NAC Breda vs Ajax – 25 Apr 2026

Eredivisie Knockout phase Sat, Apr 25 · 19:00 Rat Verlegh Stadion, Breda

NAC Breda 17th · 25 pts · 30 played DLLDD

First leg1–2 0–2Full time

Ajax 5th · 51 pts · 30 played LWDLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Ajax were slight favourites.

Ajax were the stronger side on L90 Strength (48 vs 13). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for NAC Breda. NAC Breda had 13.3 days of rest, Ajax 14 and had to travel 88 km.

Away travel88 kmRest days13.3 · 14Matches / 14d1 · 1

NAC Breda24%

Draw25%

Ajax51%

Expected goals 1.09 – 1.70

NAC Breda20%

Draw24%

Ajax55%

Expected goals 1.00 – 1.79

NAC Breda24%

Draw25%

Ajax51%

Expected goals 1.09 – 1.68

NAC Breda18%

Draw23%

Ajax59%

Expected goals 0.97 – 1.91

NAC Breda24%

Draw26%

Ajax50%

Expected goals 1.03 – 1.59

Over 2.5 53% Both score 55% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Breda)

No weather data yet

Referee · NetherlandsSerdar Gozubuyuk

Cards per match 4.1
Penalties per match 0.29
Matches 101

Team strength

NAC Breda

Ajax

13 L90 StrengthIn forecast 48

14 Current StrengthIn forecast 53

19 AttackIn forecast 66

19 DefenceIn forecast 55

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

NAC Breda

Attack—

Defense risk—

Ajax

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

NAC Breda

Ajax

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.90

1.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.23

1.09 xGVia Att/Def 1.52

1.43 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.28

-0.09 Goals minus xGContext +0.38

60% Scored inContext 93%

17% Clean sheetsContext 27%

13.20 ShotsContext 14.23

4.39 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.87

31% On target shareContext 41%

8.07 Shots in the boxContext 9.87

59% Box shareContext 68%

8% ConversionContext 13%

1.91 OffsidesContext 1.75

12.07 Shots allowedContext 12.77

4.87 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.62

3.07 BlocksContext 3.89

3.52 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.28

69% Save rateContext 71%

49% PossessionIn forecast 57%

392 PassesContext 515

308 Accurate passesContext 441

79% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.73 Team ratingContext 7.02

10.93 FoulsContext 9.87

12.70 Fouls sufferedContext 11.93

1.63 Yellow cardsContext 1.60

0.13 Red cardsContext 0.03

This league season, per match · 30 and 30 games

0.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.80

1.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.10

0.96 xGVia Att/Def 1.23

1.15 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.13

-0.06 Goals minus xGContext +0.57

60% Scored inContext 90%

30% Clean sheetsContext 30%

14.60 ShotsContext 12.10

5.22 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.30

32% On target shareContext 36%

8.00 Shots in the boxContext 7.60

55% Box shareContext 62%

6% ConversionContext 15%

1.75 OffsidesContext 1.75

11.10 Shots allowedContext 11.90

4.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.10

3.88 BlocksContext 3.30

3.43 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.70

71% Save rateContext 66%

51% PossessionIn forecast 55%

391 PassesContext 485

301 Accurate passesContext 406

77% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.66 Team ratingContext 6.98

10.10 FoulsContext 8.80

12.20 Fouls sufferedContext 11.20

1.30 Yellow cardsContext 1.10

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

NAC Breda

Rest13.3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km201 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Ajax

Rest14 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel88 km241 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	NAC Breda	Ajax
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	13.3Eredivisie 2025-2026, 12 Apr	14Eredivisie 2025-2026, 11 Apr
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	88 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	201 km	241 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 2	0 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	6.9	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

NAC Breda Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

99D. Bielica(G)

4B. Kemper 8C. Leemans 20F. Oldrup Jensen 3D. Odoi

14K. Sowah 16M. Balard

11R. Paula 10M. Nassoh 7C. Brym

9M. Soumano

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Ajax Confirmed XI

4-3-3

26M. Paes(G)

2Lucas Rosa 15Y. Baas 37J. Šutalo 3A. Gaaei

10O. Gloukh 6Y. Regeer 24J. Mokio

11M. Godts 25W. Weghorst 23S. Berghuis

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

NAC Breda Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Ajax Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

