Moreirense
Attack—
Defense risk—
Primeira Liga
Gameweek 3 Sat, Aug 23 · 16:00
Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, Moreira de Cónegos
Our take
It was too close to call.
Guimaraes were the stronger side on L90 Strength (47 vs 31). Moreirense had 5.9 days of rest, Guimaraes 6.9 and had to travel 7 km.
Away travel7 kmRest days5.9 · 6.9Matches / 14d2 · 2
Moreirense33%
Draw28%
Guimaraes39%
Moreirense34%
Draw27%
Guimaraes39%
Moreirense33%
Draw28%
Guimaraes39%
Moreirense27%
Draw27%
Guimaraes46%
Moreirense34%
Draw27%
Guimaraes39%
Over 2.5 48%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Moreira de Cónegos)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalJoao Pedro Pinheiro
- Cards per match 4.6
- Penalties per match 0.27
- Matches 79
Team strength
Moreirense
Guimaraes
31
L90 StrengthIn forecast
47
25
Current StrengthIn forecast
27
17
AttackIn forecast
28
27
DefenceIn forecast
39
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGuimaraes
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
MoreirenseGuimaraes
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
0.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.50
0.96
xGVia Att/Def
1.32
0.80
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.64
+0.54
Goals minus xGContext
+0.18
100%
Scored inContext
50%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
7.50
ShotsContext
13.00
2.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.00
33%
On target shareContext
23%
4.50
Shots in the boxContext
6.00
60%
Box shareContext
47%
20%
ConversionContext
12%
1.50
OffsidesContext
3.00
9.00
Shots allowedContext
14.00
2.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
7.00
—
BlocksContext
2.00
2.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
5.00
80%
Save rateContext
71%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
419
PassesContext
399
351
Accurate passesContext
333
84%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.70
15.50
FoulsContext
12.50
11.50
Fouls sufferedContext
17.50
4.00
Yellow cardsContext
3.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
0.70
xGVia Att/Def
1.12
1.19
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.23
+0.70
Goals minus xGContext
+0.28
90%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
8.70
ShotsContext
12.60
3.89
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.56
40%
On target shareContext
25%
4.40
Shots in the boxContext
7.90
49%
Box shareContext
62%
16%
ConversionContext
11%
2.33
OffsidesContext
2.25
11.70
Shots allowedContext
11.70
4.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.60
3.56
BlocksContext
1.80
2.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.44
69%
Save rateContext
71%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
354
PassesContext
441
288
Accurate passesContext
368
81%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.92
13.70
FoulsContext
13.90
14.90
Fouls sufferedContext
12.90
2.90
Yellow cardsContext
3.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Moreirense
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km3,074 km in 14d
Schedule load10%Low
Guimaraes
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel7 km84 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Moreirense |
Guimaraes |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 10 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 17 Aug | 6.9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 16 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 7 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 3,074 km | 84 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 2 | 1 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.2 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Moreirense
Confirmed XI
22Caio Secco(G)
27Kiko
26Maracás
44Marcelo
76Dinis Pinto
8M. Stjepanović
80L. Ofori
7Cedric Teguia
11Alan
10Kiko Bondoso
95Guilherme Schettine
Guimaraes
Confirmed XI
27Charles(G)
26R. Abascal
3M. Nóbrega
2Miguel Maga
13J. Teixeira Mendes
10Tiago Silva
8Tomás Händel
21Vando Felix
11Gustavo Silva
7Nélson Oliveira
77Nuno Santos
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Moreirense
Absences are shown before kick-off
Guimaraes
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Moreirense+0.3 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Guimaraes-0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Moreirense · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Guimaraes · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 3.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
1 Moreirense wins1 draws2 Guimaraes wins
Goals per game0.75 – 1.00
Over 2.525%
Both scored25%
Clean sheets25% · 50%
- 30 Mar 2025Moreirense2–2Guimaraes
- 3 Nov 2024Guimaraes1–0Moreirense
- 30 Mar 2024Guimaraes1–0Moreirense
- 5 Nov 2023Moreirense1–0Guimaraes
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Moreirense | Guimaraes | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.50 | 2.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 4.00 | 2.60 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 100% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 50% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Moreirense | Guimaraes | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.50 | 2.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 4.00 | 2.60 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 100% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 50% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Moreirense | Guimaraes | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.00 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.00 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 8.00 | 8.50 | 8.86 |
| Over 8.5 | 0% 0/1 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/1 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/1 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 4.00 | 3.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 6.50 | 5.50 | 4.71 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 2/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Moreirense | Guimaraes | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.75 | 5.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.13 | 3.70 | |
| Match total | 6.88 | 9.60 | 8.86 |
| Over 8.5 | 25% 2/8 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 13% 1/8 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 13% 1/8 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.00 | 3.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.90 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 5.90 | 5.30 | 4.71 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Joao Pedro Pinheiro Portugal · 79 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.37league 4.94
Red cards0.18league 0.12
Cards 5+44%league 59%
Fouls26.2league 28.4
Penalties0.27league 0.41
Home wins44%league 41%
Moreirense2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.2.5 · 1.0
Pens for · against2 · 0
- W15 Feb 25H · Casa Pia3–23
- L4 Feb 24A · SC Braga0–12
Guimaraes8 with this referee
Record4-3-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.5
Pens for · against3 · 1
- W9 Mar 25A · Boavista2–11
- D23 Dec 24H · Nacional2–21
- L25 Aug 24A · AVS0–13
- D6 Jan 24A · SC Braga1–10
- W9 Dec 23H · Sporting CP3–23
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Moreirense2 games · scored 3 · conceded 1
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
61-75
1
76-90
Guimaraes2 games · scored 3 · conceded 5
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
76-90
Moreirense10 games · scored 14 · conceded 14
1
1
0-15
4
1
16-30
2
3
31-45
4
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
2
5
76-90
Guimaraes10 games · scored 14 · conceded 15
3
2
0-15
2
16-30
4
2
31-45
3
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
2
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
