Moreirense
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Primeira Liga
Gameweek 30 Mon, Apr 20 · 20:15
Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, Moreira de Cónegos
Moreirense38.4%fair odds 2.60
Draw28.7%fair odds 3.49
Estoril32.9%fair odds 3.04
Expected goals1.28 – 1.17total 2.45
Likeliest score1–113.6%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Estoril
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Moreirense ↓ · Estoril → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 9.4 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 13.6 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.3 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Moreirense goals, columns Estoril goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–113.6%7.35
- 1–010.4%9.61
- 0–19.4%10.63
- 0–09.3%10.70
- 2–18.3%12.08
- 1–27.5%13.26
- 2–07.1%14.09
- 0–25.9%16.99
- 2–24.8%20.72
- 3–13.5%28.30
Winning margin
6.0%
Moreirense by 3+
fair 16.56
11.4%
Moreirense by 2
fair 8.80
21.0%
Moreirense by 1
fair 4.76
28.7%
Draw
fair 3.49
19.1%
Estoril by 1
fair 5.24
9.4%
Estoril by 2
fair 10.61
4.4%
Estoril by 3+
fair 22.64
Goal distribution
Total goals
9%0
20%1
27%2
21%3
13%4
10%5+
Moreirense goals
28%0
36%1
23%2
10%3
4%4+
Estoril goals
31%0
36%1
21%2
8%3
3%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moreirense win | 38.4% | 39.3% | -0.9 pp |
| Draw | 28.7% | 27.9% | +0.8 pp |
| Estoril win | 32.9% | 32.8% | +0.1 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 44.2% | 47.2% | -3.0 pp |
| Both teams score | 50.4% | 52.7% | -2.3 pp |
| Expected goals Moreirense | 1.28 | 1.35 | -0.07 |
| Expected goals Estoril | 1.17 | 1.21 | -0.05 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Moreirense win38.4%2.60
- Draw28.7%3.49
- Estoril win32.9%3.04
- Double chance Moreirense or draw67.1%1.49
- Double chance Moreirense or Estoril71.3%1.40
- Double chance Estoril or draw61.6%1.62
- Draw no bet Moreirense53.9%1.86
- Draw no bet Estoril46.1%2.17
Goals
- Over 0.590.7%1.10
- Over 1.570.8%1.41
- Over 2.544.2%2.26
- Over 3.523.1%4.33
- Over 4.510.2%9.82
- Under 1.529.2%3.43
- Under 2.555.8%1.79
- Under 3.576.9%1.30
Both teams to score
- Yes50.4%1.98
- No49.6%2.02
- Yes and over 2.536.8%2.72
- Moreirense win and yes16.6%6.02
- Draw and yes19.3%5.18
- Estoril win and yes14.5%6.91
Team goals
- Moreirense over 0.572.2%1.38
- Moreirense over 1.536.6%2.73
- Moreirense over 2.513.8%7.22
- Estoril over 0.568.8%1.45
- Estoril over 1.532.5%3.08
- Estoril over 2.511.3%8.83
- Moreirense clean sheet31.2%3.21
- Estoril clean sheet27.8%3.60
- Moreirense win to nil21.8%4.58
- Estoril win to nil18.4%5.42
Handicap
- Moreirense −1.517.4%5.75
- Moreirense −2.56.0%16.56
- Estoril +1.582.6%1.21
- Estoril +2.594.0%1.06
- Estoril −1.513.8%7.23
- Moreirense +1.586.2%1.16
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Primeira Liga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored267
Favourite won57.7%
Avg chance given to result44.1%
1X2 Brier0.537
Over 2.5 called right56.6%
BTTS called right53.2%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 50 | 37.6% | 40.0% |
| 40–50% | 86 | 44.7% | 45.3% |
| 50–60% | 55 | 54.5% | 56.4% |
| 60–70% | 37 | 65.1% | 81.1% |
| 70–80% | 30 | 75.1% | 83.3% |
| 80%+ | 9 | 83.9% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 214 of 267 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5232 | 0.5122 |
| Avg chance given to result | 45.1% | 46.7% |
| Favourite won | 60.7% | 60.3% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 214 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 267 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.