NAC Breda
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
NAC Breda
17th · 25 pts · 30 played
DLLDD
First leg1–2
0–2Full time
Ajax
5th · 51 pts · 30 played
LWDLW
NAC Breda23.7%fair odds 4.22
Draw25.2%fair odds 3.97
Ajax51.1%fair odds 1.96
Expected goals1.09 – 1.70total 2.79
Likeliest score1–112.0%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Ajax
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| NAC Breda ↓ · Ajax → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 9.8 | 8.9 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 12.0 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 6.2 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are NAC Breda goals, columns Ajax goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.0%8.35
- 0–19.8%10.17
- 1–29.7%10.33
- 0–28.9%11.26
- 0–06.7%14.85
- 2–16.2%16.14
- 1–06.1%16.46
- 1–35.5%18.21
- 2–25.3%18.96
- 0–35.0%19.84
Winning margin
2.7%
NAC Breda by 3+
fair 36.96
6.5%
NAC Breda by 2
fair 15.43
14.5%
NAC Breda by 1
fair 6.89
25.2%
Draw
fair 3.97
23.0%
Ajax by 1
fair 4.35
15.8%
Ajax by 2
fair 6.32
12.3%
Ajax by 3+
fair 8.15
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
16%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
15%5+
NAC Breda goals
34%0
37%1
20%2
7%3
2%4+
Ajax goals
18%0
31%1
26%2
15%3
9%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NAC Breda win | 23.7% | 23.9% | -0.2 pp |
| Draw | 25.2% | 26.3% | -1.1 pp |
| Ajax win | 51.1% | 49.8% | +1.3 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 52.9% | 48.8% | +4.1 pp |
| Both teams score | 54.9% | 51.9% | +2.9 pp |
| Expected goals NAC Breda | 1.09 | 1.03 | +0.06 |
| Expected goals Ajax | 1.70 | 1.59 | +0.11 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- NAC Breda win23.7%4.22
- Draw25.2%3.97
- Ajax win51.1%1.96
- Double chance NAC Breda or draw48.9%2.04
- Double chance NAC Breda or Ajax74.8%1.34
- Double chance Ajax or draw76.3%1.31
- Draw no bet NAC Breda31.7%3.16
- Draw no bet Ajax68.3%1.46
Goals
- Over 0.593.3%1.07
- Over 1.577.4%1.29
- Over 2.552.9%1.89
- Over 3.530.6%3.26
- Over 4.515.1%6.62
- Under 1.522.6%4.42
- Under 2.547.1%2.12
- Under 3.569.4%1.44
Both teams to score
- Yes54.9%1.82
- No45.1%2.22
- Yes and over 2.542.9%2.33
- NAC Breda win and yes12.2%8.19
- Draw and yes18.5%5.41
- Ajax win and yes24.2%4.13
Team goals
- NAC Breda over 0.566.4%1.51
- NAC Breda over 1.529.7%3.36
- NAC Breda over 2.59.8%10.25
- Ajax over 0.581.8%1.22
- Ajax over 1.550.7%1.97
- Ajax over 2.524.3%4.11
- NAC Breda clean sheet18.2%5.49
- Ajax clean sheet33.6%2.97
- NAC Breda win to nil11.5%8.70
- Ajax win to nil26.9%3.72
Handicap
- NAC Breda −1.59.2%10.89
- NAC Breda −2.52.7%36.96
- Ajax +1.590.8%1.10
- Ajax +2.597.3%1.03
- Ajax −1.528.1%3.56
- NAC Breda +1.571.9%1.39
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Eredivisie 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored275
Favourite won52.0%
Avg chance given to result41.3%
1X2 Brier0.585
Over 2.5 called right62.2%
BTTS called right62.2%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 41 | 38.0% | 34.1% |
| 40–50% | 102 | 44.9% | 46.1% |
| 50–60% | 68 | 55.2% | 48.5% |
| 60–70% | 35 | 64.5% | 68.6% |
| 70–80% | 21 | 74.3% | 85.7% |
| 80%+ | 8 | 84.1% | 87.5% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 226 of 275 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5850 | 0.5777 |
| Avg chance given to result | 41.2% | 42.5% |
| Favourite won | 51.3% | 53.5% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 226 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 275 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.