 | 13 |
| Moreirense | Benfica | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.90 | 0.70 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 2.70 | 2.72 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 60% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Moreirense | Benfica | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.17 | 6.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.25 | 2.75 | |
| Match total | 8.42 | 8.75 | 9.16 |
| Over 8.5 | 42% 5/12 | 58% 7/12 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 4/12 | 33% 4/12 | |
| Over 10.5 | 8% 1/12 | 25% 3/12 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.08 | 2.77 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.15 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 5.23 | 5.77 | 5.51 |
| Over 3.5 | 77% 10/13 | 85% 11/13 | |
| Over 4.5 | 62% 8/13 | 69% 9/13 | |
| Moreirense | Benfica | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.10 | 5.78 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.20 | 4.22 | |
| Match total | 8.30 | 10.00 | 9.16 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 10% 1/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.70 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 2.80 | |
| Match total | 4.80 | 5.10 | 5.51 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Helder Filipe Claudio Carvalho Portugal · 4 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.25league 5.17
Red cards0.00league 0.29
Cards 5+50%league 63%
Fouls31.8league 27.5
Penalties1.25league 0.45
Home wins50%league 36%
Moreirense1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 2
- L22 Sep 25A · Sporting CP0–31
Benfica2 with this referee
Record2-0-0
Cards · opp.2.5 · 2.5
Pens for · against3 · 0
- W25 Oct 25H · Arouca5–02
- W16 Aug 25A · Estrela1–03
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Moreirense13 games · scored 21 · conceded 20
5
2
0-15
2
3
16-30
1
2
31-45
5
5
46-60
4
1
61-75
4
7
76-90
Benfica12 games · scored 21 · conceded 8
1
2
0-15
4
16-30
4
31-45
5
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
5
4
76-90
Moreirense10 games · scored 16 · conceded 19
4
2
0-15
1
3
16-30
1
1
31-45
3
5
46-60
4
1
61-75
3
7
76-90
Benfica9 games · scored 12 · conceded 8
1
1
0-15
3
16-30
1
31-45
3
1
46-60
1
3
61-75
4
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
