Moreirense
Attack—
Defense risk—
Primeira Liga
Gameweek 16 Sun, Jan 11 · 18:00
Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, Moreira de Cónegos
Our take
Moreirense were slight favourites.
Moreirense were the stronger side on L90 Strength (33 vs 17). Moreirense had 7.9 days of rest, Tondela 8.1 and had to travel 99 km.
Away travel99 kmRest days7.9 · 8.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
Moreirense56%
Draw25%
Tondela19%
Moreirense56%
Draw24%
Tondela20%
Moreirense56%
Draw25%
Tondela19%
Moreirense48%
Draw27%
Tondela25%
Moreirense56%
Draw24%
Tondela20%
Over 2.5 48%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Moreira de Cónegos)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalSergio Guelho
- Cards per match 4.4
- Penalties per match 0.13
- Matches 16
Team strength
Moreirense
Tondela
33
L90 StrengthIn forecast
17
25
Current StrengthIn forecast
18
17
AttackIn forecast
16
27
DefenceIn forecast
29
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisTondela
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
MoreirenseTondela
1.44
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.75
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.75
1.12
xGVia Att/Def
1.21
1.40
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.55
+0.32
Goals minus xGContext
-0.46
75%
Scored inContext
44%
31%
Clean sheetsContext
13%
9.75
ShotsContext
11.06
3.87
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.63
37%
On target shareContext
33%
5.63
Shots in the boxContext
6.56
57%
Box shareContext
59%
15%
ConversionContext
7%
1.75
OffsidesContext
3.00
12.63
Shots allowedContext
13.00
4.69
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.44
3.13
BlocksContext
3.13
3.19
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
68%
Save rateContext
72%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
409
PassesContext
309
340
Accurate passesContext
243
83%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.74
Team ratingContext
6.69
14.63
FoulsContext
13.75
14.63
Fouls sufferedContext
12.00
2.75
Yellow cardsContext
2.81
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.06
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
1.15
xGVia Att/Def
1.14
1.41
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.50
+0.35
Goals minus xGContext
-0.14
80%
Scored inContext
60%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
10.20
ShotsContext
10.50
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.10
39%
On target shareContext
30%
5.60
Shots in the boxContext
6.00
55%
Box shareContext
57%
15%
ConversionContext
10%
1.88
OffsidesContext
2.44
12.40
Shots allowedContext
13.10
4.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.50
2.70
BlocksContext
3.20
2.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.22
61%
Save rateContext
75%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
401
PassesContext
304
330
Accurate passesContext
234
82%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.66
Team ratingContext
6.65
14.60
FoulsContext
14.40
14.80
Fouls sufferedContext
11.90
2.70
Yellow cardsContext
3.30
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Moreirense
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Tondela
Rest8.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel99 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Moreirense |
Tondela |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 3 Jan | 8.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 3 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 99 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
Moreirense
Confirmed XI
22Caio Secco(G)
17Álvaro Martínez
26Maracás
3Michel
2Diogo Travassos
21Rodri Alonso
25Afonso Assis
11Alan
10Kiko Bondoso
9Luís Semedo
7Cedric Teguia
Tondela
Confirmed XI
31Bernardo Fontes(G)
60N. Maviram
20Brayan Medina
4Christian Marques
2Bebeto
32Juan Rodríguez
97Cicero
10J. Hodge
79Hugo Félix
29J. Siebatcheu
7Pedro Henryque
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Moreirense
Absences are shown before kick-off
Tondela
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Moreirense+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Tondela+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Moreirense · Home
1.86points per game · 7 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-1-2
- Scored
- 1.71
- Conceded
- 1.57
Tondela · Away
0.88points per game · 8 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-5
- Scored
- 0.75
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Moreirense | Tondela |
|---|---|---|
| AVS | W 2–0 A | D 2–2 A |
| Estrela | D 0–0 A | D 0–0 H |
| Benfica | L 0–4 H | L 0–3 A |
| Estoril | D 3–3 A | D 2–2 H |
| Famalicao | D 2–2 H | L 0–1 H |
| SC Braga | L 1–2 A | L 0–3 A |
| Arouca | W 2–0 A | W 3–1 H |
| FC Porto | L 1–2 H | L 0–2 H |
| Nacional | L 2–3 A | L 1–3 A |
| Casa Pia | W 2–1 H | L 1–2 H |
| Sporting CP | L 0–3 A | L 0–3 H |
| Rio Ave | W 3–1 H | L 0–3 A |
| GIL Vicente | L 0–2 A | W 1–0 A |
| Guimaraes | W 2–0 H | L 0–1 H |
| Santa Clara | W 1–0 A | W 2–1 A |
| Alverca | W 2–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Points | 24 of 48 · 1.50 per game | 12 of 48 · 0.75 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Moreirense | Tondela | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.44 | 0.75 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.75 | |
| Match goals | 2.94 | 2.50 | 2.61 |
| Over 1.5 | 88% | 69% | |
| Over 2.5 | 63% | 63% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 31% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 38% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 31% | 13% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 56% | |
| Games | 16 | 16 |
| Moreirense | Tondela | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 3.20 | 2.80 | 2.61 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 70% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Moreirense | Tondela | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.33 | 3.75 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.93 | 5.50 | |
| Match total | 8.26 | 9.25 | 9.18 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 6/15 | 50% 8/16 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 5/15 | 44% 7/16 | |
| Over 10.5 | 7% 1/15 | 38% 6/16 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.88 | 2.94 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.19 | 2.38 | |
| Match total | 5.07 | 5.32 | 5.42 |
| Over 3.5 | 69% 11/16 | 75% 12/16 | |
| Over 4.5 | 56% 9/16 | 44% 7/16 | |
| Moreirense | Tondela | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.20 | 4.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.70 | 5.30 | |
| Match total | 7.90 | 9.40 | 9.18 |
| Over 8.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 2/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 10% 1/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.90 | 3.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.60 | 2.70 | |
| Match total | 5.50 | 6.20 | 5.42 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Sergio Guelho Portugal · 16 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.44league 5.09
Red cards0.00league 0.28
Cards 5+38%league 61%
Fouls27.3league 27.4
Penalties0.13league 0.45
Home wins56%league 38%
Moreirense2 with this referee
Record0-1-1
Cards · opp.2.5 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D19 Jan 25H · Farense0–02
- L14 Dec 24A · Nacional0–13
Tondela1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- D31 Aug 25H · Estoril2–21
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Moreirense16 games · scored 23 · conceded 24
6
2
0-15
2
3
16-30
1
3
31-45
6
6
46-60
4
2
61-75
4
8
76-90
Tondela16 games · scored 12 · conceded 28
2
1
0-15
3
16-30
2
7
31-45
3
3
46-60
4
6
61-75
1
8
76-90
Moreirense10 games · scored 15 · conceded 17
5
2
0-15
1
3
16-30
1
2
31-45
3
5
46-60
2
2
61-75
3
3
76-90
Tondela10 games · scored 10 · conceded 18
2
1
0-15
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
3
3
46-60
3
5
61-75
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
