NAC Breda
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Telstar were the stronger side on L90 Strength (23 vs 15). NAC Breda had 6.2 days of rest, Telstar 7.2 and had to travel 98 km.
Away travel98 kmRest days6.2 · 7.2Matches / 14d2 · 1
NAC Breda36%
Draw27%
Telstar37%
NAC Breda36%
Draw27%
Telstar37%
NAC Breda36%
Draw27%
Telstar37%
NAC Breda29%
Draw26%
Telstar44%
NAC Breda36%
Draw27%
Telstar37%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Breda)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsRob Dieperink
- Cards per match 3.5
- Penalties per match 0.26
- Matches 27
Team strength
NAC Breda
Telstar
15
L90 StrengthIn forecast
23
14
Current StrengthIn forecast
22
19
AttackIn forecast
24
19
DefenceIn forecast
13
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisTelstar
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
NAC BredaTelstar
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.19
1.56
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.69
1.21
xGVia Att/Def
1.38
1.63
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.87
-0.21
Goals minus xGContext
-0.19
63%
Scored inContext
69%
6%
Clean sheetsContext
13%
13.13
ShotsContext
13.06
4.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.73
31%
On target shareContext
34%
8.25
Shots in the boxContext
8.31
61%
Box shareContext
62%
8%
ConversionContext
9%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.38
12.38
Shots allowedContext
15.81
5.19
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.00
2.80
BlocksContext
4.81
3.56
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.31
69%
Save rateContext
72%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
398
PassesContext
356
317
Accurate passesContext
278
80%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.89
11.63
FoulsContext
10.81
13.06
Fouls sufferedContext
10.94
1.69
Yellow cardsContext
1.44
0.19
Red cardsContext
0.06
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.17
xGVia Att/Def
1.44
1.35
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.11
-0.17
Goals minus xGContext
-0.04
70%
Scored inContext
80%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
14.30
ShotsContext
13.00
4.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.44
29%
On target shareContext
31%
8.70
Shots in the boxContext
8.00
61%
Box shareContext
60%
7%
ConversionContext
11%
1.86
OffsidesContext
2.38
9.90
Shots allowedContext
17.00
4.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.30
2.00
BlocksContext
5.30
3.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.70
68%
Save rateContext
75%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
427
PassesContext
345
343
Accurate passesContext
265
81%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.71
Team ratingContext
6.92
11.30
FoulsContext
10.30
12.40
Fouls sufferedContext
11.00
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.30
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
NAC Breda
Rest6.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km85 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Telstar
Rest7.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel98 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| NAC Breda |
Telstar |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.2Eredivisie 2025-2026, 14 Dec | 7.2Eredivisie 2025-2026, 13 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 98 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 85 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 21 | 21.7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
NAC Breda
Confirmed XI
99D. Bielica(G)
4B. Kemper
22R. Hillen
3D. Odoi
25C. Valerius
14K. Sowah
16M. Balard
11R. Paula
8C. Leemans
32J. Talvitie
90L. Holtby
Telstar
Confirmed XI
1R. Koeman(G)
6D. Bakker
4G. Offerhaus
14Nigel Ogidi Nwankwo
2J. Hardeveld
8T. Owusu
17N. Rossen
11T. Noslin
27P. Brouwer
39J. Ritmeester van de Kamp
9Milan Zonneveld
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences NAC Breda
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Telstar
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- NAC Breda-0.1 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Telstar+0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
NAC Breda · Home
1.38points per game · 8 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-2-3
- Scored
- 1.13
- Conceded
- 1.13
Telstar · Away
0.71points per game · 7 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-4
- Scored
- 0.57
- Conceded
- 1.14
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | NAC Breda | Telstar |
|---|---|---|
| Utrecht | D 1–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| Sparta Rotterdam | L 0–1 A | L 0–1 A |
| Excelsior | L 0–1 A | D 2–2 H |
| PSV Eindhoven | L 0–1 H | W 2–0 A |
| FC Volendam | L 1–2 A | D 2–2 H |
| GO Ahead Eagles | W 1–0 H | W 4–2 H |
| Heerenveen | D 3–3 A | L 2–3 H |
| PEC Zwolle | D 2–2 H | L 0–2 H |
| Groningen | L 1–2 H | L 0–2 A |
| Ajax | L 1–2 A | L 0–2 A |
| Heracles | W 2–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Twente | D 2–2 A | D 0–0 A |
| AZ Alkmaar | L 0–1 H | L 1–2 A |
| NEC Nijmegen | L 0–3 A | D 2–2 H |
| Fortuna Sittard | W 2–1 H | L 1–3 H |
| Feyenoord | L 0–2 A | L 1–2 H |
| Points | 13 of 48 · 0.81 per game | 12 of 48 · 0.75 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| NAC Breda | Telstar | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.19 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.56 | 1.69 | |
| Match goals | 2.56 | 2.88 | 2.76 |
| Over 1.5 | 69% | 88% | |
| Over 2.5 | 56% | 50% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 19% | 38% | |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 63% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 6% | 13% | |
| Failed to score | 38% | 31% | |
| Games | 16 | 16 |
| NAC Breda | Telstar | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 3.00 | 2.76 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 60% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| NAC Breda | Telstar | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.25 | 4.87 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.81 | 6.47 | |
| Match total | 9.06 | 11.34 | 10.15 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 9/16 | 80% 12/15 | |
| Over 9.5 | 38% 6/16 | 67% 10/15 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 6/16 | 60% 9/15 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.94 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.13 | 1.81 | |
| Match total | 4.07 | 3.31 | 3.60 |
| Over 3.5 | 56% 9/16 | 38% 6/16 | |
| Over 4.5 | 44% 7/16 | 31% 5/16 | |
| NAC Breda | Telstar | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.10 | 4.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.50 | 6.50 | |
| Match total | 9.60 | 10.90 | 10.15 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 1.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Rob Dieperink Netherlands · 27 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.30league 3.37
Red cards0.19league 0.22
Cards 5+30%league 32%
Fouls21.7league 21.8
Penalties0.26league 0.31
Home wins30%league 48%
NAC Breda1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W19 Jan 25H · Twente2–12
Telstar1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W13 May 25H · ADO Den Haag2–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
NAC Breda16 games · scored 16 · conceded 25
1
4
0-15
3
3
16-30
3
4
31-45
5
5
46-60
3
61-75
4
6
76-90
Telstar16 games · scored 19 · conceded 27
2
3
0-15
3
5
16-30
5
5
31-45
1
2
46-60
5
3
61-75
3
9
76-90
NAC Breda10 games · scored 10 · conceded 15
1
0-15
2
3
16-30
3
4
31-45
3
3
46-60
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
Telstar10 games · scored 14 · conceded 16
2
1
0-15
2
3
16-30
2
5
31-45
1
1
46-60
4
2
61-75
3
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
