Moreirense vs Guimaraes

Primeira Liga Gameweek 24 Sun, Feb 28 · 16:00 Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, Moreira de Cónegos

Moreirense 12th · 8 pts · 8 played LLWDL

VS— Compare

Guimaraes 15th · 5 pts · 8 played LDLDL

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel7 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2

Real contextStrength only

Moreirense—%

Draw—%

Guimaraes—%

Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.

Weather (Moreira de Cónegos)

Forecast from 13 Feb

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Insight Guimaraes +0.32 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for1.39xG against1.07

Defence

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

Moreirense

Guimaraes

— L90 StrengthIn forecast —

25 Current StrengthIn forecast 27

17 AttackIn forecast 28

27 DefenceIn forecast 39

23 Form indexContext 13

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Moreirense

Attack—

Defense risk—

Guimaraes

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Moreirense

Guimaraes

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.63

1.88 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.25

0.51 xGVia Att/Def 1.48

1.46 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.13

+0.49 Goals minus xGContext -0.85

63% Scored inContext 50%

13% Clean sheetsContext 25%

7.88 ShotsContext 17.25

2.75 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.57

35% On target shareContext 23%

4.25 Shots in the boxContext 10.63

55% Box shareContext 62%

13% ConversionContext 4%

— OffsidesContext 1.43

15.13 Shots allowedContext 9.13

5.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.43

3.88 BlocksContext 3.00

2.88 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.17

58% Save rateContext 62%

36% PossessionIn forecast 54%

324 PassesContext 449

244 Accurate passesContext 370

75% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.48 Team ratingContext 6.69

13.63 FoulsContext 15.63

13.00 Fouls sufferedContext 9.88

2.63 Yellow cardsContext 2.63

0.13 Red cardsContext 0.13

This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games

0.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.50

1.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30

0.53 xGVia Att/Def 1.39

1.38 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.07

+0.27 Goals minus xGContext -0.89

50% Scored inContext 40%

20% Clean sheetsContext 20%

8.50 ShotsContext 16.60

2.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.22

33% On target shareContext 23%

4.50 Shots in the boxContext 10.30

54% Box shareContext 62%

9% ConversionContext 3%

1.00 OffsidesContext 1.67

14.20 Shots allowedContext 8.90

4.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.56

4.00 BlocksContext 2.63

2.67 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.25

56% Save rateContext 62%

41% PossessionIn forecast 57%

364 PassesContext 448

286 Accurate passesContext 370

79% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.54 Team ratingContext 6.70

12.70 FoulsContext 14.70

12.90 Fouls sufferedContext 11.20

2.50 Yellow cardsContext 2.60

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Moreirense LLWDL

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km2,460 km in 14d

Schedule load5%Low

Form 23 · 4 pts vs 7.4 for an average club · -0.8 vs expected

L9 OctH · GIL Vicente0–11.4 xPts
D20 SepA · Guimaraes1–10.9 xPts
W14 SepH · Maritimo3–11.7 xPts
L9 SepH · Benfica0–40.5 xPts
L4 SepA · FC Porto1–20.4 xPts

Guimaraes LDLDL

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel7 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 13 · 2 pts vs 7.3 for an average club · -4.5 vs expected

L11 OctA · Benfica0–20.4 xPts
D20 SepH · Moreirense1–11.9 xPts
L12 SepA · Academico Viseu1–21.3 xPts
D6 SepH · Casa Pia0–02.1 xPts
L31 AugA · SC Braga0–10.9 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Moreirense	Guimaraes
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 5	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 21 Feb	7Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 21 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	7 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	2,460 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	7	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.

Squad & lineups

Moreirense Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs GIL Vicente (H) 0–1, 9 Oct

13André Ferreira(G)

27Kiko 26Maracás 66G. Dambi Batista 76Dinis Pinto

65Guilherme Liberato 23N. John

19Tiago Andrade 7Manuel Mendonça 10Kiko Bondoso

79L. Vonić

Guimaraes Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Benfica (A) 0–2, 11 Oct

48O. Zych(G)

13J. Teixeira Mendes 28Thiago Balieiro 21T. Borevković 23T. Strata

8Gonçalo Nogueira 44L. Doucet

7O. Camara 20Samu 17M. Nogueira

9A. Jakupovic

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Moreirense Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Guimaraes Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Moreirense · Home 1.00points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 1-1-2
Scored: 1.25
Conceded: 2.00

Guimaraes · Away 0.00points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 0-0-4
Scored: 0.75
Conceded: 2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 4 this season

Opponent	Moreirense	Guimaraes
Benfica	L 0–4 H	L 0–2 A
Casa Pia	W 1–0 A	D 0–0 H
Arouca	L 0–4 A	L 0–1 H
SC Braga	D 2–2 H	L 0–1 A
Points	4 of 12 · 1.00 per game	1 of 12 · 0.25 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings

2 Moreirense wins2 draws3 Guimaraes wins

Goals per game0.86 – 0.86 Over 2.514% Both scored29% Clean sheets29% · 43%

20 Sep 2026Guimaraes1–1Moreirense
30 Jan 2026Guimaraes1–0Moreirense
23 Aug 2025Moreirense2–0Guimaraes
30 Mar 2025Moreirense2–2Guimaraes
3 Nov 2024Guimaraes1–0Moreirense
30 Mar 2024Guimaraes1–0Moreirense

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Moreirense	Guimaraes
Scored per game	1.00	0.63
Conceded per game	1.88	1.25
Match goals	2.88	1.88
Over 1.5	75%	50%
Over 2.5	63%	25%
Over 3.5	50%	13%
Both teams scored	50%	38%
Clean sheets	13%	25%
Failed to score	38%	50%
Games	8	8

	Moreirense	Guimaraes
Scored per game	0.80	0.50
Conceded per game	1.70	1.30
Match goals	2.50	1.80
Over 1.5	70%	50%
Over 2.5	50%	20%
Over 3.5	40%	10%
Both teams scored	40%	30%
Clean sheets	20%	20%
Failed to score	50%	60%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Moreirense	Guimaraes	League
Corners
Corners won	2.50	5.75
Corners conceded	4.88	4.00
Match total	7.38	9.75	8.91
Over 8.5	25% 2/8	38% 3/8
Over 9.5	25% 2/8	38% 3/8
Over 10.5	0% 0/8	38% 3/8
Cards
Cards	2.75	2.75
Opponent cards	1.88	2.50
Match total	4.63	5.25	4.55
Over 3.5	75% 6/8	75% 6/8
Over 4.5	50% 4/8	63% 5/8

	Moreirense	Guimaraes	League
Corners
Corners won	3.30	5.80
Corners conceded	4.30	3.80
Match total	7.60	9.60	8.91
Over 8.5	30% 3/10	40% 4/10
Over 9.5	20% 2/10	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	0% 0/10	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	2.60	2.70
Opponent cards	1.80	2.50
Match total	4.40	5.20	4.55
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.