Moreirense
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Primeira Liga
Gameweek 19 Sat, Jan 24 · 15:30
Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, Moreira de Cónegos
Moreirense49.8%fair odds 2.01
Draw26.5%fair odds 3.78
Santa Clara23.7%fair odds 4.21
Expected goals1.58 – 1.02total 2.60
Likeliest score1–112.6%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Santa Clara
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Moreirense ↓ · Santa Clara → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 6.9 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.6 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.5 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Moreirense goals, columns Santa Clara goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.6%7.93
- 1–011.2%8.97
- 2–19.5%10.58
- 2–09.3%10.74
- 0–08.1%12.35
- 0–16.9%14.39
- 1–26.1%16.44
- 3–15.0%20.09
- 3–04.9%20.41
- 2–24.8%20.82
Winning margin
10.9%
Moreirense by 3+
fair 9.17
15.4%
Moreirense by 2
fair 6.50
23.5%
Moreirense by 1
fair 4.25
26.5%
Draw
fair 3.78
14.9%
Santa Clara by 1
fair 6.71
6.4%
Santa Clara by 2
fair 15.69
2.5%
Santa Clara by 3+
fair 40.38
Goal distribution
Total goals
8%0
18%1
26%2
22%3
14%4
12%5+
Moreirense goals
21%0
33%1
26%2
14%3
8%4+
Santa Clara goals
36%0
37%1
19%2
6%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moreirense win | 49.8% | 50.3% | -0.5 pp |
| Draw | 26.5% | 25.6% | +0.8 pp |
| Santa Clara win | 23.7% | 24.1% | -0.3 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 48.0% | 51.5% | -3.5 pp |
| Both teams score | 51.3% | 54.0% | -2.8 pp |
| Expected goals Moreirense | 1.58 | 1.66 | -0.08 |
| Expected goals Santa Clara | 1.02 | 1.08 | -0.06 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Moreirense win49.8%2.01
- Draw26.5%3.78
- Santa Clara win23.7%4.21
- Double chance Moreirense or draw76.3%1.31
- Double chance Moreirense or Santa Clara73.5%1.36
- Double chance Santa Clara or draw50.2%1.99
- Draw no bet Moreirense67.7%1.48
- Draw no bet Santa Clara32.3%3.10
Goals
- Over 0.591.9%1.09
- Over 1.573.8%1.35
- Over 2.548.0%2.08
- Over 3.526.3%3.80
- Over 4.512.2%8.20
- Under 1.526.2%3.82
- Under 2.552.0%1.92
- Under 3.573.7%1.36
Both teams to score
- Yes51.3%1.95
- No48.7%2.05
- Yes and over 2.538.7%2.59
- Moreirense win and yes21.7%4.61
- Draw and yes18.4%5.45
- Santa Clara win and yes11.2%8.91
Team goals
- Moreirense over 0.579.4%1.26
- Moreirense over 1.546.8%2.14
- Moreirense over 2.521.1%4.73
- Santa Clara over 0.563.8%1.57
- Santa Clara over 1.527.0%3.70
- Santa Clara over 2.58.3%12.01
- Moreirense clean sheet36.2%2.76
- Santa Clara clean sheet20.6%4.85
- Moreirense win to nil28.1%3.56
- Santa Clara win to nil12.5%7.99
Handicap
- Moreirense −1.526.3%3.80
- Moreirense −2.510.9%9.17
- Santa Clara +1.573.7%1.36
- Santa Clara +2.589.1%1.12
- Santa Clara −1.58.8%11.30
- Moreirense +1.591.2%1.10
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Primeira Liga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored163
Favourite won59.5%
Avg chance given to result43.9%
1X2 Brier0.539
Over 2.5 called right58.3%
BTTS called right55.8%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 29 | 37.6% | 41.4% |
| 40–50% | 56 | 44.8% | 50.0% |
| 50–60% | 35 | 54.3% | 60.0% |
| 60–70% | 21 | 65.5% | 85.7% |
| 70–80% | 17 | 75.6% | 76.5% |
| 80%+ | 5 | 84.8% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 134 of 163 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5357 | 0.5184 |
| Avg chance given to result | 44.1% | 46.0% |
| Favourite won | 60.4% | 60.4% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 134 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
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- ✓Tondela 0–1 SC Braga17·23·60
- ✓Santa Clara 0–1 Famalicao35·28·37
- ✓Rio Ave 0–2 Benfica14·22·64
- ✓AVS 0–1 Arouca31·28·41
- ✓Alverca 2–1 Moreirense37·28·35
- ✓GIL Vicente 2–1 Nacional51·26·23
- ✓Sporting CP 3–0 Casa Pia82·13·5
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 163 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.