NAC Breda-0.2 pp
Draw-0.2 pp
Ajax+0.4 pp

Home / Away this season

NAC Breda · Home 1.13points per game · 15 home games

W-D-L: 4-5-6
Scored: 1.20
Conceded: 1.40

Ajax · Away 1.40points per game · 15 away games

W-D-L: 4-9-2
Scored: 1.87
Conceded: 1.60

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	NAC Breda	Ajax
Fortuna Sittard	D 1–1 AW 2–1 H	W 4–1 HW 3–1 A
Sparta Rotterdam	D 0–0 HL 0–1 A	W 4–0 HD 3–3 A
PEC Zwolle	L 1–2 AD 2–2 H	D 0–0 AW 3–1 H
GO Ahead Eagles	L 0–6 AW 1–0 H	D 2–2 HD 2–2 A
Feyenoord	D 3–3 HL 0–2 A	D 1–1 AW 2–0 H
Telstar	L 0–3 AL 0–1 H	W 3–2 AW 2–0 H
FC Volendam	W 1–0 HL 1–2 A	W 2–0 HD 1–1 A
Heracles	W 1–0 AW 2–1 H	W 3–0 AW 2–0 H
Excelsior	L 0–2 HL 0–1 A	D 2–2 AL 1–2 H
Twente	D 2–2 HD 2–2 A	L 1–2 HW 3–2 A
PSV Eindhoven	D 2–2 AL 0–1 H	D 2–2 A
NEC Nijmegen	L 3–4 HL 0–3 A	D 1–1 HD 2–2 A
Groningen	D 0–0 AL 1–2 H	L 1–3 AW 2–0 H
Utrecht	D 1–1 H	L 1–2 A
Heerenveen	D 3–3 A	D 1–1 H
AZ Alkmaar	L 0–1 H	D 1–1 AL 0–2 H
Points	25 of 87 · 0.86 per game	48 of 87 · 1.66 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings

1 NAC Breda wins0 draws2 Ajax wins

Goals per game1.33 – 2.00 Over 2.5100% Both scored100% Clean sheets0% · 0%

27 Sep 2025Ajax2–1NAC Breda
6 Apr 2025Ajax3–1NAC Breda
18 Aug 2024NAC Breda2–1Ajax

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	NAC Breda	Ajax	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.90
Conceded per game	1.70	1.23
Match goals	2.70	3.13	2.79
Over 1.5	67%	97%
Over 2.5	53%	60%	53%
Over 3.5	27%	43%
Both teams scored	50%	70%	55%
Clean sheets	17%	27%
Failed to score	40%	7%
Games	30	30

	NAC Breda	Ajax	Forecast
Scored per game	0.90	1.80
Conceded per game	1.90	1.10
Match goals	2.80	2.90	2.79
Over 1.5	70%	90%
Over 2.5	50%	60%	53%
Over 3.5	30%	40%
Both teams scored	40%	70%	55%
Clean sheets	30%	30%
Failed to score	40%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	NAC Breda	Ajax	League
Corners
Corners won	5.50	4.61
Corners conceded	4.17	5.14
Match total	9.67	9.75	10.25
Over 8.5	63% 19/30	54% 15/28
Over 9.5	50% 15/30	43% 12/28
Over 10.5	47% 14/30	39% 11/28
Cards
Cards	1.83	1.67
Opponent cards	2.00	1.67
Match total	3.83	3.34	3.33
Over 3.5	53% 16/30	40% 12/30
Over 4.5	40% 12/30	30% 9/30

	NAC Breda	Ajax	League
Corners
Corners won	6.30	3.78
Corners conceded	4.50	5.11
Match total	10.80	8.89	10.25
Over 8.5	80% 8/10	44% 4/9
Over 9.5	70% 7/10	44% 4/9
Over 10.5	60% 6/10	44% 4/9
Cards
Cards	1.50	1.20
Opponent cards	1.80	1.40
Match total	3.30	2.60	3.33
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Serdar Gozubuyuk Netherlands · 101 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.00league 3.16

Red cards0.11league 0.17

Cards 5+43%league 26%

Fouls23.1league 21.2

Penalties0.29league 0.23

Home wins50%league 45%

NAC Breda6 with this referee

Record1-2-3 Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.2 Pens for · against0 · 1 Reds2

L27 Feb 26A · Telstar0–34
L6 Feb 26H · Excelsior0–23
D10 Jan 26A · Groningen0–02
L29 Nov 25A · Excelsior0–11
D7 Mar 25H · Sparta Rotterdam1–11

Ajax12 with this referee

Record5-4-3 Cards · opp.1.9 · 1.7 Pens for · against1 · 1

L7 Mar 26A · Groningen1–31
D17 Jan 26H · GO Ahead Eagles2–22
W14 Dec 25H · Feyenoord2–02
W26 Oct 25A · Twente3–22
D21 Sep 25A · PSV Eindhoven2–24

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.