Moreirense vs Estoril – 20 Apr 2026

Primeira Liga Gameweek 30 Mon, Apr 20 · 20:15 Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, Moreira de Cónegos

Moreirense 9th · 36 pts · 29 played DLLLD

1–0Full time

Estoril 8th · 37 pts · 29 played DWLLL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Estoril. Moreirense had 10 days of rest, Estoril 8 and had to travel 311 km.

Away travel311 kmRest days10 · 8Matches / 14d1 · 1

Moreirense38%

Draw29%

Estoril33%

Expected goals 1.28 – 1.17

Moreirense41%

Draw27%

Estoril32%

Expected goals 1.45 – 1.23

Moreirense38%

Draw29%

Estoril33%

Expected goals 1.28 – 1.17

Moreirense32%

Draw29%

Estoril40%

Expected goals 1.14 – 1.31

Moreirense39%

Draw28%

Estoril33%

Expected goals 1.35 – 1.21

Over 2.5 44% Both score 50% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Moreira de Cónegos)

No weather data yet

Referee · PortugalMarcio Torres

Cards per match 3.6
Penalties per match 0.57
Matches 7

Team strength

Moreirense

Estoril

28 L90 StrengthIn forecast 31

25 Current StrengthIn forecast 22

17 AttackIn forecast 21

27 DefenceIn forecast 29

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Moreirense

Attack—

Defense risk—

Estoril

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Moreirense

Estoril

1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.76

1.41 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.72

0.87 xGVia Att/Def 1.25

1.43 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.59

+0.23 Goals minus xGContext +0.51

69% Scored inContext 72%

24% Clean sheetsContext 17%

8.21 ShotsContext 11.41

3.21 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.03

38% On target shareContext 35%

4.79 Shots in the boxContext 7.34

56% Box shareContext 64%

13% ConversionContext 15%

1.70 OffsidesContext 1.48

12.90 Shots allowedContext 12.00

4.75 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.46

3.50 BlocksContext 2.77

3.21 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.81

68% Save rateContext 62%

48% PossessionIn forecast 53%

411 PassesContext 429

342 Accurate passesContext 351

83% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.73 Team ratingContext 6.80

13.55 FoulsContext 12.55

14.97 Fouls sufferedContext 12.07

2.59 Yellow cardsContext 2.52

0.07 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 29 and 29 games

0.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.90

0.52 xGVia Att/Def 1.10

1.61 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.63

+0.08 Goals minus xGContext +0.30

50% Scored inContext 70%

0% Clean sheetsContext 20%

6.20 ShotsContext 10.50

2.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.70

40% On target shareContext 35%

3.44 Shots in the boxContext 6.60

54% Box shareContext 63%

10% ConversionContext 13%

1.67 OffsidesContext 1.50

14.20 Shots allowedContext 12.30

5.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.20

4.00 BlocksContext 2.78

3.60 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.78

68% Save rateContext 63%

45% PossessionIn forecast 56%

393 PassesContext 453

322 Accurate passesContext 375

82% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.69 Team ratingContext 6.73

13.60 FoulsContext 12.60

15.00 Fouls sufferedContext 11.10

2.70 Yellow cardsContext 2.10

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Moreirense

Rest10 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km30 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Estoril

Rest8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel311 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Moreirense	Estoril
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	10Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 10 Apr	8Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 12 Apr
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	311 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	30 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 2	0 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	4.9	5.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Moreirense Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

13André Ferreira(G)

2Diogo Travassos 66G. Dambi Batista 4Kevyn Monteiro 70Fabiano

8M. Stjepanović 25Afonso Assis

10Kiko Bondoso 21Rodri Alonso 78Landerson

11Alan

Estoril Confirmed XI

4-1-4-1

16M. Turk(G)

24Pedro Amaral 25F. Bacher 4Ferro 22Pedro Carvalho

5A. Tsoungui

14Y. Begraoui 6Jandro Orellana 8Xeka 70Peixinho

21Pizzi

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Moreirense Absences are shown before kick-off

Estoril Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Moreirense+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Estoril+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Moreirense · Home 1.43points per game · 14 home games

