Moreirense
Attack—
Defense risk—
Primeira Liga
Gameweek 19 Sat, Jan 24 · 15:30
Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, Moreira de Cónegos
Our take
Moreirense were slight favourites.
Moreirense were the stronger side on L90 Strength (32 vs 23). Moreirense had 6.9 days of rest, Santa Clara 6 and had to travel 1,537 km.
Away travel1,537 kmRest days6.9 · 6Matches / 14d2 · 2
Moreirense50%
Draw26%
Santa Clara24%
Moreirense50%
Draw26%
Santa Clara24%
Moreirense50%
Draw26%
Santa Clara24%
Moreirense42%
Draw28%
Santa Clara30%
Moreirense50%
Draw26%
Santa Clara24%
Over 2.5 48%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Moreira de Cónegos)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalJoao Pedro Pinheiro
- Cards per match 4.6
- Penalties per match 0.25
- Matches 91
Team strength
Moreirense
Santa Clara
32
L90 StrengthIn forecast
23
25
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
17
AttackIn forecast
29
27
DefenceIn forecast
53
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSanta Clara
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
MoreirenseSanta Clara
1.39
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.78
1.44
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.11
1.10
xGVia Att/Def
1.09
1.41
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.03
+0.29
Goals minus xGContext
-0.31
78%
Scored inContext
56%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
28%
9.61
ShotsContext
11.44
3.76
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.59
37%
On target shareContext
30%
5.67
Shots in the boxContext
6.61
59%
Box shareContext
57%
15%
ConversionContext
7%
1.71
OffsidesContext
2.21
12.50
Shots allowedContext
9.39
4.44
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.88
3.18
BlocksContext
2.17
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.88
68%
Save rateContext
73%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
424
PassesContext
367
355
Accurate passesContext
296
84%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.75
Team ratingContext
6.77
13.72
FoulsContext
14.17
14.61
Fouls sufferedContext
15.17
2.56
Yellow cardsContext
2.89
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.06
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.02
xGVia Att/Def
1.08
1.29
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.01
+0.28
Goals minus xGContext
-0.28
80%
Scored inContext
50%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
9.70
ShotsContext
11.70
3.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.44
39%
On target shareContext
27%
5.20
Shots in the boxContext
6.20
54%
Box shareContext
51%
13%
ConversionContext
7%
1.63
OffsidesContext
2.13
11.40
Shots allowedContext
9.30
4.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.60
2.80
BlocksContext
2.25
2.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
63%
Save rateContext
69%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
445
PassesContext
366
374
Accurate passesContext
294
84%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.71
Team ratingContext
6.79
13.20
FoulsContext
14.80
15.00
Fouls sufferedContext
14.10
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Moreirense
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km566 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Santa Clara
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel1,537 km1,927 km in 14d
Schedule load25%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Moreirense |
Santa Clara |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Moderate · 25 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 17 Jan | 6Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 18 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,537 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 566 km | 1,927 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.2 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Moreirense
Confirmed XI
13André Ferreira(G)
17Álvaro Martínez
26Maracás
66G. Dambi Batista
76Dinis Pinto
8M. Stjepanović
21Rodri Alonso
10Kiko Bondoso
11Alan
2Diogo Travassos
9Luís Semedo
Santa Clara
Confirmed XI
1Gabriel Batista(G)
21F. Ferrão Venâncio
13Luís Rocha
23Sidney Lima
42Lucas Soares
8Pedro Ferreira
35Serginho
2Diogo Calila
77Gustavo Klismahn
70Vinícius Lopes
10Gabriel Silva
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Moreirense
Absences are shown before kick-off
Santa Clara
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Moreirense+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Santa Clara+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Moreirense · Home
