Nacional vs Alverca – 18 Apr 2026

Primeira Liga Gameweek 30 Sat, Apr 18 · 15:30 Estádio da Madeira, Ilha da Madeira

Nacional 15th · 25 pts · 29 played DLLWL

1–0Full time

Alverca 10th · 35 pts · 29 played DDLWW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

Alverca were the stronger side on L90 Strength (27 vs 21). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Alverca. Nacional had 5.9 days of rest, Alverca 6 and had to travel 992 km.

Away travel992 kmRest days5.9 · 6Matches / 14d2 · 2

Nacional34%

Draw29%

Alverca36%

Expected goals 1.17 – 1.20

Nacional38%

Draw27%

Alverca35%

Expected goals 1.38 – 1.30

Nacional34%

Draw29%

Alverca36%

Expected goals 1.17 – 1.20

Nacional28%

Draw29%

Alverca43%

Expected goals 1.04 – 1.35

Nacional35%

Draw28%

Alverca37%

Expected goals 1.25 – 1.29

Over 2.5 42% Both score 49% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Ilha da Madeira)

No weather data yet

Referee · PortugalMiguel Nogueira

Cards per match 4.4
Penalties per match 0.24
Matches 62

Team strength

Nacional

Alverca

21 L90 StrengthIn forecast 27

17 Current StrengthIn forecast 30

15 AttackIn forecast 38

13 DefenceIn forecast 42

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Nacional

Attack—

Defense risk—

Alverca

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Nacional

Alverca

1.07 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10

1.41 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.62

1.08 xGVia Att/Def 1.14

1.55 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.28

-0.01 Goals minus xGContext -0.04

66% Scored inContext 76%

17% Clean sheetsContext 21%

12.00 ShotsContext 9.55

4.10 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.78

34% On target shareContext 37%

7.37 Shots in the boxContext 6.15

57% Box shareContext 64%

9% ConversionContext 12%

2.10 OffsidesContext 2.00

14.03 Shots allowedContext 13.69

4.52 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.64

3.97 BlocksContext 4.03

3.18 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.19

69% Save rateContext 67%

45% PossessionIn forecast 45%

320 PassesContext 357

246 Accurate passesContext 288

77% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.77 Team ratingContext 6.79

14.31 FoulsContext 11.86

11.28 Fouls sufferedContext 13.31

2.83 Yellow cardsContext 2.03

0.07 Red cardsContext 0.03

This league season, per match · 29 and 29 games

0.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30

1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40

0.79 xGVia Att/Def 1.25

1.45 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.10

-0.29 Goals minus xGContext +0.05

40% Scored inContext 90%

20% Clean sheetsContext 10%

12.30 ShotsContext 10.90

4.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.70

35% On target shareContext 34%

6.80 Shots in the boxContext 6.56

54% Box shareContext 61%

4% ConversionContext 12%

1.83 OffsidesContext 2.00

12.60 Shots allowedContext 15.00

4.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.10

3.10 BlocksContext 4.00

3.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.70

75% Save rateContext 73%

48% PossessionIn forecast 48%

350 PassesContext 360

277 Accurate passesContext 291

79% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.75 Team ratingContext 6.89

13.80 FoulsContext 10.60

11.00 Fouls sufferedContext 12.70

3.20 Yellow cardsContext 1.40

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Nacional

Rest5.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km1,944 km in 14d

Schedule load5%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Alverca

Rest6 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel992 km548 km in 14d

Schedule load12%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Nacional	Alverca
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 5	Low · 12
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	5.9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 12 Apr	6Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 12 Apr
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	992 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,944 km	548 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 3	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	7	6.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Nacional Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1Kaique(G)

5José Gomes 38Zé Vitor 33Francisco Gonçalves 16Alan Nuñez

28Liziero 15C. Labidi 10Daniel Júnior

11Paulinho Bóia 9J. Ramírez 27Gabriel Veron

Alverca Confirmed XI

3-4-3

31Matheus Mendes(G)

33B. Meupiyou 5Sergi Gómez 4Kaiky Naves

12Isaac James 18Lincoln 26Rhaldney 2Zoubdi

10Chiquinho 91Sandro Lima 20Figueiredo

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Nacional Absences are shown before kick-off

