Moreirense
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Primeira Liga
Gameweek 3 Sat, Aug 23 · 16:00
Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, Moreira de Cónegos
Moreirense33.4%fair odds 2.99
Draw27.7%fair odds 3.62
Guimaraes38.9%fair odds 2.57
Expected goals1.24 – 1.36total 2.60
Likeliest score1–113.2%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Guimaraes
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Moreirense ↓ · Guimaraes → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 9.4 | 6.9 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 13.2 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.8 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Moreirense goals, columns Guimaraes goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–113.2%7.58
- 0–19.4%10.62
- 1–08.5%11.70
- 1–28.5%11.75
- 0–08.1%12.38
- 2–17.8%12.86
- 0–26.9%14.60
- 2–05.7%17.48
- 2–25.3%18.91
- 1–33.9%25.93
Winning margin
4.9%
Moreirense by 3+
fair 20.50
9.7%
Moreirense by 2
fair 10.30
18.9%
Moreirense by 1
fair 5.30
27.7%
Draw
fair 3.62
20.7%
Guimaraes by 1
fair 4.83
11.6%
Guimaraes by 2
fair 8.61
6.6%
Guimaraes by 3+
fair 15.14
Goal distribution
Total goals
8%0
18%1
26%2
22%3
14%4
12%5+
Moreirense goals
29%0
36%1
22%2
9%3
4%4+
Guimaraes goals
26%0
35%1
24%2
11%3
5%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moreirense win | 33.4% | 34.2% | -0.8 pp |
| Draw | 27.7% | 27.1% | +0.5 pp |
| Guimaraes win | 38.9% | 38.7% | +0.2 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 48.2% | 50.5% | -2.3 pp |
| Both teams score | 53.5% | 55.4% | -1.8 pp |
| Expected goals Moreirense | 1.24 | 1.30 | -0.06 |
| Expected goals Guimaraes | 1.36 | 1.40 | -0.04 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Moreirense win33.4%2.99
- Draw27.7%3.62
- Guimaraes win38.9%2.57
- Double chance Moreirense or draw61.1%1.64
- Double chance Moreirense or Guimaraes72.3%1.38
- Double chance Guimaraes or draw66.6%1.50
- Draw no bet Moreirense46.2%2.16
- Draw no bet Guimaraes53.8%1.86
Goals
- Over 0.591.9%1.09
- Over 1.574.0%1.35
- Over 2.548.2%2.07
- Over 3.526.4%3.78
- Over 4.512.3%8.14
- Under 1.526.0%3.84
- Under 2.551.8%1.93
- Under 3.573.6%1.36
Both teams to score
- Yes53.5%1.87
- No46.5%2.15
- Yes and over 2.540.3%2.48
- Moreirense win and yes15.8%6.32
- Draw and yes19.6%5.11
- Guimaraes win and yes18.1%5.52
Team goals
- Moreirense over 0.571.1%1.41
- Moreirense over 1.535.3%2.84
- Moreirense over 2.513.0%7.70
- Guimaraes over 0.574.3%1.35
- Guimaraes over 1.539.4%2.54
- Guimaraes over 2.515.7%6.38
- Moreirense clean sheet25.7%3.89
- Guimaraes clean sheet28.9%3.46
- Moreirense win to nil17.6%5.68
- Guimaraes win to nil20.8%4.81
Handicap
- Moreirense −1.514.6%6.86
- Moreirense −2.54.9%20.50
- Guimaraes +1.585.4%1.17
- Guimaraes +2.595.1%1.05
- Guimaraes −1.518.2%5.49
- Moreirense +1.581.8%1.22
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Primeira Liga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored17
Favourite won76.5%
Avg chance given to result48.8%
1X2 Brier0.435
Over 2.5 called right64.7%
BTTS called right52.9%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 1 | 37.4% | 100.0% |
| 40–50% | 6 | 43.5% | 50.0% |
| 50–60% | 6 | 53.9% | 83.3% |
| 60–70% | 2 | 66.3% | 100.0% |
| 70–80% | 2 | 73.6% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 8 of 17 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.4426 | 0.4290 |
| Avg chance given to result | 48.2% | 49.3% |
| Favourite won | 75.0% | 75.0% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 8 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 17 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.