2.00points per game · 8 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-1-2
- Scored
- 1.63
- Conceded
- 1.38
Santa Clara · Away
0.75points per game · 8 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-3-4
- Scored
- 0.88
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Moreirense | Santa Clara |
|---|---|---|
| Alverca | L 1–2 AW 2–1 H | W 2–1 H |
| Tondela | W 1–0 H | L 1–2 H |
| AVS | W 2–0 A | W 2–0 H |
| Estrela | D 0–0 A | D 0–0 H |
| Benfica | L 0–4 H | D 1–1 A |
| Estoril | D 3–3 A | W 1–0 A |
| Famalicao | D 2–2 H | L 0–1 HL 0–3 A |
| SC Braga | L 1–2 A | L 0–1 A |
| Arouca | W 2–0 A | D 0–0 H |
| FC Porto | L 1–2 H | L 0–1 H |
| Nacional | L 2–3 A | D 3–3 A |
| Casa Pia | W 2–1 H | W 1–0 H |
| Sporting CP | L 0–3 A | L 1–2 H |
| Rio Ave | W 3–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| GIL Vicente | L 0–2 A | L 0–1 A |
| Guimaraes | W 2–0 H | L 1–2 A |
| Points | 24 of 51 · 1.41 per game | 17 of 51 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
2 Moreirense wins1 draws0 Santa Clara wins
Goals per game1.00 – 0.33
Over 2.50%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets67% · 0%
- 17 Aug 2025Santa Clara0–1Moreirense
- 9 Mar 2025Santa Clara1–1Moreirense
- 5 Oct 2024Moreirense1–0Santa Clara
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Moreirense | Santa Clara | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.39 | 0.78 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.44 | 1.11 | |
| Match goals | 2.83 | 1.89 | 2.60 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 61% | 33% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 28% | 6% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 39% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 28% | |
| Failed to score | 22% | 44% | |
| Games | 18 | 18 |
| Moreirense | Santa Clara | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 0.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 1.80 | 2.60 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 40% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 20% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 30% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Moreirense | Santa Clara | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.31 | 4.43 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.81 | 4.79 | |
| Match total | 8.12 | 9.22 | 9.14 |
| Over 8.5 | 38% 6/16 | 64% 9/14 | |
| Over 9.5 | 31% 5/16 | 50% 7/14 | |
| Over 10.5 | 6% 1/16 | 36% 5/14 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.67 | 3.06 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.11 | 3.11 | |
| Match total | 4.78 | 6.17 | 5.36 |
| Over 3.5 | 61% 11/18 | 83% 15/18 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 9/18 | 67% 12/18 | |
| Moreirense | Santa Clara | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 4.78 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.44 | 4.78 | |
| Match total | 7.44 | 9.56 | 9.14 |
| Over 8.5 | 22% 2/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 11% 1/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 3.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 2.60 | |
| Match total | 4.60 | 5.70 | 5.36 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Joao Pedro Pinheiro Portugal · 91 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.43league 5.01
Red cards0.20league 0.29
Cards 5+46%league 60%
Fouls25.8league 27.3
Penalties0.25league 0.47
Home wins41%league 37%
Moreirense4 with this referee
Record2-0-2
Cards · opp.3.0 · 1.8
Pens for · against2 · 1
- L9 Nov 25A · SC Braga1–22
- W23 Aug 25H · Guimaraes2–05
- W15 Feb 25H · Casa Pia3–23
- L4 Feb 24A · SC Braga0–12
Santa Clara4 with this referee
Record2-1-1
Cards · opp.3.0 · 3.8
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds1
- D12 Sep 25A · Benfica1–12
- W7 Dec 24H · Rio Ave1–02
- W11 Aug 24A · Estoril4–13
- L9 Sep 22A · Guimaraes0–15
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Moreirense18 games · scored 25 · conceded 26
6
2
0-15
2
3
16-30
1
3
31-45
6
7
46-60
6
3
61-75
4
8
76-90
Santa Clara18 games · scored 14 · conceded 20
6
3
0-15
4
16-30
1
3
31-45
1
4
46-60
1
4
61-75
5
2
76-90
Moreirense10 games · scored 13 · conceded 15
3
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
5
46-60
3
3
61-75
3
2
76-90
Santa Clara10 games · scored 8 · conceded 10
4
1
0-15
2
16-30
1
3
31-45
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