Alverca Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Nacional+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Alverca+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Nacional · Home 1.00points per game · 14 home games

W-D-L: 4-2-8
Scored: 1.36
Conceded: 1.50

Alverca · Away 0.93points per game · 14 away games

W-D-L: 3-4-7
Scored: 1.21
Conceded: 1.86

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Nacional	Alverca
Benfica	L 0–2 AL 1–2 H	L 1–2 AL 1–2 H
Estrela	W 2–0 HD 1–1 A	D 1–1 HD 2–2 A
Famalicao	L 0–1 AL 0–1 H	W 1–0 H
Estoril	L 0–1 HD 1–1 A	L 1–4 A
Moreirense	D 1–1 AW 3–2 H	W 2–1 HL 1–2 A
SC Braga	L 1–2 HW 1–0 A	L 0–5 AL 0–3 H
Arouca	L 0–3 AL 1–2 H	L 0–1 A
FC Porto	L 0–1 HL 0–1 A	L 0–3 H
Casa Pia	D 0–0 HW 2–0 A	W 3–1 HW 2–0 A
Sporting CP	L 1–2 AL 1–4 H	L 1–4 HL 0–2 A
Rio Ave	W 4–0 HD 1–1 A	W 2–1 AD 1–1 H
GIL Vicente	L 1–2 AL 0–2 H	D 2–2 AL 0–4 H
Santa Clara	D 3–3 H	D 1–1 HL 1–2 A
Guimaraes	L 1–2 A	D 1–1 AW 2–0 H
AVS	D 2–2 A	D 0–0 HW 3–1 A
Tondela	W 3–1 H	D 1–1 AW 1–0 H
Points	25 of 84 · 0.89 per game	32 of 84 · 1.14 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings

0 Nacional wins0 draws1 Alverca wins

Goals per game0.00 – 1.00 Over 2.50% Both scored0% Clean sheets0% · 100%

7 Dec 2025Alverca1–0Nacional

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Nacional	Alverca	Forecast
Scored per game	1.07	1.10
Conceded per game	1.41	1.62
Match goals	2.48	2.72	2.37
Over 1.5	72%	83%
Over 2.5	45%	55%	42%
Over 3.5	21%	28%
Both teams scored	52%	59%	49%
Clean sheets	17%	21%
Failed to score	34%	24%
Games	29	29

	Nacional	Alverca	Forecast
Scored per game	0.50	1.30
Conceded per game	1.30	1.40
Match goals	1.80	2.70	2.37
Over 1.5	60%	90%
Over 2.5	30%	50%	42%
Over 3.5	0%	30%
Both teams scored	30%	90%	49%
Clean sheets	20%	10%
Failed to score	60%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Nacional	Alverca	League
Corners
Corners won	4.25	4.19
Corners conceded	6.00	4.86
Match total	10.25	9.05	9.33
Over 8.5	68% 19/28	52% 11/21
Over 9.5	64% 18/28	52% 11/21
Over 10.5	50% 14/28	33% 7/21
Cards
Cards	3.03	2.17
Opponent cards	2.52	2.38
Match total	5.55	4.55	5.08
Over 3.5	76% 22/29	52% 15/29
Over 4.5	72% 21/29	34% 10/29

	Nacional	Alverca	League
Corners
Corners won	4.78	4.88
Corners conceded	5.78	5.88
Match total	10.56	10.76	9.33
Over 8.5	67% 6/9	75% 6/8
Over 9.5	67% 6/9	75% 6/8
Over 10.5	56% 5/9	50% 4/8
Cards
Cards	3.30	1.50
Opponent cards	2.50	2.30
Match total	5.80	3.80	5.08
Over 3.5	90% 9/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	80% 8/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Miguel Nogueira Portugal · 62 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.11league 4.80

Red cards0.27league 0.25

Cards 5+47%league 57%

Fouls25.5league 26.9

Penalties0.24league 0.43

Home wins40%league 41%

Nacional1 with this referee

Record0-0-1 Cards · opp.2.0 · 0.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

L17 Jan 26A · GIL Vicente1–22

Alverca1 with this referee

Record0-0-1 Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.0 Pens for · against0 · 1

L17 Aug 25H · SC Braga0–32

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.