Moreirense vs Famalicao – 29 Nov 2025

Primeira Liga Gameweek 12 Sat, Nov 29 · 15:30 Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, Moreira de Cónegos

Moreirense 6th · 18 pts · 11 played WLLWL

2–2Full time

Famalicao 5th · 19 pts · 11 played DDWWL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

Famalicao were the stronger side on L90 Strength (39 vs 33). Moreirense had 19.8 days of rest, Famalicao 19.9 and had to travel 15 km.

Away travel15 kmRest days19.8 · 19.9Matches / 14d0 · 0

Moreirense39%

Draw28%

Famalicao33%

Expected goals 1.32 – 1.21

Moreirense39%

Draw27%

Famalicao33%

Expected goals 1.40 – 1.27

Moreirense39%

Draw28%

Famalicao33%

Expected goals 1.32 – 1.21

Moreirense32%

Draw28%

Famalicao40%

Expected goals 1.18 – 1.35

Moreirense39%

Draw27%

Famalicao33%

Expected goals 1.40 – 1.27

Over 2.5 46% Both score 52% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Moreira de Cónegos)

No weather data yet

Referee · PortugalDavid Rafael Oliveira da Silva

Cards per match 7.8
Penalties per match 0.40
Matches 5

Team strength

Moreirense

Famalicao

33 L90 StrengthIn forecast 39

25 Current StrengthIn forecast 38

17 AttackIn forecast 24

27 DefenceIn forecast 36

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Moreirense

Attack—

Defense risk—

Famalicao

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Moreirense

Famalicao

1.45 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

1.36 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.45

1.02 xGVia Att/Def 1.21

1.55 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.86

+0.43 Goals minus xGContext -0.21

82% Scored inContext 73%

27% Clean sheetsContext 64%

9.00 ShotsContext 12.91

3.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.90

33% On target shareContext 28%

5.55 Shots in the boxContext 9.18

59% Box shareContext 71%

16% ConversionContext 8%

1.75 OffsidesContext 2.00

13.55 Shots allowedContext 10.73

4.64 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.64

3.60 BlocksContext 2.60

3.27 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.09

71% Save rateContext 85%

47% PossessionIn forecast 50%

389 PassesContext 364

321 Accurate passesContext 291

83% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.79 Team ratingContext 6.95

14.18 FoulsContext 18.64

13.64 Fouls sufferedContext 15.91

2.91 Yellow cardsContext 3.00

0.09 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 11 and 11 games

1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.80

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.50

1.08 xGVia Att/Def 1.23

1.61 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.92

+0.32 Goals minus xGContext -0.43

80% Scored inContext 70%

30% Clean sheetsContext 60%

8.90 ShotsContext 13.60

3.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00

34% On target shareContext 27%

5.50 Shots in the boxContext 9.70

59% Box shareContext 72%

16% ConversionContext 6%

1.86 OffsidesContext 2.00

14.30 Shots allowedContext 11.10

4.90 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.80

3.60 BlocksContext 2.60

3.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.20

71% Save rateContext 84%

46% PossessionIn forecast 51%

378 PassesContext 363

310 Accurate passesContext 290

82% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.80 Team ratingContext 6.91

14.20 FoulsContext 18.50

14.50 Fouls sufferedContext 16.10

2.90 Yellow cardsContext 3.00

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Moreirense

Rest19.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Famalicao

Rest19.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel15 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Moreirense	Famalicao
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	19.8Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 9 Nov	19.9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 9 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	15 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 2	0 / 0 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	8	7.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Moreirense Confirmed XI

4-3-3

13André Ferreira(G)

27Kiko 26Maracás 44Marcelo 76Dinis Pinto

11Alan 8M. Stjepanović 20Benny

78Landerson 95Guilherme Schettine 2Diogo Travassos

Famalicao Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

25L. Carević(G)

28Pedro Bondo 16J. de Haas 55I. Ba 17Rodrigo Pinheiro

14M. De Amorim 6T. van de Looi

7Sorriso 20Gustavo Sá 23Gil Dias

21M. Zabiri

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Moreirense Absences are shown before kick-off

Famalicao Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Moreirense+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Famalicao+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Moreirense · Home 2.40points per game · 5 home games

W-D-L: 4-0-1
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 1.00

Famalicao · Away 2.20points per game · 5 away games

W-D-L: 3-2-0
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 0.40

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 9 this season

Opponent	Moreirense	Famalicao
Arouca	W 2–0 A	D 1–1 A
FC Porto	L 1–2 H	L 0–1 H
Nacional	L 2–3 A	W 1–0 A
Casa Pia	W 2–1 H	D 1–1 A
Sporting CP	L 0–3 A	L 1–2 H
Rio Ave	W 3–1 H	D 0–0 H
GIL Vicente	L 0–2 A	D 0–0 H
Guimaraes	W 2–0 H	W 2–0 H
Santa Clara	W 1–0 A	W 3–0 H
Points	15 of 27 · 1.67 per game	13 of 27 · 1.44 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

1 Moreirense wins2 draws1 Famalicao wins

Goals per game0.25 – 0.50 Over 2.50% Both scored0% Clean sheets75% · 75%

23 Feb 2025Famalicao2–0Moreirense
21 Sep 2024Moreirense0–0Famalicao
28 Jan 2024Moreirense1–0Famalicao
21 Aug 2023Famalicao0–0Moreirense

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Moreirense	Famalicao	Forecast
Scored per game	1.45	1.00
Conceded per game	1.36	0.45
Match goals	2.82	1.45	2.52
Over 1.5	91%	45%
Over 2.5	64%	18%	46%
Over 3.5	18%	0%
Both teams scored	55%	27%	52%
Clean sheets	27%	64%
Failed to score	18%	27%
Games	11	11

	Moreirense	Famalicao	Forecast
Scored per game	1.40	0.80
Conceded per game	1.40	0.50
Match goals	2.80	1.30	2.52
Over 1.5	90%	40%
Over 2.5	60%	10%	46%
Over 3.5	20%	0%
Both teams scored	50%	30%	52%
Clean sheets	30%	60%
Failed to score	20%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Moreirense	Famalicao	League
Corners
Corners won	4.00	5.82
Corners conceded	4.70	4.36
Match total	8.70	10.18	9.10
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	73% 8/11
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	45% 5/11
Over 10.5	10% 1/10	45% 5/11
Cards
Cards	3.00	3.09
Opponent cards	1.91	2.27
Match total	4.91	5.36	5.43
Over 3.5	73% 8/11	73% 8/11
Over 4.5	55% 6/11	64% 7/11

	Moreirense	Famalicao	League
Corners
Corners won	3.78	6.20
Corners conceded	5.00	4.50
Match total	8.78	10.70	9.10
Over 8.5	56% 5/9	80% 8/10
Over 9.5	44% 4/9	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	11% 1/9	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	3.00	3.10
Opponent cards	2.00	2.30
Match total	5.00	5.40	5.43
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · David Rafael Oliveira da Silva Portugal · 5 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards7.80league 5.17

Red cards0.00league 0.27

Cards 5+100%league 65%

Fouls28.6league 27.6

Penalties0.40league 0.49

Home wins20%league 36%

Moreirense1 with this referee

Record1-0-0 Cards · opp.5.0 · 4.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

W17 Aug 25A · Santa Clara1–05

Famalicao

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.