NAC Breda
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
NAC Breda36.4%fair odds 2.75
Draw26.8%fair odds 3.73
Telstar36.9%fair odds 2.71
Expected goals1.37 – 1.39total 2.76
Likeliest score1–112.7%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Telstar
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| NAC Breda ↓ · Telstar → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 8.1 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 12.7 | 8.3 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.3 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are NAC Breda goals, columns Telstar goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.7%7.88
- 1–28.3%11.98
- 2–18.3%12.08
- 0–18.1%12.29
- 1–08.1%12.40
- 0–07.0%14.33
- 0–26.1%16.45
- 2–06.0%16.72
- 2–25.7%17.44
- 1–33.9%25.94
Winning margin
6.1%
NAC Breda by 3+
fair 16.33
10.8%
NAC Breda by 2
fair 9.26
19.4%
NAC Breda by 1
fair 5.15
26.8%
Draw
fair 3.73
19.6%
Telstar by 1
fair 5.10
11.0%
Telstar by 2
fair 9.11
6.3%
Telstar by 3+
fair 15.88
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
16%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
15%5+
NAC Breda goals
25%0
35%1
24%2
11%3
5%4+
Telstar goals
25%0
35%1
24%2
11%3
5%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NAC Breda win | 36.4% | 35.7% | +0.6 pp |
| Draw | 26.8% | 27.1% | -0.4 pp |
| Telstar win | 36.9% | 37.1% | -0.2 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 52.1% | 50.6% | +1.5 pp |
| Both teams score | 56.6% | 55.5% | +1.2 pp |
| Expected goals NAC Breda | 1.37 | 1.33 | +0.04 |
| Expected goals Telstar | 1.39 | 1.36 | +0.02 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- NAC Breda win36.4%2.75
- Draw26.8%3.73
- Telstar win36.9%2.71
- Double chance NAC Breda or draw63.1%1.58
- Double chance NAC Breda or Telstar73.2%1.37
- Double chance Telstar or draw63.6%1.57
- Draw no bet NAC Breda49.6%2.01
- Draw no bet Telstar50.4%1.99
Goals
- Over 0.593.0%1.08
- Over 1.576.8%1.30
- Over 2.552.1%1.92
- Over 3.529.9%3.35
- Over 4.514.6%6.85
- Under 1.523.2%4.31
- Under 2.547.9%2.09
- Under 3.570.1%1.43
Both teams to score
- Yes56.6%1.77
- No43.4%2.31
- Yes and over 2.543.9%2.28
- NAC Breda win and yes18.3%5.47
- Draw and yes19.8%5.05
- Telstar win and yes18.5%5.40
Team goals
- NAC Breda over 0.574.7%1.34
- NAC Breda over 1.539.9%2.51
- NAC Breda over 2.516.0%6.24
- Telstar over 0.575.0%1.33
- Telstar over 1.540.3%2.48
- Telstar over 2.516.3%6.14
- NAC Breda clean sheet25.0%3.99
- Telstar clean sheet25.3%3.95
- NAC Breda win to nil18.1%5.54
- Telstar win to nil18.3%5.45
Handicap
- NAC Breda −1.516.9%5.91
- NAC Breda −2.56.1%16.33
- Telstar +1.583.1%1.20
- Telstar +2.593.9%1.07
- Telstar −1.517.3%5.79
- NAC Breda +1.582.7%1.21
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Eredivisie 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored146
Favourite won52.7%
Avg chance given to result42.1%
1X2 Brier0.565
Over 2.5 called right65.1%
BTTS called right61.0%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 29 | 38.1% | 27.6% |
| 40–50% | 52 | 44.9% | 46.2% |
| 50–60% | 33 | 55.3% | 57.6% |
| 60–70% | 17 | 64.1% | 70.6% |
| 70–80% | 10 | 75.0% | 90.0% |
| 80%+ | 5 | 83.6% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 123 of 146 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5665 | 0.5499 |
| Avg chance given to result | 41.8% | 43.9% |
| Favourite won | 52.0% | 56.1% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 123 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
- ✗NEC Nijmegen 2–2 Ajax38·26·36
- ✓Excelsior 2–1 PEC Zwolle39·27·34
- ✓Heracles 0–3 Heerenveen36·27·38
- ✗NAC Breda 1–1 Utrecht27·26·47
- ✓Twente 2–0 GO Ahead Eagles51·25·24
- ✓Ajax 2–0 Feyenoord41·26·33
- ✗Sparta Rotterdam 0–3 Heerenveen43·26·31
- ✓PEC Zwolle 1–0 Fortuna Sittard46·26·28
- ✓PSV Eindhoven 4–3 Heracles86·10·4
- ✓Groningen 3–0 FC Volendam55·24·21
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 146 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.