NAC Breda
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Utrecht were slight favourites.
Utrecht were the stronger side on L90 Strength (35 vs 14). NAC Breda had 7 days of rest, Utrecht 2.9 and had to travel 61 km.
Away travel61 kmRest days7 · 2.9Matches / 14d1 · 2
NAC Breda27%
Draw26%
Utrecht47%
NAC Breda27%
Draw26%
Utrecht46%
NAC Breda28%
Draw26%
Utrecht46%
NAC Breda21%
Draw24%
Utrecht54%
NAC Breda27%
Draw26%
Utrecht47%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Breda)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsJeroen Manschot
- Cards per match 3.4
- Penalties per match 0.30
- Matches 43
Team strength
NAC Breda
Utrecht
14
L90 StrengthIn forecast
35
14
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
19
AttackIn forecast
32
19
DefenceIn forecast
31
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisUtrecht
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
NAC BredaUtrecht
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.73
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.33
1.22
xGVia Att/Def
1.22
1.70
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.34
-0.22
Goals minus xGContext
+0.51
60%
Scored inContext
87%
7%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
13.00
ShotsContext
14.47
4.43
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
32%
On target shareContext
35%
8.20
Shots in the boxContext
9.73
61%
Box shareContext
66%
8%
ConversionContext
12%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.60
12.47
Shots allowedContext
11.73
5.13
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.53
2.93
BlocksContext
4.08
3.47
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.13
68%
Save rateContext
69%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
390
PassesContext
405
308
Accurate passesContext
324
79%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.74
Team ratingContext
6.92
11.73
FoulsContext
11.00
13.13
Fouls sufferedContext
10.40
1.67
Yellow cardsContext
1.20
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.29
xGVia Att/Def
0.83
1.36
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.38
-0.19
Goals minus xGContext
+0.27
70%
Scored inContext
90%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
14.50
ShotsContext
11.10
4.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
30%
On target shareContext
32%
9.30
Shots in the boxContext
7.00
64%
Box shareContext
60%
8%
ConversionContext
10%
1.86
OffsidesContext
1.67
9.90
Shots allowedContext
14.60
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.90
2.00
BlocksContext
4.00
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.20
67%
Save rateContext
71%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
41%
425
PassesContext
344
341
Accurate passesContext
267
80%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.70
Team ratingContext
6.75
11.20
FoulsContext
11.90
12.80
Fouls sufferedContext
10.00
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
NAC Breda
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km85 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Utrecht
Rest2.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel61 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| NAC Breda |
Utrecht |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 8 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Eredivisie 2025-2026, 7 Dec | 2.9UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 11 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 61 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 85 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.2 | 6.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
NAC Breda
Confirmed XI
99D. Bielica(G)
4B. Kemper
22R. Hillen
3D. Odoi
25C. Valerius
8C. Leemans
14K. Sowah
16M. Balard
11R. Paula
90L. Holtby
32J. Talvitie
Utrecht
Confirmed XI
1V. Barkas(G)
16S. El Karouani
24N. Viergever
3M. van der Hoorn
23N. Vesterlund
21G. Zechiël
27A. Engwanda
10Y. Cathline
7V. Jensen
22Miguel Rodríguez
20D. de Wit
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences NAC Breda
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Utrecht
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- NAC Breda-0.2 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Utrecht+0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
NAC Breda · Home
1.43points per game · 7 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-1-3
- Scored
- 1.14
- Conceded
- 1.14
Utrecht · Away
0.71points per game · 7 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-4
- Scored
- 1.29
- Conceded
- 1.86
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | NAC Breda | Utrecht |
|---|---|---|
| Sparta Rotterdam | L 0–1 A | L 1–2 A |
| Excelsior | L 0–1 A | W 4–1 H |
| FC Volendam | L 1–2 A | W 3–1 H |
| GO Ahead Eagles | W 1–0 H | D 2–2 A |
| Heerenveen | D 3–3 A | D 2–2 H |
| PEC Zwolle | D 2–2 H | W 2–0 A |
| Groningen | L 1–2 H | L 0–1 H |
| Ajax | L 1–2 A | W 2–1 H |
| Heracles | W 2–1 H | W 4–0 H |
| Twente | D 2–2 A | D 1–1 H |
| AZ Alkmaar | L 0–1 H | L 1–4 A |
| NEC Nijmegen | L 0–3 A | W 1–0 H |
| Fortuna Sittard | W 2–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Feyenoord | L 0–2 A | L 2–3 A |
| Points | 12 of 42 · 0.86 per game | 21 of 42 · 1.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 NAC Breda wins0 draws2 Utrecht wins
Goals per game0.50 – 1.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets0% · 50%
- 1 Mar 2025Utrecht1–0NAC Breda
- 24 Aug 2024NAC Breda1–2Utrecht
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| NAC Breda | Utrecht | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.73 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.33 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 3.07 | 2.80 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 47% | |
| Both teams scored | 53% | 67% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 7% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 13% | |
| Games | 15 | 15 |
| NAC Breda | Utrecht | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 2.70 | 2.80 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 50% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| NAC Breda | Utrecht | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.20 | 4.71 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.73 | 4.29 | |
| Match total | 8.93 | 9.00 | 10.22 |
| Over 8.5 | 53% 8/15 | 43% 6/14 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 5/15 | 36% 5/14 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 5/15 | 36% 5/14 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.93 | 1.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.13 | 1.73 | |
| Match total | 4.06 | 2.93 | 3.59 |
| Over 3.5 | 53% 8/15 | 40% 6/15 | |
| Over 4.5 | 47% 7/15 | 7% 1/15 | |
| NAC Breda | Utrecht | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.50 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.40 | 4.30 | |
| Match total | 9.90 | 8.30 | 10.22 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 3.20 | 3.59 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jeroen Manschot Netherlands · 43 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.26league 3.37
Red cards0.14league 0.22
Cards 5+30%league 32%
Fouls19.8league 21.9
Penalties0.30league 0.31
Home wins51%league 49%
NAC Breda2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.1.5 · 3.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds1
- L31 Aug 25H · AZ Alkmaar0–11
- W20 Oct 24A · PEC Zwolle2–12
Utrecht1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.0.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L5 Oct 25A · Feyenoord2–30
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
NAC Breda15 games · scored 15 · conceded 24
1
4
0-15
2
2
16-30
3
4
31-45
5
5
46-60
3
61-75
4
6
76-90
Utrecht15 games · scored 26 · conceded 20
1
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
6
3
31-45
6
4
46-60
6
3
61-75
5
6
76-90
NAC Breda10 games · scored 11 · conceded 15
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
3
4
31-45
4
3
46-60
2
61-75
3
2
76-90
Utrecht10 games · scored 11 · conceded 16
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
2
3
31-45
5
5
46-60
2
2
61-75
1
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
