Moreirense
Attack—
Defense risk—
Primeira Liga
Gameweek 6 Mon, Sep 14 · 20:15
Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, Moreira de Cónegos
Our take
Moreirense were slight favourites.
Moreirense were the stronger side on L90 Strength (26 vs 16). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Maritimo. Moreirense had 5 days of rest, Maritimo 9.1 and had to travel 1,230 km.
Away travel1,230 kmRest days5 · 9.1Matches / 14d2 · 1
Moreirense46%
Draw26%
Maritimo28%
Moreirense53%
Draw24%
Maritimo23%
Moreirense46%
Draw26%
Maritimo28%
Moreirense39%
Draw27%
Maritimo34%
Moreirense47%
Draw25%
Maritimo28%
Over 2.5 46%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Moreira de Cónegos)
No weather data yet
Referee—Not recorded
Team strength
Moreirense
Maritimo
26
L90 StrengthIn forecast
16
25
Current StrengthIn forecast
16
17
AttackIn forecast
15
27
DefenceIn forecast
20
31
Form indexContext
43
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisMaritimo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
MoreirenseMaritimo
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
2.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
0.33
xGVia Att/Def
1.25
1.44
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.22
+0.47
Goals minus xGContext
-0.05
60%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
6.60
ShotsContext
10.80
2.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.40
36%
On target shareContext
32%
3.40
Shots in the boxContext
7.80
53%
Box shareContext
71%
12%
ConversionContext
11%
—
OffsidesContext
1.00
17.00
Shots allowedContext
12.80
6.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.60
3.60
BlocksContext
3.25
3.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
60%
Save rateContext
71%
36%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
319
PassesContext
352
234
Accurate passesContext
277
74%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.31
Team ratingContext
6.66
14.20
FoulsContext
15.60
13.00
Fouls sufferedContext
12.40
3.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
0.64
xGVia Att/Def
1.25
1.41
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.22
+0.26
Goals minus xGContext
-0.05
60%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
8.60
ShotsContext
14.50
3.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.10
35%
On target shareContext
28%
4.80
Shots in the boxContext
10.44
56%
Box shareContext
67%
11%
ConversionContext
8%
1.00
OffsidesContext
1.33
13.60
Shots allowedContext
12.50
4.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.60
3.50
BlocksContext
3.22
2.78
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.22
58%
Save rateContext
67%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
392
PassesContext
369
313
Accurate passesContext
297
80%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.53
Team ratingContext
6.76
13.50
FoulsContext
16.20
13.20
Fouls sufferedContext
12.80
2.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.90
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Moreirense
DLWLL
Rest5 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km70 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 31 · 4 pts vs 6.3 for an average club · -0.1 vs expected
Maritimo
WWDLL
Rest9.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel1,230 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Form 43 · 7 pts vs 7.8 for an average club · +2.3 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Moreirense |
Maritimo |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 9 Sep | 9.1Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 5 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,230 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 70 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.8 | 4.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Moreirense
Confirmed XI
13André Ferreira(G)
27Kiko
26Maracás
66G. Dambi Batista
76Dinis Pinto
8M. Stjepanović
23N. John
19Tiago Andrade
7Manuel Mendonça
10Kiko Bondoso
79L. Vonić
Maritimo
Confirmed XI
13Alfonso Pastor(G)
23Paulo Henrique
44Romain Correia
4Rafael Fernandes
2Igor Julião
6Rodrigo Andrade
18V. Danilović
14R. Guzzo
10Martín Tejón
17Adrián Butzke
35B. Limbombe
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Moreirense
Absences are shown before kick-off
Maritimo
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Moreirense+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Maritimo+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Moreirense · Home
0.50points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 3.00
Maritimo · Away
1.50points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-1
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | Moreirense | Maritimo |
|---|---|---|
| Benfica | L 0–4 H | L 0–3 H |
| Casa Pia | W 1–0 A | W 1–0 H |
| Arouca | L 0–4 A | L 1–2 A |
| Points | 3 of 9 · 1.00 per game | 3 of 9 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Moreirense | Maritimo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.80 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.40 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 3.20 | 2.80 | 2.53 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 80% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 20% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Moreirense | Maritimo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.90 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 2.80 | 2.53 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 80% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 5 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Moreirense | Maritimo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.40 | 2.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.60 | 4.60 | |
| Match total | 8.00 | 7.20 | 8.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 2/5 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 2/5 | 0% 0/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/5 | 0% 0/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.60 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 2.80 | |
| Match total | 5.40 | 4.60 | 4.30 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 5/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 3/5 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Moreirense | Maritimo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.30 | 4.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.60 | 4.60 | |
| Match total | 7.90 | 8.80 | 8.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 10% 1/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.80 | 3.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.80 | |
| Match total | 4.80 | 5.90 | 4.30 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Moreirense5 games · scored 4 · conceded 12
1
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
3
31-45
3
46-60
2
61-75
1
1
76-90
Maritimo5 games · scored 6 · conceded 8
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
31-45
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
2
1
76-90
Moreirense10 games · scored 9 · conceded 20
2
3
0-15
3
4
16-30
1
4
31-45
4
46-60
1
2
61-75
2
3
76-90
Maritimo10 games · scored 12 · conceded 17
1
3
0-15
2
1
16-30
1
5
31-45
1
46-60
3
2
61-75
5
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