W-D-L: 6-2-6
Scored: 1.14
Conceded: 1.36

Estoril · Away 1.00points per game · 14 away games

W-D-L: 4-2-8
Scored: 1.64
Conceded: 2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Moreirense	Estoril
Famalicao	D 1–1 AD 2–2 H	L 0–4 A
SC Braga	L 0–1 HL 1–2 A	W 1–0 H
Arouca	L 0–1 HW 2–0 A	L 2–3 AW 4–3 H
FC Porto	L 0–3 AL 1–2 H	L 1–3 HL 0–1 A
Nacional	D 1–1 HL 2–3 A	W 1–0 AD 1–1 H
Casa Pia	D 1–1 AW 2–1 H	D 0–0 HD 2–2 A
Sporting CP	L 0–3 HL 0–3 A	L 0–3 AL 0–1 H
Rio Ave	W 2–1 AW 3–1 H	L 1–2 HW 4–0 A
GIL Vicente	L 1–2 HL 0–2 A	W 3–1 HL 0–2 A
Guimaraes	L 0–1 AW 2–0 H	W 4–2 HL 2–3 A
Santa Clara	W 1–0 HW 1–0 A	W 4–2 AL 0–1 H
Alverca	L 1–2 AW 2–1 H	W 4–1 H
Tondela	W 1–0 H	D 2–2 HD 2–2 A
AVS	W 2–0 A	L 0–3 AW 3–1 H
Estrela	D 0–0 A	W 5–0 AD 1–1 H
Benfica	L 0–4 H	L 1–3 A
Points	35 of 84 · 1.25 per game	36 of 84 · 1.29 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings

2 Moreirense wins3 draws0 Estoril wins

Goals per game2.40 – 1.80 Over 2.5100% Both scored100% Clean sheets0% · 0%

7 Dec 2025Estoril3–3Moreirense
11 May 2025Moreirense2–2Estoril
28 Dec 2024Estoril2–2Moreirense
18 May 2024Moreirense2–1Estoril
13 Jan 2024Estoril1–3Moreirense

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Moreirense	Estoril	Forecast
Scored per game	1.10	1.76
Conceded per game	1.41	1.72
Match goals	2.52	3.48	2.45
Over 1.5	76%	79%
Over 2.5	52%	69%	44%
Over 3.5	17%	59%
Both teams scored	48%	59%	50%
Clean sheets	24%	17%
Failed to score	31%	28%
Games	29	29

	Moreirense	Estoril	Forecast
Scored per game	0.60	1.40
Conceded per game	1.50	1.90
Match goals	2.10	3.30	2.45
Over 1.5	70%	80%
Over 2.5	40%	80%	44%
Over 3.5	0%	50%
Both teams scored	50%	60%	50%
Clean sheets	0%	20%
Failed to score	50%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Moreirense	Estoril	League
Corners
Corners won	3.96	4.46
Corners conceded	4.58	4.85
Match total	8.54	9.31	9.35
Over 8.5	50% 13/26	54% 14/26
Over 9.5	38% 10/26	42% 11/26
Over 10.5	8% 2/26	35% 9/26
Cards
Cards	2.69	2.52
Opponent cards	2.07	2.21
Match total	4.76	4.73	5.08
Over 3.5	62% 18/29	86% 25/29
Over 4.5	48% 14/29	55% 16/29

	Moreirense	Estoril	League
Corners
Corners won	3.22	4.33
Corners conceded	5.89	5.00
Match total	9.11	9.33	9.35
Over 8.5	67% 6/9	56% 5/9
Over 9.5	44% 4/9	22% 2/9
Over 10.5	11% 1/9	22% 2/9
Cards
Cards	2.80	2.10
Opponent cards	2.00	2.30
Match total	4.80	4.40	5.08
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Marcio Torres Portugal · 7 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.43league 4.81

Red cards0.14league 0.24

Cards 5+43%league 57%

Fouls25.1league 26.8

Penalties0.57league 0.43

Home wins29%league 41%

Moreirense2 with this referee

Record1-1-0 Cards · opp.2.5 · 1.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

D7 Mar 26H · Nacional1–14
W13 Sep 25H · Rio Ave3–11

Estoril1 with this referee

Record0-1-0 Cards · opp.1.0 · 0.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

D7 Feb 26H · Tondela2–21

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.