Moreirense
Attack—
Defense risk—
Primeira Liga
Gameweek 7 Sat, Sep 27 · 15:30
Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, Moreira de Cónegos
Our take
Moreirense were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Moreirense had 4.8 days of rest, Casa Pia 5.8 and had to travel.
Rest days4.8 · 5.8Matches / 14d2 · 2
Moreirense46%
Draw27%
Casa Pia27%
Moreirense47%
Draw26%
Casa Pia27%
Moreirense46%
Draw27%
Casa Pia27%
Moreirense39%
Draw28%
Casa Pia33%
Moreirense47%
Draw26%
Casa Pia27%
Over 2.5 47%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Moreira de Cónegos)
No weather data yet
RefereeJosé Bessa
- Cards per match 4.8
- Penalties per match 0.19
- Matches 21
Team strength
Moreirense
Casa Pia
32
L90 StrengthIn forecast
28
25
Current StrengthIn forecast
18
17
AttackIn forecast
13
27
DefenceIn forecast
25
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCasa Pia
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
MoreirenseCasa Pia
1.33
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.83
1.17
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.08
xGVia Att/Def
0.89
1.39
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.75
+0.25
Goals minus xGContext
-0.06
67%
Scored inContext
50%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
9.00
ShotsContext
8.33
3.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.20
33%
On target shareContext
32%
5.67
Shots in the boxContext
3.80
61%
Box shareContext
45%
15%
ConversionContext
10%
1.50
OffsidesContext
2.00
13.00
Shots allowedContext
13.83
4.83
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
4.00
BlocksContext
4.00
3.83
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.20
79%
Save rateContext
64%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
421
PassesContext
313
356
Accurate passesContext
235
84%
Pass accuracyContext
75%
6.86
Team ratingContext
6.79
14.67
FoulsContext
15.33
14.33
Fouls sufferedContext
17.00
2.83
Yellow cardsContext
3.17
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
0.96
xGVia Att/Def
0.84
1.26
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.80
+0.54
Goals minus xGContext
+0.06
80%
Scored inContext
60%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
9.40
ShotsContext
7.10
4.44
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.00
43%
On target shareContext
34%
5.60
Shots in the boxContext
3.56
58%
Box shareContext
52%
16%
ConversionContext
13%
2.71
OffsidesContext
2.20
12.40
Shots allowedContext
14.70
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.40
4.00
BlocksContext
4.00
3.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
73%
Save rateContext
64%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
387
PassesContext
308
323
Accurate passesContext
230
84%
Pass accuracyContext
75%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.80
13.90
FoulsContext
15.00
14.80
Fouls sufferedContext
15.70
2.70
Yellow cardsContext
3.10
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Moreirense
Rest4.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km608 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Casa Pia
Rest5.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel—0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Moreirense |
Casa Pia |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4.8Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 22 Sep | 5.8Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 21 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | — |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 608 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 2 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 6.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
Moreirense
Confirmed XI
22Caio Secco(G)
8M. Stjepanović
44Marcelo
26Maracás
27Kiko
15Vasco Sousa
11Alan
76Dinis Pinto
10Kiko Bondoso
95Guilherme Schettine
2Diogo Travassos
Casa Pia
Confirmed XI
1P. Sequeira(G)
43David Sousa
27Kaique Rocha
18André Geraldes
5A. Conté
42S. Pérez
74Renato Nhaga
72Gaizka Larrazabal
21Tiago Morais
10Dailon Livramento
29J. Livolant
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Moreirense
Absences are shown before kick-off
Casa Pia
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Moreirense+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Casa Pia+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Moreirense · Home
3.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-0-0
- Scored
- 2.33
- Conceded
- 0.67
Casa Pia · Away
2.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-1
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 1.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Moreirense | Casa Pia |
|---|---|---|
| Sporting CP | L 0–3 A | L 0–2 H |
| Points | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
2 Moreirense wins0 draws2 Casa Pia wins
Goals per game1.50 – 2.25
Over 2.575%
Both scored75%
Clean sheets25% · 0%
- 15 Feb 2025Moreirense3–2Casa Pia
- 14 Sep 2024Casa Pia3–1Moreirense
- 12 May 2024Casa Pia0–1Moreirense
- 8 Jan 2024Moreirense1–4Casa Pia
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Moreirense | Casa Pia | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.33 | 0.83 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.17 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 2.33 | 2.54 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 17% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 17% | 17% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 17% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 50% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Moreirense | Casa Pia | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.33 | 0.83 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.17 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 2.33 | 2.54 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 17% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 17% | 17% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 17% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 50% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Moreirense | Casa Pia | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.60 | 3.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.40 | 5.40 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 8.60 | 8.96 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 3/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 3/5 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/5 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.83 | 3.17 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 4.33 | 5.67 | 4.96 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 3/6 | 83% 5/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 2/6 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Moreirense | Casa Pia | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.67 | 3.25 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.89 | 6.25 | |
| Match total | 8.56 | 9.50 | 8.96 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 11% 1/9 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.70 | 3.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 4.80 | 5.40 | 4.96 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · José Bessa 21 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.48league 4.95
Red cards0.33league 0.20
Cards 5+52%league 60%
Fouls24.3league 28.1
Penalties0.19league 0.42
Home wins52%league 35%
Moreirense5 with this referee
Record3-1-1
Cards · opp.2.2 · 2.2
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W6 Apr 25A · GIL Vicente1–04
- D2 Mar 25H · Estrela1–12
- W12 May 24A · Casa Pia1–02
- L20 Apr 24H · GIL Vicente0–10
- W10 Feb 24H · Chaves1–03
Casa Pia3 with this referee
Record1-0-2
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.7
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L12 May 24H · Moreirense0–12
- W18 Feb 24H · Arouca1–00
- L8 Oct 23H · Estrela0–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Moreirense6 games · scored 8 · conceded 7
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
3
1
46-60
2
61-75
1
5
76-90
Casa Pia6 games · scored 5 · conceded 9
1
0-15
2
16-30
1
4
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
1
76-90
Moreirense10 games · scored 15 · conceded 13
1
0-15
4
16-30
1
2
31-45
5
1
46-60
3
1
61-75
1
9
76-90
Casa Pia10 games · scored 9 · conceded 15
1
0-15
4
16-30
3
5
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
3
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
