Famalicao vs Nacional – 28 Feb 2027

Primeira Liga Gameweek 24 Sun, Feb 28 · 16:00 Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho, Vila Nova de Famalicão

Famalicao 13th · 7 pts · 8 played DDDWL

VS— Compare

Nacional 16th · 4 pts · 8 played LLLLL

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel1,222 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2

Real contextStrength only

Famalicao—%

Draw—%

Nacional—%

Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.

Weather (Vila Nova de Famalicão)

Forecast from 13 Feb

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Trend Famalicao 63% Both teams scored Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored

Defence

Streaks

Streak Nacional 6 Losses in a row Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Losses in a row

Team strength

Famalicao

Nacional

— L90 StrengthIn forecast —

38 Current StrengthIn forecast 17

24 AttackIn forecast 15

36 DefenceIn forecast 13

30 Form indexContext 5

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Famalicao

Attack—

Defense risk—

Nacional

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Famalicao

Nacional

1.25 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.13

1.38 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.25

0.76 xGVia Att/Def 1.16

1.44 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.92

+0.49 Goals minus xGContext -0.03

75% Scored inContext 63%

25% Clean sheetsContext 13%

10.00 ShotsContext 11.00

3.25 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.57

33% On target shareContext 28%

4.75 Shots in the boxContext 7.29

47% Box shareContext 60%

13% ConversionContext 10%

1.40 OffsidesContext 1.50

11.88 Shots allowedContext 14.63

3.38 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.25

2.75 BlocksContext 3.14

2.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.63

59% Save rateContext 58%

55% PossessionIn forecast 50%

472 PassesContext 406

405 Accurate passesContext 334

86% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.77 Team ratingContext 6.61

11.63 FoulsContext 11.13

15.25 Fouls sufferedContext 12.25

2.25 Yellow cardsContext 1.25

0.13 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games

1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10

1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00

0.90 xGVia Att/Def 1.05

1.13 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.76

+0.20 Goals minus xGContext +0.05

70% Scored inContext 60%

40% Clean sheetsContext 20%

10.50 ShotsContext 10.50

3.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.22

31% On target shareContext 28%

5.10 Shots in the boxContext 6.78

48% Box shareContext 60%

11% ConversionContext 11%

1.57 OffsidesContext 1.43

10.60 Shots allowedContext 14.20

2.90 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.60

2.67 BlocksContext 3.22

1.80 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.78

62% Save rateContext 63%

55% PossessionIn forecast 49%

465 PassesContext 390

399 Accurate passesContext 317

86% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.81 Team ratingContext 6.61

10.90 FoulsContext 12.20

14.50 Fouls sufferedContext 11.90

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.60

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Famalicao DDDWL

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km606 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 30 · 6 pts vs 8.3 for an average club · -1.3 vs expected

L12 OctH · Alverca1–41.8 xPts
W19 SepA · Nacional4–01.7 xPts
D13 SepH · Sporting CP1–10.8 xPts
D5 SepA · Estrela2–21.4 xPts
D30 AugH · GIL Vicente0–01.6 xPts

Nacional LLLLL

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel1,222 km1,984 km in 14d

Schedule load17%Low

Form 5 · 0 pts vs 8.3 for an average club · -5.4 vs expected

L11 OctA · Rio Ave2–31.0 xPts
L19 SepH · Famalicao0–41.1 xPts
L12 SepH · Alverca1–31.4 xPts
L5 SepA · Sporting CP0–20.3 xPts
L30 AugH · Estrela2–31.6 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Famalicao	Nacional
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 17
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 21 Feb	7Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 21 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	1,222 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	606 km	1,984 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	7	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Famalicao Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Alverca (H) 1–4, 12 Oct

25L. Carević(G)

28Pedro Bondo 15Víctor Rofino 36M. Mattara 17Rodrigo Pinheiro

21Tamás Szücs 8Marcos Peña

7Sorriso 14M. De Amorim 23Gil Dias

70G. Koutsias

Nacional Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Rio Ave (A) 2–3, 11 Oct

1R. Bellucci(G)

21W. Kokolo 38Zé Vitor 33Francisco Gonçalves 88Deivison

31D. Dongmo 15C. Labidi

12M. Song 20M. Djaló 10Daniel Júnior

29N. Kader

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Famalicao Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Nacional Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Famalicao · Home 0.50points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 0-2-2
Scored: 0.75
Conceded: 1.75

Nacional · Away 0.25points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 0-1-3
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 5 this season

Opponent	Famalicao	Nacional
Alverca	L 1–4 H	L 1–3 H
Sporting CP	D 1–1 H	L 0–2 A
Estrela	D 2–2 A	L 2–3 H
Santa Clara	L 0–1 A	D 2–2 A
Estoril	D 1–1 A	W 2–0 H
Points	3 of 15 · 0.60 per game	4 of 15 · 0.80 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings

3 Famalicao wins1 draws1 Nacional wins

Goals per game1.40 – 0.40 Over 2.540% Both scored20% Clean sheets80% · 20%

19 Sep 2026Nacional0–4Famalicao
21 Mar 2026Famalicao1–0Nacional
1 Nov 2025Nacional0–1Famalicao
1 Mar 2025Nacional2–1Famalicao
29 Sep 2024Famalicao0–0Nacional

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Famalicao	Nacional
Scored per game	1.25	1.13
Conceded per game	1.38	2.25
Match goals	2.63	3.38
Over 1.5	75%	88%
Over 2.5	50%	63%
Over 3.5	38%	63%
Both teams scored	63%	50%
Clean sheets	25%	13%
Failed to score	25%	38%
Games	8	8

	Famalicao	Nacional
Scored per game	1.10	1.10
Conceded per game	1.10	2.00
Match goals	2.20	3.10
Over 1.5	60%	90%
Over 2.5	40%	50%
Over 3.5	30%	50%
Both teams scored	50%	40%
Clean sheets	40%	20%
Failed to score	30%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Famalicao	Nacional	League
Corners
Corners won	5.75	5.50
Corners conceded	3.88	4.33
Match total	9.63	9.83	8.91
Over 8.5	75% 6/8	50% 3/6
Over 9.5	63% 5/8	50% 3/6
Over 10.5	25% 2/8	33% 2/6
Cards
Cards	2.38	1.38
Opponent cards	2.38	2.63
Match total	4.76	4.01	4.55
Over 3.5	75% 6/8	50% 4/8
Over 4.5	63% 5/8	25% 2/8

	Famalicao	Nacional	League
Corners
Corners won	6.20	5.13
Corners conceded	3.90	4.50
Match total	10.10	9.63	8.91
Over 8.5	80% 8/10	50% 4/8
Over 9.5	70% 7/10	50% 4/8
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	25% 2/8
Cards
Cards	2.10	1.70
Opponent cards	2.40	2.50
Match total	4.50	4.20	4.55
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.